RADIO
Chris Wassel delivers his top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for April 28th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and there are just a few weeks left in the regular season! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, April 28th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/28
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- St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Edmonton Oilers vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Colorado Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Anaheim Ducks vs. Los Angeles Kings
- Arizona Coyotes vs. San Jose Sharks
Please note that the St. Louis-Minnesota game starts at 7:00 pm EDT and Edmonton-Winnipeg begins at 9:00 pm EDT.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a six-game main slate, picking the right goalie will be a challenge especially considering Winnipeg looked none too happy after being outclassed at home again on Monday. Which goalie rises up in the Toronto-Montreal clash? Could the highest-owned goals be Cal Petersen if he starts for Los Angeles? There are lots of questions.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Can St. Louis show some consistency after two straight wins versus Colorado?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "temptation" to try and game stack Toronto-Montreal is there for this six-game slate. Given how Toronto and Montreal have been defensively of late, it is something to look at.
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, but also that clash in Vegas will spread some ownership around.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these six games seem to appeal that way.
Finally, this main slate is like a condensed playoff slate with those two games at the end added for a bit of diversity.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $9,300 FD) - The fact that there are three players on DraftKings at or over $9,000 is crazy but that is Wednesday night where studs feel like they are everywhere. It is hard to pick against McDavid here against a Winnipeg team that has shown little or no ability to slow him down in any way. Aside from the obvious hat trick on seven shots Monday, McDavid had seven scoring chances and five of those were high-danger opportunities. Winnipeg is just not the same at home this year and approaching .500 there which is not a good omen even for Wednesday night.
- Chandler Stephenson, VGK ($4,700 DK / $4,500 FD) - Yes, we do not care that it is Colorado on Wednesday but Stephenson again presents as a very good option while many go with studs like Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews. There is always a risk of going down the ladder a bit but this is kind of a medium slate with considerable star power. Also, the center adds something that most top-six centers do not feature. That is the ability to block shots. He will get 2-3 blocks on occasion along with 2-3 shots per game. He is seeing 20+ minutes with more frequency and time during all situations. With that comes more opportunities.
This is a challenging Wednesday night slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable (see the West Coast games) but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Anaheim and Los Angeles. Looking to the Vegas power play is not that crazy of an idea either. Furthermore, can San Jose rise up like they did on Monday night, it makes Tomas Hertl look even more enticing?
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Kirill Kaprizov, MIN ($6,900 DK / $6,600 FD) - Kaprizov has more value than usual because of the focus on three of the bigger matchups of the night (EDM-WPG, TOR-MTL, and COL-VGK). Some may even forget the first game of the night is from Minnesota where the Wild are challenging for the West Division crown. For those wondering, Kaprizov is solidifying his Calder Trophy with five straight games scoring a goal. He has three or more shots in every one of those games and St. Louis comes in with a bottom-third penalty kill. Though the Blues' road record is better, their defense could still be missing Colton Parayko and Vince Dunn. That is not so good. Kaprizov keeps one away from spending too high for a Leon Draisaitl or even Max Pacioretty. Tyler Toffoli is even worth a look on Wednesday against a Toronto team that gets in trouble defensively far too often.
- Timo Meier, SJS ($5,200 DK/ $4,400 FD) - Meier looked better on Monday again and was rewarded with top-line ice time. He has points in three straight games and is playing his best hockey of the season. Maybe it is too late for this year, but for tonight, this has good ramifications for DFS. His value is more on FanDuel than DraftKings. However, his salary is still cheap enough on DraftKings to deliver some good production. Arizona has run out of gas over its last 12 games allowing 3+ goals with alarming regularity.
The problem tonight may just be getting those "lesser" matchups right. That may be the wrong wording but honestly, those may be where the profits are. Also, watch for Kyle Connor tonight. Again, Edmonton may give up some goals. At some point, the anger in Winnipeg has to rise up enough to bubble over for one night. Right? Hopefully?
Something else we should add is to stay away from players who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Sean Walker, VGK ($3,700 DK / $3,700 FD) - So, the point here was to save a little money. It could be okay to go with Shea Theodore but the blocked shots bonus potential and floor of Walker could be there. He is priced in the value tier again and has two-plus performances in his previous three games. It can be okay to stay away from trying two stud defensemen -- especially tonight. One could even try two value plays with the options out there. Walker, again, is playing an awful Anaheim team that bleeds unblocked shots from the point. Arguably, Anaheim may be the worst team in the NHL right now. Walker may be a cheap way to take advantage of that from the blueline like we did on Monday night.
- Jakob Chychrun, ARZ ($6,400 DK / $5,400 FD) - The man is hot right now in DFS because the forward options in Arizona have dried up like the desert. He has nine shots and blocked shots in each of his last two games. On DraftKings, he hit the double bonus twice in a row. That is rare to do. San Jose is a great matchup for Chychrun and even with his price rising, it is a shot worth taking. Plus, he has goals in consecutive games with several scoring chances of the medium and high-danger variety. One can always step down to Alex Goligoski if one spent a bit too much on forwards.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Erik Karlsson and Jonas Brodin carry some intrigue from the value tier again. Minnesota's defensemen are under-priced on this slate somewhat. San Jose's defensemen are underpriced as well while Montreal, Edmonton, and Toronto defensemen are a bit high-priced.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Vegas tonight whether it be Fleury or Lehner. Also, does one dare start the San Jose goalie? The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 7:00 pm EDT lock. Could Cam Talbot be one to look at with a home tilt versus a desperate St. Louis team? He should see a good volume of shots.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- EDM 1
- McDavid/ Puljujarvi/ Bear/Nurse from the D (do watch a line shift here).
- VGK 1
- Pacioretty/ Stephenson / Stone/ Martinez from the D?
- MIN PP 1
- Kaprizov / Bonino / Fiala (Spurgeon, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: SJS 1, TOR 2, ARZ 2, MTL 2, WPG 1, VGK 3 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially in Edmonton and Vegas).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
