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NHL DFS Picks and Analysis for January 4, 2024 (Premium Content)

RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on January 4, 2024.

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

If we ignore Wednesday’s two-game slate, and we should, then we’ve had back-to-back 13-game slates to try to navigate coming out of the holiday break. We did a great job on Tuesday by focusing on one prime stack and building around it with value; essentially limiting our player pool, which is a strategy we like to do as the slates get larger. Tonight, there looks to be one team that stands out above the rest and much of this article will focus on how to build around that stack (or which stacks we can pivot to in order to get off that stack). 

DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, with three tournaments priced at $20 or less with a top prize of $1,000 or more; highlighted by the $20-entry Lamplighter with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!

This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.

 

Top Three Stacks of the Night

New York Rangers (NYR2 - Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafreniere, Adam Fox)*

The Rangers have the best matchup on the slate, and although the data points to their second line being in the most advantageous spot on the team, any of the lines for New York should be a strong play today. In fact, one of the best ways to build this lineup could be to focus on the Rangers’ power play, which is one of the best in the NHL. If I were to run that power play line, I would use Mika Zibanejad instead of Alexis Lafreniere and then find a value line to run with the Rangers. 

The reason we want to use the Rangers is that the Blackhawks defense has been awful on the road. Over their last 10 games, they have allowed 4.17 goals and 15.26 high-danger chances per 60 minutes; both of which are slate-high numbers. Even if we were to look at Chicago’s expected goals allowed over their last 10 games, they’d still be a defense to attack as they would be approaching three goals per 60 minutes. I’ll be using the Rangers with a variety of secondary stacks to try to catch lightning in a bottle and take down the slate. 

 

Montreal Canadiens (MTL1 - Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky)

With teams like Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay on the slate, it’s odd to write up a team like Montreal as a top stack. The data is so much in their favor that it’s hard to ignore them, especially as those other “top” stacks don’t have nearly as enticing matchups.

The Canadiens have struggled a bit at home with only 2.25 even-strength goals scored per 60 minutes over their last 10 games, but advanced data paints them as an unlucky bunch as their expected goals per 60 minutes are over half a goal more. The trio of Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky may already be turning things around as they finished their road trip with a combined four goals and five assists over their last three games. Montreal’s last seven games have been on the road, and maybe some home cooking is what they need to keep things rolling.

They have a great matchup against the Sabres, who have allowed 3.07 even-strength goals and 14.89 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games. Advanced data shows that these types of performance are legitimate as the difference between their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes and actual goals allowed is statistically insignificant.

Buffalo has made some changes to their defense, but the one pairing they kept the same is Dahlin/Jokiharju. They’ve been generous when paired together, allowing over five and a half goals and over 17 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road this year. They are a pair well worth attacking. 

Arizona Coyotes (ARI1 - Alex Kerfoot, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz)

Much like the Canadiens, it’s weird to consider a midrange team like Arizona as a “top” stack, but their matchup against the Islanders is far too good to ignore. They have allowed 3.51 even-strength goals and 14.64 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road over their last 10 games. Advanced data suggests that they haven’t been unfortunate, as their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes is 3.36; they’re just bad. 

All of New York’s defensive pairs rate as “attackable.” The most generous of the pairings have been Reilly/Mayfield and they will spend a large percentage of their time on the ice matched up against Arizona’s top offensive line. Arizona is cheap enough as a stack that you can use them as part of a balanced lineup or as a secondary stack with the Rangers top line (or VAN1, PHI1, MIN1). 

Others in consideration: BOS2, PHI1, NYR1, VAN1, MIN1, LAK1

 

Top Value Stack of the Night

Boston Bruins (BOS3 - Danton Heinen, James van Riemsdyk, Trent Frederic)

This may feel like chasing goals from Tuesday night, but the third line for the Bruins is once again in a great spot to find success tonight. They are playing at home, where their offense has scored 2.53 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games and advanced data shows that they have a little bit of room to grow. This line looks to be paired up with the Letang/Pettersson defensive duo for Pittsburgh, and they have allowed nearly four goals per 60 minutes when paired together this season. 

Meanwhile, the Penguins defense has been a little lucky on the road, allowing 0.28 fewer even-strength goals per 60 minutes than expected over their last 10 games. The team has allowed 12.53 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 games on the road, and have been bailed out by Tristan Jarry’s stellar play in goal. 

Others in consideration: WPG3, ARI4, SEA2, BUF2

 

Top Goalies to Target

Joey Daccord (Seattle Kraken)

Over his last four starts, Joey Daccord has allowed four total goals and recorded four wins. He’s scored at least 21 DraftKings points in each of those four starts. During that stretch, Daccord hasn’t seen less than 28 shots against him, with a high of 43 shots faced. Over the course of the year, Daccord is averaging just shy of 30 saves per game, giving him a bit of a ceiling to go along with his relatively high floor.

The last time he faced the Senators, he held them to two goals allowed on 28 shots, and the only thing keeping him from a better score was that his offense got shut out. Data shows that Seattle looks to be in better shape to score today, hopefully taking that concern out of the equation. His price has ping-ponged between $7,200 and $8,100 for the last month or so, and while he’s on the high end of that price range today, he’s still playing so well that it’s hard not to click his name in cash games. He’s a strong option in tournament lineups as well. 

Others in consideration (GPP): Tristan Jarry, Carter Hart, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko, Connor Ingram, Sergei Bobrovsky, Alex Lyon

Others in consideration (Cash): Connor Hellebuyck, Cam Talbot

NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Lamar Jackson

Strikes for Four Touchdowns in First Game Back
Kevon Looney

Doubtful for Friday
Marcus Smart

Could Miss Another Game Friday
Shaedon Sharpe

Considered Probable for Friday
Guerschon Yabusele

Likely to Return Friday
Miles McBride

Returning to Knicks Lineup Friday
Dillon Brooks

Remains Unavailable Friday
Jalen Green

Still Out Friday
Bradley Beal

Ready to Return Friday
Sam Merrill

to Miss Friday's Game
Jakob Poeltl

to Miss Second Straight Game Friday
Cameron Johnson

Listed as Probable for Friday
Jamal Murray

in Danger of Missing Friday's Game
Andrew Nembhard

Unavailable Friday
Bennedict Mathurin

Remains Out Friday
Lamar Jackson

Won't Have Any Limitations on Thursday Night
Karl-Anthony Towns

Probable to Face Bulls
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Listed as Questionable for Friday
Jarrett Allen

Diagnosed With Broken Finger
Donovan Mitchell

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Jaylen Brown

Off the Injury Report
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Out on Thursday
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Upgraded to Available
Ilya Mikheyev

a Game-Time Call Thursday
Samuel Ersson

Lands on Injured Reserve
Alexander Romanov

Returns to Action Thursday
Roope Hintz

Still Out Thursday
George Springer

"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
Matt Duchene

Remains Sidelined Thursday
Martin Necas

Inks Eight-Year Extension With Avalanche
Travis Hunter

Dealing With Knee Injury, Limited in Thursday's Practice
Mathew Barzal

Scratched on Thursday for Disciplinary Reasons
Nico Collins

Clears Concussion Protocol, Says he's "Ready to Play"
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Preparing to Start Kyler Murray in Week 9
Nico Collins

Expected to Clear the Concussion Protocol
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
CFB

Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Zach Werenski

Enjoys Second Consecutive Multi-Point Night
Charlie Coyle

Sets Up Four Goals Wednesday
John Tavares

Joins 500-Goal Club
Zach Hyman

Will Not Return This Week
Robert Thomas

Doubtful for Thursday
Brad Marchand

on Track to Return Saturday
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
Samuel Ersson

Questionable for Thursday
Jordan Greenway

Set for Season Debut Thursday
Conor Garland

Ruled Out for Thursday
Quinn Hughes

to Remain Out Thursday
Logan Cooley

Signs $80 Million Deal With Mammoth
Erik Gudbranson

Remains Out Wednesday
William Nylander

Won't Play on Wednesday
Lamar Jackson

Removed From Injury Report, Will Return on Thursday
Tyler Shough

to Start at QB the Rest of the Season
Terry McLaurin

Re-Injures Quad, Out for Week 9
Brock Bowers

Practicing in Full, "Looking Great"
Myles Garrett

"No Chance" Myles Garrett Gets Traded
Rico Dowdle

to Become Panthers Featured Back in Week 9?
Aidan Hutchinson

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Lions
Joe Flacco

Week 9 Status in Doubt With AC Joint Sprain
Cam Skattebo

Facing 4-6-Month Recovery Timetable
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
Jake Oettinger

Collects First Shutout of the Season
Chuba Hubbard

Panthers Don't Want To Move Chuba Hubbard
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
Malik Nabers

Should be Ready for Start of Next Season
Lamar Jackson

Says he's "Ready to Go Now"
Isiah Pacheco

Week-to-Week With MCL Sprain
Tyler Shough

Named Saints' Starting Quarterback
Kareem Hunt

Scores Twice in Monday Night Win Over Washington
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
CFB

Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
CFB

Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
CFB

Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Christopher Bell

Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season
Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects
Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Ends in No-Contest
Virna Jandiroba

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Mackenzie Dern

Wins Vacant Strawweight Title
Mario Bautista

Gets Outclassed
Umar Nurmagomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jailton Almeida

Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Split Decision At UFC 321
Azamat Murzakanov

Remains Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher A Playable DFS option for Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

is an Intriguing DFS Option For Martinsville
Daniel Suarez

May be Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville This week?
Christopher Bell

Kyle Larson Should Advance to Championship 4
Joey Logano

Don't Expect Joey Logano to Significantly Contend for Championship 4
William Byron

A DFS Must-Start Due to Lap-Leader Points
Ross Chastain

Hail Melon Nostalgia Masks Ross Chastain's Martinsville Mediocrity
Josh Berry

a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points
Brad Keselowski

an Intriguing Martinsville Option
Shane Van Gisbergen

Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power
Carson Hocevar

Lack of Finesse Makes Him a Risky Martinsville Pick

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K
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1B
2B
3B
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OF
SP
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