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Brenton takes a look at the top NHL 2023 future bets for teams to either make or miss the playoffs. He gives his top five make or miss predictions for the 2023-24 NHL season.
NHL hockey returns in 24 hours! The regular season kicks off with a trio of games on Tuesday evening, of which features a young phenom in Connor Bedard taking on a former young phenom and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh.
Before we get that far, however, we have more NHL futures to get into. More specifically, we're looking into April to see which clubs should end up in the postseason or miss the dance altogether. We're going to get even more specific and highlight the top five value bets to either make or miss the playoffs in the 2023-24 campaign.
Let's dive in and see where the smart money lies!
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St. Louis Blues
It was a tough go for the St. Louis Blues in the 2022-23 campaign.
The Blues finished sixth in the Central Division and 23rd in the NHL with just 81 points last season while their -38 goal differential also checked in at 23rd league-wide. However, they are a dark horse to return to contention this season.
Nothing about this team screams 'elite' but rather looks solid up and down the roster. They added Kevin Hayes to give them a quality combination down the middle alongside Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn. Jordan Kyrou could cross the 40-goal plateau after breaking out with 37 tallies last season.
A top four of Torey Krug, Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy isn't the worst group in the league. Faulk actually enjoyed a career year last season while a healthy Krug is a big boon to a talented top power play unit.
The question remains between the pipes. Jordan Binnington has underperformed in each of the last two seasons but 23-year-old Joel Hofer posted a healthy 2.50 goals-against average and .921 save percentage across 47 games with the American Hockey League's Springfield Thunderbirds last season. He could very well push Binnington for a timeshare in the crease.
Add in a weak Central Division and the Blues could hop back into the mix this season, and at fantastic value.
Pick: Make the playoffs (+200)
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins made a major splash by acquiring rear guard Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks this summer, seemingly giving them a significant boost after missing the postseason for the first time since the 2005-06 season last year. Unfortunately, competition will be fierce not only in the Metropolitan Division but also in the Eastern Conference as a whole.
New general manager Kyle Dubas is running with a continually aging core featuring Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Karlsson, and Kris Letang. He also has an over-the-hill Jeff Carter on the roster while their top goal-scorer Jake Guentzel is coming off Aug. 2 ankle surgery and may miss the first few games of the regular season.
Can this core stay healthy? Malkin and Letang have dealt with numerous ailments over the last few seasons while Crosby and Karlsson have injury histories themselves. Can Tristan Jarry bounce back? He posted a career-worst 2.90 GAA last season while also posting a mediocre .909 Sv% in 47 games.
Even if all goes to plan, are the Penguins better than the likes of the Hurricanes, Devils, and Rangers in the Metro? Not likely. As a result, they'll be in a dogfight for a Wild Card spot alongside some young, emerging teams in the Atlantic such as the Senators, Sabres, and Red Wings. That's not to mention the Maple Leafs, Bruins, Lightning, Panthers, Islanders, and Capitals all as potential playoff contenders in the east.
There's too much grey area here with a club that took a significant step back last season.
Pick: Miss the playoffs (+165)
Seattle Kraken
The Kraken were perhaps the league's biggest surprise last season as they earned a postseason berth with a 100-point campaign following a last-place finish in the Pacific Division with a 60-point inaugural season in 2021-22.
On the positive side, the Western Conference appears notably weaker than the East. The Avalanche, Stars, Wild, Oilers, Golden Knights, and Kings sure look like the six clubs to finish within the top three of their respective divisions. It should be interesting to see who can step up and snatch a Wild Card berth, which is why the Blues are a nice look at those odds.
Even though their offense looks relatively weak on paper, they finished fifth in overall offense last season. However, they also ranked second with an 11.6% shooting rate. Generally, the better teams ranked higher in shooting rate but the Kraken clearly benefitted from positive puck luck last season.
They also have goaltending concerns after finishing 30th with a .886 Sv% last season. No. 1 netminder Philipp Grubauer posted a 2.85 GAA and .895 Sv% in 39 games while ranking 56th of 75 qualified goaltenders with a -8.95 goals saved above average, as per Hockey Reference. Seattle also struggled on special teams, ranking 21st on both the power play and penalty kill.
Even with a pair of Wild Card spots seemingly up for grabs, the value here is on the Kraken to miss the playoffs.
Pick: Miss the playoffs (+100)
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Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets better get off to a fast start or things could go south in a hurry.
Plenty of eyes were on the Jets this offseason with plenty of decisions looming for the front office. All-world goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and No. 1 center Mark Scheifele are both scheduled to hit free agency at season's end and had trade rumors swirling over their heads for most of the summer. If the team isn't a sure-fire contender after Christmas, trades are likely as the club can absolutely not afford to lose them for nothing on the open market.
The club also dealt center Pierre-Luc Dubois to the L.A. Kings in June, leaving them without a 27-goal, 63-point player in 18:27 of average ice time per game. Youngster Cole Perfetti is being counted as the club's new No. 2 pivot after he scored eight goals and 30 points in 51 games last season.
Talent does remain up front and the blueline is solid. For the first time in a long time, the back end held up its end of the bargain in several advanced metrics, finishing 11th in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time. With Hellebuyck behind a strong defense, the Jets could also be in good shape defensively.
Like with Seattle, the Jets probably aren't good enough for a top-three spot in their division, sitting behind the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild in the Central. As a result, they are one of many teams that are likely competing for one of two Wild Card spots but there's also a long list of competitors in that space.
Also like the Kraken, the value is on Winnipeg to miss the dance while perhaps entering a new era at the trade deadline.
Pick: Miss the playoffs (+115)
Ottawa Senators
There's more hype around the Ottawa Senators this season than we've seen in quite some time, and for good reason.
The young Sens have an excellent top line of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Claude Giroux. They acquired blueliner Jacob Chychrun from the Arizona Coyotes last season and he and Thomas Chabot look like an excellent top pair on the back end. The question is going to be depth and goaltending.
Josh Norris' shoulder issues continued in training camp and he won't be ready to start the season. That leaves 21-year-old rookie Ridly Greig as the club's No. 1 center after tallying two goals and nine points in 20 games last season with the Sens.
Is a bottom pair of Erik Brannstrom and Travis Hamonic enough? What about in goal with Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg? Korpisalo bounced back last season but struggled mightily in his final two full seasons with the Blue Jackets before being dealt to the Kings last season.
There isn't much to like about the bottom six up front and Mathieu Joseph is penciled in as the second-line left winger after scoring three goals in 56 games last season.
There's a lot to like about an up-and-coming Ottawa Senators club. However, as noted, the Atlantic Division appears to be a gauntlet loaded with veteran powerhouses such as the Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Lightning while the Sabres and Red Wings join the Sens as up-and-coming youthful squads.
We still might be a year away from Ottawa making their move.
Pick: Miss the playoffs (+100)
