X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Nick Pivetta and Victor Robles

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy baseball viability of SP Nick Pivetta and OF Victor Robles for redraft leagues in 2019. Are they potential sleepers or draft day busts based on ADP?

As a general rule, fantasy owners like to play with shiny new toys. Victor Robles has less than 100 MLB PAs to his credit but is frequently taken just outside the top-100 based on his speed. The current 21-year-old (he turns 22 in May) has talent, but this writer sees several red flags that may limit his value in redraft leagues.

In contrast, fantasy owners tend to abandon shiny new toys as soon as they break. When yesterday's exciting prospect debuts provide mediocre (or worse) results, you can often buy a talented player at a discount. Nick Pivetta illustrates this concept nicely at an ADP of 156.08 this season.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their current ADP. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're being drafted as a Tier-3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're being drafted as a Tier-1 pitcher. Let's take a closer look at Pivetta and Robles, shall we?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Nick Pivetta (SP, PHI) - ADP: 156.08

Pivetta's 4.77 ERA over 164 IP doesn't look great, but his underlying 3.42 xFIP suggests that he actually pitched much better than that. Pivetta's 2017 season went much the same way, as a 6.02 ERA over 133 IP masked a solid 4.26 xFIP. Pivetta improved in most of the areas that matter last season, and he seems primed for a breakout at age 26.

Pivetta's stuff has always been pretty good. In 2017, he struck out 24% of the batters who faced him while walking 9.8%. Both metrics improved last year, with his K% increasing to 27.1% and his BB% decreasing to 7.4%. When a pitcher's K-BB% nears 20%, it's time for fantasy owners to pay attention.

Pivetta features three primary pitches and three more show-me pitches to give hitters a different look. His fastball is elite, averaging 95.4 mph and generating whiffs at a strong 10.1% rate despite an incredibly high Zone% (58%). It's not outstanding by spin rate (2,267 RPM), but hitters clearly have a hard time tracking it.

Once the fastball gets him ahead, Pivetta has two breaking pitches to put hitters away. The first is a curve with a strong 15.4% SwStr% and 41.5% chase rate, making it a great put-away pitch. Pivetta can also drop it in for a strike when he wants to (43.7% Zone%) and rely on its insane spin rate (2,837 RPM, 27th among all MLB pitchers last year) to limit a hitter's productivity.

Alternatively, Pivetta can deliver a slider that generates more whiffs than his curve (16.2% SwStr%) at the cost of lower Zone% (39.8%) and chase rates (35.5%). The rest of Pivetta's arsenal consists of a sinker, change, and cutter. None of them look special in admittedly small samples, but together they add up to 10% of Pivetta's total pitches thrown. That's enough to keep hitters guessing.

The "luck metrics" were not in Pivetta's corner in 2018, as he allowed a 15.8% HR/FB, .326 BABIP, and 69% strand rate. If his arsenal is so strong, why has contact gone so poorly for him? It's not the quality of contact against him, as Baseball Savant projected an xBA of .221 and xSLG of .370 based on the launch angle and exit velocity of his batted balls allowed. For reference, his actual marks were .261 and .423, respectively.

No, the reason behind Pivetta's struggles was the complete lack of defense behind him. Per Statcast's Outs Above Average metric, Rhys Hoskins was worth -20 outs at an outfielder in 2018. That is unfathomably bad, but thankfully the Carlos Santana trade allows the team to move him back to first base. He's still below average there (-2 Defensive Runs Saved in limited time last season), but at least he's playable. Likewise, Nick Williams (-8 OAA) is slated for a platoon role at most this coming season.

The club also acquired Jean Segura to play shortstop in 2019. His five DRS for the Mariners last year is a massive upgrade from the -24 that four players combined for at the position in Philadelphia. Similarly, 3B Maikel Franco will either improve his play (-12 DRS last year) or start losing playing time in favor of Scott Kingery. 2B Cesar Hernandez also left a lot to be desired with the glove (-12 DRS), but he could also lose playing time if he isn't performing.

In summation, Pivetta combines a strong fastball with a high-spin curve and solid slider to generate Ks. The defense behind him should do a lot to control his prior "bad luck" on batted balls, giving Pivetta SP3 and maybe even SP2 potential at a price outside the top-150. That's the kind of profit that wins fantasy leagues.

Verdict: Champ (based on ADP of 156)

 

Victor Robles (OF, WAS) - ADP: 101.57

Fantasy owners are high on Robles, as you usually need to consider using a top-100 pick in order to land him. Robles is nearly a complete unknown, so it's fair to question if he is worth it.

Robles only has 340 PAs in the High Minors, and they were split between Double-A Harrisburg in 2017 and Triple-A Syracuse in 2018. He looked great at Double-A (.324/.394/.489 with three homers in 158 PAs), but an inflated 28.6% LD% inflated his BABIP to a likely unsustainable .368. He also popped up a lot (25% IFFB%, roughly 12.5% in major league terms) for a guy showing minimal power (32.1% FB%, 8.3% HR/FB). At least his plate discipline was good (7.6% BB%, 13.9% K%).

Robles regressed to a .278/.356/.386 triple slash line with two homers in 182 PAs at Triple-A last year. His LD% cratered to 18.2%, bringing his BABIP to a more sustainable .318. He also upped his FB% to 39.4%, but it didn't do him any good with a HR/FB of 3.8%. His IFFB% held at 25 percent, which is a lot of pop-ups coming off of a nearly-40% FB%. His plate discipline remained strong (9.9% BB%, 14.3% K%), but big-league hurlers aren't going to walk somebody with his wheels unless he shows some power.

Robles's fantasy value will come primarily from his speed. He went 22-for-31 in SB attempts in 2014, 24-for-29 in 2015, 37-for-50 in 2016, 27-for-37 in 2017, and 22-for-31 last season. Outside of 2015 (83%), his success rates have hovered in the 71-74% range. That works, but it gives him absolutely no leeway to decline at the highest level if he wants to maintain a green light. Likewise, a pure-speed play who has only eclipsed 30 swipes in one MiLB campaign suggests that he might have a relatively limited upside in the category.

There is also the question of his lineup spot to consider. Both Adam Eaton and Trea Turner profile as perfect leadoff hitters, so it will probably be tough for Robles to escape from the 8th spot in the order. Not only will this limit his R+RBI opportunities, it could also suppress his SB total as many managers are hesitant to run into an out and force the pitcher to lead off the next inning.

Even the 8th spot in the order may be more than Robles is guaranteed. If there is any truth to the rumors that Bryce Harper is considering a return to Washington, Robles seems likely to lose his everyday gig to a Juan Soto/Eaton/Harper outfield. Even if Harper elects not to return, Michael Taylor is passable enough to trot out there if the Nats want to play service time games.

Both Mallex Smith (99.33 ADP) and Jose Peraza (97.25) offer comparable speed with more consistent playing time at roughly the same cost. Alternatively, you can bet on a Josh Donaldson rebound (102.49), Michael Conforto breakout (107.37), or Daniel Murphy at Coors Field (103.18) at the same point in the draft. With unsure playing time, a bad batting order spot, and BABIP red flags, Robles shouldn't be taken at a point in the draft where you're counting on him for Opening Day.

Verdict: Chump (based on ADP of 101.5)

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF