NHL DFS for FanDuel, DraftKings (9/13): Value Plays, Goalies, Power Plays, Core 4, Stacks

5 years ago by Chris Wassel

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey this time of year is a different experience with the showdown slates. The goal is to keep things simple during this time of year. Keep it simple stupid applies here.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Nikita Kucherov who can be a volume shooter tends to be a better play just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Sunday, September 13th, 2020 at 3:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/13

New York Islanders (+125) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-145)

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis

Team	Goalie GAA	Goalie SS	Goalie RBS	Goalie GSAA	Goalie QS%
Semyon Varlamov	2.26 -- 5th	25.83	2	-1.13	62.5
Andrei Vasilevskiy	1.98 -- 3rd	31.56	0	6.42	56.3

The numbers I use will be a bit different than Jorge's but the goal is the same. Goalies are ranked based on a minimum of eight starts (more than one round basically).This is to keep you informed of overall statistics from an individual goaltending standpoint. New York still uses Semyon Varlamov far more than Thomas Greiss so we will use Varlamov's numbers as seen above. Goalie SS is simply goalie shots seen. Goalie RBS is what we call a really bad start where a goaltender has a save percentage of .850 or less. Goalie GSAA is goals saved above average and the quality start percentage is where a goaltender posts above the league average in save percentage.

Now, Game 3 showed Vasilevskiy to be a bit more vulnerable. New York effectively used counter plays along with the low to high play with much success. That was led mainly by the second line. Semyon Varlamov made enough timely saves with 34 on 37 shots. New York rallied in support of Varlamov after the Tampa Bay Lightning overcame a two goal deficit. Varlamov also helped himself with several key saves which was something Vasilevskiy could not accomplish. Even without two of their key forwards, Tampa Bay was able to dominate chances as the game went on.

Power Play Analysis

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
New York Islanders	15.7% -- 15	83.1% -- 5
Tampa Bay Lightning	22.2% -- 8	78.2% -- 15

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!

Tampa Bay enjoys an advantage here and went 1 for 1 on the power play while making the Islanders' power play almost punchless. Now, with Alex Killorn returning, that only helps Tampa Bay even more. If Brayden Point were able to somehow play in Game 4 then that would tip the scales even more. New York has its work cut out for them when it comes to containing the Lightning.

NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown

Captain Picks

Victor Hedman ($14,100 DK/ $11,000 FD) - Hedman had a clunker of a performance which dropped his price a good deal on FanDuel ($2,000). That alone may be a reason to get back aboard the Hedman train before it leaves the station. Hedman has points in six of his last eight games plus enjoys good shot and block potential. Do not let the one block and one shot from Game 3 influence one's decision too much.
Nikita Kucherov ($16,200 DK/ $15,500 FD) - Kucherov is the most expensive player on the slate but also carries the highest ceiling of all skaters in this game. He is coming off a four shots, four scoring chance, and one assist performance in Game 3. That is below Kucherov's normal level of production these playoffs. Typically, the Russian right winger bounces back in a big way. He is extremely dangerous on the power play and has been able to easily create space no matter which defensive pairing goes up against the forward. It is difficult to keep an all-world talent down for two games in a row.
Brock Nelson ($13,200 DK/ $13,500 FD) - If you want to be different in tournaments, Brock Nelson is worth a look. The Islanders second line is the one to look at. Arguably, the first one has been relegated already. Nelson just keeps scoring and anchors the second line which had six points (two goals). Tampa Bay has not figured how to fully contain this second line that is flanked by Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey. Nelson's influence on the power play is also essential. There is some talk that New York may consider using full correlation when it comes to the man advantage. Either way, Nelson is the goal scorer of the trio and the one most likely to get 3+ shots on net.

Value Picks

Ondrej Palat ($8,200 DK/ $11,500 FD) - Palat has been skating with the top Lightning line all postseason long and has filled in nicely for Steven Stamkos. Palat is cheaper than his other linemates but allows you to get exposure to the top line and the top powerplay line as well. He has scored double-digit DK points in six of seven games. If needing salary relief, Palat can be viable in tournaments for the captain role due to his recent form and salary savings that he provides. With the uncertainty of Brayden Point's status, Palat may be even more of a focal point on offense. Point may be a game-time decision again for Game 4.
Ryan McDonagh ($4,600 DK/ $7,000 FD) - McDonagh has been playing occasionally alongside Victor Hedman. The veteran defender has scored five points over his last three games played and has notched points against the Islanders in two of the first three contests. He had an ugly Game 3 which will definitely drop his ownership percentage. It certainly dropped his FanDuel price which makes picking him somewhat easier.
Matt Martin ($2,000 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Martin is minimum or near minimum price in all formats and has double-digit points in three of his last five games. It is at least worth a flier on the showdown slate as it is basically like a free square allowing one to spend up everywhere else. With the fourth line having such an active presence against Tampa Bay, it is viable to take a flier on Martin.