RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has entered the second season -- the playoffs! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, May 26th, 2021 at 6:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/26
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- Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders
- Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
The Pittsburgh-New York game starts at 6:30 pm EDT but is part of the main slate so that means even more options.
One of the key aspects of tonight is does one go with Ilya Sorokin or Spencer Knight? That looks like an easy choice but is it really?
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a three-game main slate, picking the right goalie should be a little bit easier. There is no more "load management". Also, goaltenders are a lot easier to figure out typically in the second season.
The matchup that naturally will be hammered on is likely well unlikely. What? The problem is every game has its traps. However, the best game on the surface for a goalie may just be Ilya Sorokin as the New York Islanders try to close out Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Islanders were 21-4-3 at home this season and play at Nassau Veterans Memorial Colosseum tonight.
The other question is does Marc-Andre Fleury rebound tonight? He gave up three first-period goals at home on Monday night. If one feels skittish, there, the "Battle Of Florida" is almost a coin flip between Andrei Vasilevskiy and Spencer Knight. Vasilevskiy has the home-ice advantage but Knight stopped 36 of 37 shots in Game 5.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "temptation" to try and game stack is a bit inevitable given the "Battle Of Florida". Does anyone expect a low-scoring game here? That answer seems to be increasingly unlikely.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these four games look to feature low goal totals. One could be wrong but aside from New York and Pittsburgh, it looks like there will be some goals.
Finally, this main slate is like a Round 1 playoff Wednesday normally should be. It just has a few wrinkles with that Vegas and Minnesota game showing some scoring might of late.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple once more but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll a bit earlier in the day barring game-time decisions, etc. Be advised analysis becomes a little more concise come the playoffs as we concentrate on social media more as well.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Sam Bennett, FLA ($5,500 DK / $5,100 FD) - Thankfully one can spend down a bit and still get some excellent production and metrics from yes, this Florida center. Spending up to Aleksander Barkov or Brayden Point is nice but Bennett is averaging 4.5 shots per game and four scoring chances per game in his time in Florida. The fact that he is pretty much a middle-tier salary is almost criminal given the slate. The shot bonus potential on DraftKings is also intriguing enough and Bennett can score on the power play. That Tampa Bay penalty kill has looked quite vulnerable at times even when Florida does not score on the power play.
- Anthony Cirelli, TAM ($3,200 DK / $4,800 FD) - Yes, Cirelli has priced this low on DraftKings. It is not a joke. Again, exploit value when the number of games get scarce. That is the best approach in playoff DFS no matter the sport. One's odds increase of meeting or exceeding good DFS point totals obviously. The idea is to try and piece together plays and stacks to succeed (sometimes cap be damned). Cirelli is also still playing top-six minutes as well.
This is a Wednesday night slate where there can be some solid variety. Again, look at a Jean-Gabriel Pageau or Ryan Hartman type of player tonight. These are value plays for middle-six guys who tend to produce like top-six players later in rounds. When the space gets tight, it is those who are not afraid to battle near the net who help DFS players profit the most. Expect the unexpected.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Nikita Kucherov, TAM ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD) - It is kind of nice to get a "stud" forward that actually produces. Kucherov was held off the scoreboard on Monday because of a few missed chances. However, do not expect that again in Game 6. Basically, it is roster Kucherov and then look around for pieces to surround the Tampa Bay winger. The key is to differentiate by using some pieces that may not always have a full correlation. Some. Not all. Keep that in mind. Looking at the Tampa Bay power play is one way or sneaking in a value defenseman like a McDonagh or Cernak.
- Mark Stone, VGK ($6,700 DK/ $7,600 FD) - Stone's DraftKings price is interesting enough to gamble on playing him then stacking a few smaller pieces like an Alec Martinez or Chandler Stephenson perhaps. If one is scared off a little by looking at Minnesota players, that is. Again, Stone has goals in three straight games and is definitely riding a solid wave of momentum. He generates at least three scoring chances a game without Max Pacioretty in the lineup.
Something else we should add is to stay away from players who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alex Pietrangelo, VGK ($6,100 DK / $6,500 FD) - So, the point here was to take a bit more risk on Wednesday. Most believe that Victor Hedman is a safer choice but not exactly. Pietrangelo has a higher floor potential against Minnesota oddly enough. His puck-moving abilities seem to match up better and Pietrangelo is 100%. Hedman still seems to be battling some nagging injury and that just makes us a little skittish. Hedman could hit but he could flop. Pietrangelo features less risk in a game Vegas feels like it has to have.
- MacKenzie Weegar, FLA ($5,000 DK / $4,400 FD) - The defenseman is hot right now in DFS with nine points in his last ten games and a goal and assist on Monday in Game 5 against Tampa Bay. His FanDuel salary alone is reason enough to roster him. The idea is to try to be a bit creative and Weegar allows one to spend up elsewhere. Weegar can also hit the blocked shots bonus on DraftKings. His floor is nice too with two shots and two blocked shots a game on the season. With Tampa expected to attempt even more shots tonight in a high-paced game, Weegar has increasing upside.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Hint: GO FOR IT! It is the playoffs. Game flow has a way of getting very strange at times. The key tonight will be to attempt to roster some plays around or below $4,000. Who is tonight's Scott Mayfield for example. It may just be Erik Cernak from Tampa Bay. Again, the idea is to wait a bit to see who may be shifted around pairings-wise. Could sneaking in a Nick Leddy or even Ryan Pulock work tonight?
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: Ilya Sorokin (NYI), Spencer Knight (FLA)
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Amazingly, Sorokin has gone from an afterthought to almost a must-start in just three games. The Islanders' goaltender has an astonishing .955 high-danger save percentage. That number has to come down, right? He has three wins in three starts and basically bailed out New York in Game 5 after allowing two early goals.
The biggest risk tonight is going for the saves. A win is a considerable bonus but there is a chance that Florida's rookie, Spencer Knight sees 35-40+ shots again. Florida and Tampa Bay expect to be a lights-out pace type of game. The hope is that Knight allows three goals or maybe less on a ton of shots.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TAM 1
- Kucherov/ Point / Palat or Killorn (even maybe Hedman and watch for Tampa line change).
- VGK 1
- Stone / Stephenson / Pietrangelo from D
- PIT 1
- Crosby/ Rust / Guentzel
Other Stacks to consider: CAR 2, NSH 1, STL 3, BOS 1, BOS 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
