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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on January 4, 2024.
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If we ignore Wednesday’s two-game slate, and we should, then we’ve had back-to-back 13-game slates to try to navigate coming out of the holiday break. We did a great job on Tuesday by focusing on one prime stack and building around it with value; essentially limiting our player pool, which is a strategy we like to do as the slates get larger. Tonight, there looks to be one team that stands out above the rest and much of this article will focus on how to build around that stack (or which stacks we can pivot to in order to get off that stack).
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, with three tournaments priced at $20 or less with a top prize of $1,000 or more; highlighted by the $20-entry Lamplighter with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
New York Rangers (NYR2 - Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafreniere, Adam Fox)*
The Rangers have the best matchup on the slate, and although the data points to their second line being in the most advantageous spot on the team, any of the lines for New York should be a strong play today. In fact, one of the best ways to build this lineup could be to focus on the Rangers’ power play, which is one of the best in the NHL. If I were to run that power play line, I would use Mika Zibanejad instead of Alexis Lafreniere and then find a value line to run with the Rangers.
The reason we want to use the Rangers is that the Blackhawks defense has been awful on the road. Over their last 10 games, they have allowed 4.17 goals and 15.26 high-danger chances per 60 minutes; both of which are slate-high numbers. Even if we were to look at Chicago’s expected goals allowed over their last 10 games, they’d still be a defense to attack as they would be approaching three goals per 60 minutes. I’ll be using the Rangers with a variety of secondary stacks to try to catch lightning in a bottle and take down the slate.
Montreal Canadiens (MTL1 - Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky)
With teams like Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay on the slate, it’s odd to write up a team like Montreal as a top stack. The data is so much in their favor that it’s hard to ignore them, especially as those other “top” stacks don’t have nearly as enticing matchups.
The Canadiens have struggled a bit at home with only 2.25 even-strength goals scored per 60 minutes over their last 10 games, but advanced data paints them as an unlucky bunch as their expected goals per 60 minutes are over half a goal more. The trio of Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky may already be turning things around as they finished their road trip with a combined four goals and five assists over their last three games. Montreal’s last seven games have been on the road, and maybe some home cooking is what they need to keep things rolling.
They have a great matchup against the Sabres, who have allowed 3.07 even-strength goals and 14.89 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games. Advanced data shows that these types of performance are legitimate as the difference between their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes and actual goals allowed is statistically insignificant.
Buffalo has made some changes to their defense, but the one pairing they kept the same is Dahlin/Jokiharju. They’ve been generous when paired together, allowing over five and a half goals and over 17 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road this year. They are a pair well worth attacking.
Arizona Coyotes (ARI1 - Alex Kerfoot, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz)
Much like the Canadiens, it’s weird to consider a midrange team like Arizona as a “top” stack, but their matchup against the Islanders is far too good to ignore. They have allowed 3.51 even-strength goals and 14.64 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road over their last 10 games. Advanced data suggests that they haven’t been unfortunate, as their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes is 3.36; they’re just bad.
All of New York’s defensive pairs rate as “attackable.” The most generous of the pairings have been Reilly/Mayfield and they will spend a large percentage of their time on the ice matched up against Arizona’s top offensive line. Arizona is cheap enough as a stack that you can use them as part of a balanced lineup or as a secondary stack with the Rangers top line (or VAN1, PHI1, MIN1).
Others in consideration: BOS2, PHI1, NYR1, VAN1, MIN1, LAK1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Boston Bruins (BOS3 - Danton Heinen, James van Riemsdyk, Trent Frederic)
This may feel like chasing goals from Tuesday night, but the third line for the Bruins is once again in a great spot to find success tonight. They are playing at home, where their offense has scored 2.53 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games and advanced data shows that they have a little bit of room to grow. This line looks to be paired up with the Letang/Pettersson defensive duo for Pittsburgh, and they have allowed nearly four goals per 60 minutes when paired together this season.
Meanwhile, the Penguins defense has been a little lucky on the road, allowing 0.28 fewer even-strength goals per 60 minutes than expected over their last 10 games. The team has allowed 12.53 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 games on the road, and have been bailed out by Tristan Jarry’s stellar play in goal.
Others in consideration: WPG3, ARI4, SEA2, BUF2
Top Goalies to Target
Joey Daccord (Seattle Kraken)
Over his last four starts, Joey Daccord has allowed four total goals and recorded four wins. He’s scored at least 21 DraftKings points in each of those four starts. During that stretch, Daccord hasn’t seen less than 28 shots against him, with a high of 43 shots faced. Over the course of the year, Daccord is averaging just shy of 30 saves per game, giving him a bit of a ceiling to go along with his relatively high floor.
The last time he faced the Senators, he held them to two goals allowed on 28 shots, and the only thing keeping him from a better score was that his offense got shut out. Data shows that Seattle looks to be in better shape to score today, hopefully taking that concern out of the equation. His price has ping-ponged between $7,200 and $8,100 for the last month or so, and while he’s on the high end of that price range today, he’s still playing so well that it’s hard not to click his name in cash games. He’s a strong option in tournament lineups as well.
Others in consideration (GPP): Tristan Jarry, Carter Hart, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko, Connor Ingram, Sergei Bobrovsky, Alex Lyon
Others in consideration (Cash): Connor Hellebuyck, Cam Talbot
