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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Wednesday, February 17th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/17
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- Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red Wings
- Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With the short four-game slate, picking the right goalie is essential. Out of the eight goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch the three North Division clashes? It's a great question. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red Wings. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Detroit goaltenders are exceedingly cheap at just below $7,000 on FanDuel. Kevin Lankinen is only $7,500 as well. That is something to keep in mind. Even in DraftKings pricing, the Detroit goaltenders are only $7,300. Does one spend up or does one save a little salary?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs top tonight's slate and then there is the Ottawa Senators. After that, it gets a little crazy. Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat are Chicago's most versatile duo (Chicago's power play is one of the best). Back to Toronto...
It will be the top power-play units that draw the focus but Toronto's second unit may be something to look at also. John Tavares and William Nylander are flanked by Jason Spezza, T.J. Brodie, and Ilya Mikheyev. That gives one cheaper options to look at. Now, watch for the lack of correlation aside from Nylander and Tavares. Ottawa came back from down 5-1 to defeat Toronto 6-5 in overtime on Monday night. Evgeni Dadonov was a big part of that scoring twice. Dadonov shares will still be low so take a shot here anyway.
The later North Division games feature Connor McDavid, Mark Scheifele, and Johnny Gaudreau among others. Tonight's slate will be kept simple. Expect Vancouver and Calgary to feature a lot of scoring chances. These are two of the more porous defenses in the league. It is up to the goaltending.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews, TOR ($8,900 DK / $8,800 FD) - Matthews is our top pick because of the goal potential. He keeps scoring goals and as long as he does that, Matthews is valuable anytime. He generates scoring chances and shots at an Alex Ovechkin like level and that expects to continue tonight. It is hard to stray too far away from players on Toronto's top line. He had two goals, an assist, and at least five scoring chances versus Ottawa. It is hard to go with anyone else given that Matthews has 11 goals and 15 points in his last ten games on 38 shots! Connor McDavid will be too obvious of a play but going up against Connor Hellebuyck is a bit riskier.
- Mark Scheifele, WPG ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD) - Scheifele figures into the scoring at a slightly lower-priced tier on Wednesday. Again, Edmonton is likely to give up goals but how many is the question. Edmonton had no defensive pairing which could truly slow the Winnipeg top line. There is an attack and be attacked type of look to this game and the Vancouver-Calgary game as well.
- Vladimir Namestnikov, DET ($3,700 DK/ $3,600 FD) - Namestnikov lists as a center only in DraftKings and a winger on FanDuel. There are not as many value plays that span both sites but Pius Suter is still in the low 4,000's on FanDuel for now. Even Adam Lowry may be worth the risk as a middle-six center on this slate. However, Namestnikov offers the most potential but also the most room to bust.
This is again a shorter slate, so the idea is to keep this simple. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at a player like Jason Spezza (wing on DraftKings) as well because of his power-play value and price. Short slates give the player the ability to change things up and be a bit different. This may not work out but could pay off handsomely. Call it a risk-reward of the highest kind.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Alex DeBrincat, CHI ($7,500 DK / $6,900 FD) - It is too hard to not place DeBrincat somewhere in one's lineup especially if multiple or MME (mass multi-entry) is your specialty. Chicago's power-play unit is one of the best in the league and Detroit's penalty kill is one of the worst. DeBrincat tanked on Monday night throwing up a rare bagel on the board. This gets people exposure to Patrick Kane typically and delivers savings as well. Second-tiered players like Dominik Kubalik are going to be worth a look because of their savings (in the 4000's) and versatility.
- Evgenii Dadonov, NYR ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD) - Some funky DraftKings pricing leads us to Dadonov once more. It was the same for us on Monday night as the price discrepancy was too much to pass up. Getting Dadonov for what amounts to be a punt play is crazy. On shorter slates, hunting for value on the two main DFS sites is much easier than it appears.
- Zach Hyman, TOR ($5,700 DK / $5,100 FD) - Hyman fires shots on the net at just about three per contest. His points are lower but against teams like Ottawa, Hyman may be more of an asset offensively than usual. He hit the shot bonus against Ottawa on Monday and still played over 16 minutes. Again, this is a way to be a bit different while still getting exposure to the best Toronto has to offer.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Look at how much Blake Wheeler has dropped on DraftKings ($5,200) for example. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Tyson Barrie, EDM ($5,800 DK / $5,700 FD) - Barrie should be the highest-priced defenseman on this slate, and for good reason. His price raise finally happened as many had been wondering when it would. His floor has been excellent in this latest stretch and the chances created are high and garners enough ice time to at least sustain production within reason. He finds a way to get shot attempts on the net and Winnipeg's penalty kill has been awful. What is Barrie's specialty? The power play. Furthermore, he is on a man advantage with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Enough said.
- Thomas Chabot, OTT ($5,700 DK / $4,900 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Chabot on the power play for better or for worse is solid tonight versus Toronto and even at 5 on 5. Why? One never knows with the Battle Of Ontario. The only certainty is that Chabot will get several opportunities to hit value as Toronto will give up their share of medium and high-danger scoring chances.
Look to Filip Hronek from Detroit against an iffy Chicago team defensively. Also, Quinn Hughes is just below the top guys listed but his production has been more consistent the past several contests. Sneaking in Evan Bouchard might be worth it from Edmonton as well. His price is at a value tier and he does have an above average shot. Expect a few more picks as we get some line matchups later in the day.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Jacob Markstrom, CGY ($8,100 DK / $8,000 FD) - With the higher volume expected, Markstrom again goes up against his old team. He is the projected starter and has faced 113 shots in the first three games of the mini-series versus Vancouver while allowing only six goals. That volume may mean a bonus on DraftKings for saving 35+ shots. That almost negates needing a win at that juncture. Keep this in mind on Wednesday with the shorter slate.
Other goalies to consider: Hellebuyck, Lankinen
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different ineups in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TOR 1
- Matthews/ Hyman or Thornton/ Marner (Reilly, D-men add on)
- WPG 1
- Scheifele/ Connor/ Wheeler (Morrison, D-men add on)
- OTT PP 1
- Dadonov/ Tkachuk/ Stulzie (Chabot, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: EDM 1, EDM 2, TOR 2, TOR PP 1, WPG 2, OTT 2, VAN 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
