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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has entered the second season -- the playoffs! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, May 19th, 2021 at 6:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/19
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- Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins
- Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes
- St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers
Please note that this is the biggest slate of Round 1 so far with four Wednesday night games. Also, the Boston-Washington game starts at 6:30 pm EDT but is part of the main slate so that means even more options.
One of the key aspects of tonight is Game 1 of Winnipeg and Edmonton. This introduces the prospect of playing Connor McDavid along with Nathan MacKinnon. That seems like a heck of a choice to make given what Colorado did in Game 1 (50 shots and four goals).
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a four-game main slate, picking the right goalie will be a little bit easier. There is no more "load management". Also, goaltenders are a lot easier to figure out typically in the second season.
The matchup that naturally will be hammered on is likely Philipp Grubauer goes up against the St. Louis Blues once again. Grubauer had a relatively easy Game 1 where he only faced 23 shots. Alex Nedeljkovic expects to be the second-highest owned goaltender (provided he starts again). He stopped 22 of 24 shots in the 5-2 Carolina Game 1 win. Does one try and risk going for Mike Smith or maybe Juuse Saros for shot volume? That's a good question. Some might even risk Jordan Binnington but the projections suggest Colorado will not hit 50 shots or even close.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "temptation" to try and game stack is a bit inevitable given the matchups in the late games. Just watch out for Winnipeg and Edmonton for some rust early as the teams have not played for four to five days. It will likely not take long for Connor McDavid to get going. The same can be said for Winnipeg and the status of Nik Ehlers. It looks less possible for him to return tonight. Maybe Game 2 features a better chance of seeing the talented forward.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these four games look to feature low goal totals. One could be wrong but aside from Boston and Washington, it looks like there will be some goals.
Finally, this main slate is like a Round 1 playoff Wednesday normally should be. It just has a few wrinkles with the late games and well Edmonton and Winnipeg starting their series.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple once more but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll a bit earlier in the day barring game-time decisions, etc. Be advised analysis becomes a little more concise come the playoffs as we concentrate on social media more as well.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($8,600 DK / $8,800 FD) - Thankfully there is only one player over $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel on Wednesday night. The best part is that it is McDavid. Now, here is the thing. No team ticks off Colorado quite like the St. Louis Blues. The difference is that Colorado just has more weapons offensively that are clicking right now. McKinnon scored twice in Game 1 and hit the DraftKings bonus in shots. In all, he had three points as the Blues had no answers for the top line. Game 2 may see the MacKinnon line generate almost the same amount of opportunities.
- Patrice Bergeron, SJS ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) - Yes, Bergeron enjoys a good matchup against a slower than usual team defense in the Washington Capitals. Remember, Craig Anderson is likely to start but has not been confirmed at press time. It matters a little as Ilya Samsonov would be quite rusty and yes both exploit worthy for different reasons. Bergeron scored and had six shots on goal in Game 2. That DraftKings price is rather attractive as well.
This is a Wednesday night slate where there can be some solid variety. Again, look at eligibilities as Sebastian Aho has to be considered from Carolina. Even Jordan Staal and Matt Duchene could be sneaky options once again. It is the time of year where the middle-six often rises up and surprises many. Tiers are a bit different in the playoffs and social media plays a vital role even with small line shifts.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Taylor Hall, BOS ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) - It is kind of nice to get a "stud" forward for a very good salary on Wednesday night. Hall scored a goal in Game 2 and had eight goals on 48 shots in his month with the Boston Bruins. The winger had 11 shot attempts, seven shots, and six scoring chances on Monday versus Washington. Hall literally was a one-man wrecking crew causing the Capitals' defense to buckle constantly in the last half of Boston's Game 2 win. Washington's main focus will be on the top line and rightfully so. Therefore, Hall should have free reign to attack the lesser lines and pairings from the Capitals.
- Andrei Svechnikov, CAR ($5,400 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Svechnikov presents as a great option on Wednesday even though he is mostly a middle-six option. Why? He gets all this power-play time for the best man-advantage unit in the entire league. Svechnikov scored an empty-net goal but had eight shots on 12 attempts and six scoring chances. Maybe Hall and the Russian drank the same coffee. Whatever happened, it is clear that Svechnikov's speed and power are too much for the Predators to handle right now.
The problem tonight may just be an abundance of choices. For a four-game slate, there does seem to be a lot of options from the upper-middle and even middle tiers.
Something else we should add is to stay away from players who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,300 DK / $5,800 FD) - So, the point here was to take a bit more risk on Wednesday. Most would consider Dougie Hamilton but his price is just a bit too high (not really the top guy on the slate). One wants risk but potentially higher value. Nurse playing with McDavid a lot tends to raise the possibilities. Nurse had three points in the last two meetings against Winnipeg with six shots and six blocked shots. There are experimental options from the value bin but for top choices, do not mess around too much.
- Cale Makar, COL ($6,200 DK / $5,900 FD) - The defenseman is hot right now in DFS with four goals and ten points in his last ten games. Makar scored in Game 1 and had three shots along with three scoring chances. One can look at Devon Toews to save a bit of salary but St. Louis just could not slow down Makar. It is likely that will not change much on Wednesday. The fact that Makar is a little bit cheaper than last Wednesday does not hurt.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Hint: GO FOR IT! It is the playoffs. Game flow has a way of getting very strange at times. Matt Grzelcyk, Ryan Ellis, and even Dmitry Orlov will be choices in the $4,000's that will allow one to save some dollars. Hopefully, Orlov gets away from John Carlson. It seems Carlson has become quite the liability defensively.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS and yes they typically come earlier.
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch as Grubauer starts for Colorado tonight. He will be likely deemed as the safest goalie to play. After that, Mike Smith and Alex Nedeljkovic are up there when it comes to must-start plays.
The biggest problem tonight does one roster of one of the high-volume goaltenders. Jordan Binnington may not see 49 shots tonight but should see 30+. The same goes for Connor Hellebuyck. Finally, Juuse Saros is the most likely to face almost 40 shots again.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- EDM 1
- McDavid/ Puljujarvi / Nurse (do watch a line shift here).
- COL 1
- MacKinnon/ Rantanen / Landeskog /Toews/Girard from the D?
- CAR PP 1
- Aho / Svechnikov / Hamilton
Other Stacks to consider: CAR 2, NSH 1, STL 3, BOS 1, BOS 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
