👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets and Avoids

Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 9 of the NFL season and 2019 fantasy football survivor leagues.

Week 8 was one for the favorites, as only two underdogs won outright, the Chargers and the Eagles. This means that only a scant number of entrants were knocked out of survivor pools. And of course, you had those fools who forgot to submit an entry and were eliminated. How can someone still be alive this far in, but forget to submit their pick?!

As I said last week, it's getting much more difficult to make these decisions, and this week is one of the hardest all season. There are only three teams favored by seven or more; Bills -10 vs. Redskins, 49ers -9.5 @ Cardinals, and Cowboys -7 @ Giants. Odds are you've already used all those teams to get to this point. But there is one other play this week, as well as one of the best gambling trends that does not arise all that often.

If you are reading this article on Thursday or later, the lines below are correct as of Wednesday. The teams I like against the spread will be italicized, with my three best bets against the spread able to be found on the bottom of the column. Teams on bye this week are the Bengals, Falcons, Rams, and Saints.

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 9

Bills -10 vs. Redskins

You've probably used Buffalo two weeks ago against Miami -- but in case you haven't, fire them up here because luckily for them:

Washington does not have an above-average offense but rather are the 28th-ranked team in terms of yards per play. However, the Bills are also offensively challenged, and only average 19.1 points per game while the Skins average 14 points on the road. That is why I like Washington with the points.

Bills 20 - Redskins 13

 

49ers -9.5 @ Cardinals

It's tough to not have the Niners as one of the top plays. San Fran is vastly better than Arizona, but this is a divisional game on Thursday Night Football so crazy things can happen. Arizona is off a pretty big loss against Saints while the Niners are undefeated. This game will come down to red-zone scoring. The Cards are dead last in scoring touchdowns in the red zone while San Fran has the second-best red-zone defense. They also have the best defense in terms of yards per play as well as one of the best pass-rush groups in the league. That will be enough to get them the win.

49ers 23 - Cardinals 19

 

Cowboys -7 @ Giants

This game fits in to one of the greatest gambling trends of all time; road favorite off a bye are 62-25 against the spread (71 percent) since 2002. RJ Bell was on the Against All Odds podcast with Cousin Sal several years ago and explained this trend at the 47:35 mark.

"The team that's traveling is clearly better. Because you can't be favored on the road unless you're clearly better. But because you're clearly better, you have the distractions on the road. You might be looking ahead. You might be a little beat up from last week. Whatever it is, it's going to cause you not to play your best game; you're more susceptible to a team you think you should easily beat, even more susceptible on the road. That's why road favorites are so dangerous. Well, when you have a bye, all that stuff goes out the window. If you haven't played for two weeks, you're not going to look ahead. You're going to be focused on that team. You're not going to be tired. All the things that make traveling tough, you have that total focus."

Dallas is also number one in yards per play, first in third-down conversion percentage, and ninth in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Their defense is also second in getting off the field on third-downs. The Cowboys beat up on bad teams and struggle against good ones and the Giants are a bad one.

Cowboys 31 - Giants 13

 

Jets -3 @ Dolphins

You may think I'm crazy for putting the Jets in this section, but Miami is on a short week, and well it is Miami. The Jets really are not that horrible of a team. Their head coach, Adam Gase, used to coach the Dolphins so you would expect he knows that team inside-out.

Miami's defense ranks in the bottom-five of the stats I use to make these decisions. They can't protect their quarterback allowing the most quarterback hits allowed this season. Keep fading those Fins!

Jets 23 - Dolphins 13

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Seahawks -6.5 vs. Bucs

I'm still alive in a loser pool and I'm highly considering taking the Bucs but this game terrifies me. For one, it's in the teaser zone. Every amateur gambler will have the Seahawks in a teaser. Vegas wants you to put Seattle in a 6.5-point teaser which tells me they may just very well win outright.

So let's delve into the stats. I always look at yards per play, touchdown percentage in the red zone, and third-down conversions. Those are the three-plus a small glance at sacks and turnovers. Seattle is a shocking 30th in opponent yards per play and they don't get to the quarterback much either as they have fifth-fewest sacks. Jameis Winston, who is a turnover machine, should have ample time to survey the field to find the open receiver.

Seattle will have a major advantage in the red zone, they rank second to Tampa's 25th-ranked red zone defense. Everywhere else they're pretty even. We must factor in Seattle's home field, but I feel like Winston loves playing in front of a raucous crowd. I keep thinking of Week 11, 2016 when the Bucs defeated the Chiefs in Arrowhead behind Winston's 335 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) and an interception-free game to win.

Another factor I like here is Bruce Arians. He beat the Seahawks several times in Seattle when he was the coach of the Cardinals as hefty underdogs. I originally had this game in top survivor play sections, and now I've talked myself out of picking the Bucs in my loser pool. This line should be around Seahawks by four.

Bucs 34 - Seahawks 30

 

Eagles -5 vs. Bears

I have no faith in either team. Mitchell Trubisky is just a bad quarterback and their head coach Matt Nagy is afraid to open it up and risk losing it because of that. On the other side, you have a good quarterback in Carson Wentz and a head coach who goes for it on fourth down and takes chances all the time. But the great equalizer in this one is the Bears pass rush. When Wentz is pressured, he gets happy feet and makes mistakes. The Bears Defense will have to win this game for them and even though I think they keep this low-scoring, I expect the Eagles to just eke it out.

Eagles 20 - Bears 17

 

Steelers -1 vs. Colts

So the Colts are 5-2, have played really solid football and are a one-point underdog in Pittsburgh? Vegas is trying to tell you something here because this line doesn't make sense.

The Colts offense is average but they protect the ball well, only turning it over seven times, fifth-fewest in the league. However, they aren't explosive. They are tied for 27th in passing plays of 20+ yards and have only one play of 40+ yards. The Steelers Defense is also continuing to improve. They're allowing 5.1 yards per play on the season, but over the last three, that number has dipped to 4.5. The defensive line constantly pressures the quarterback without blitzing, as they are ranked joint sixth in sacks. They also have the second-most takeaways, which is a major plus.

Pittsburgh's defense will win this game.

Steelers 24 - Colts 17

 

The Rest

Jaguars +2 vs. Texans (London) - It's so hard to bet a London game and this is one I want zero part in. There is one bet I'd considering playing; first quarter under. There have been a combined 13 total points in the first quarter of the three London games this year.

Vikings +2.5 @ Chiefs - This game depends on if Patrick Mahomes will be playing or not. With or without Mahomes though, the Vikings have the formula to beat KC and give the Chiefs their fourth straight loss at home. They can run the ball effectively with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison providing the work in their third-ranked rushing attack.

Panthers -3.5 vs. Titans - What do you make of the Titans? They are so up and down and are average at best. The difference in this one is the Panthers pass rush. They have the second most sacks while the Titans offensive line has allowed the most sacks and fourth-most quarterback hits.

Raiders -2 vs. Lions - Oakland is a lot better than their record is. They've played really well in their last three games and now they finally return home for their first home game since Sept. 15. Detroit should have won by 30 last week but let the Giants hang around and hang around. I'll take Oakland.

Broncos +3 vs. Browns - Joe Flacco will not be playing due to injury. Brandon Allen will be starting and I expect them to open up the offense a little after Flacco called out the offensive play-calling.

Packers -3.5 @ Chargers - This is going to be played in Los Angeles, but it's really a Packers home game with all the Green Bay fans that will be there. Yet, the line is only three. So essentially, you're getting Green Bay as a standard three-point favorite in a "home" game. Sign me up.

Patriots -3.5 @ Ravens - This is a pros vs. joe's game. This line opened at 6.5 and despite 69 percent of the bets being on the Patriots, the line has dropped three points. Even so, I'll be a joe in this one and take New England. Bill Belichick owns quarterbacks under the age of 25 (Lamar Jackson is 22). I think he dares Jackson to beat them with his arm and stuffs the box. The Ravens are also 29th in opponent yards per play so New England should have no problem moving the ball.

 

Best Bets for Week 9

  • Cowboys -7
  • Steelers -1
  • Panthers -3.5

Last week: 1-2

Season total: 12-12

More Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pittsburgh Steelers

Navy's Eli Heidenreich to the Steelers at No. 230 Overall
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Double Dip at Wide Receiver with C.J. Williams at Pick No. 203
Josh Manson

Not Expected to Play Sunday
Los Angeles Rams

Rams Select CJ Daniels with 197th Pick
Mason Lohrei

Set to Miss Game 4 as Healthy Scratch
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Select Jack Endries at No. 221 Overall
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Select Malik Benson with 195th Pick
Emil Andrae

Won't Play Saturday
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Select Anthony Smith in the Seventh Round
Washington Commanders

Commanders Add Running Back Competition with Kaytron Allen at Pick No. 187
Arturs Silovs

Starting Game 4 Against Flyers
Dan Vladar

Cleared for Game 4
George Kittle

Recovering Well, Could be Ready for Week 1
Mats Zuccarello

Remains Out Saturday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers Select Bauer Sharp with Pick No. 185
Nikolaj Ehlers

Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Cleveland Browns

Browns Continue Drafting Quarterbacks with Taylen Green at No. 182
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Select Emmanuel Henderson Jr. With 199th Overall Pick
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Select Seydou Traore with Pick No. 180
Minnesota Vikings

Vikings Trade Up to Select Demond Claiborne
Dillon Gabriel

Browns Don't Plan to Trade Dillon Gabriel
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Add to Quarterback Room with Cole Payton at No. 178
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Draft Baylor Receiver Josh Cameron in the Sixth Round
New Orleans Saints

Saints Stay Local, Select LSU's Barion Brown
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Select Kevin Coleman Jr. with 177th Pick
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Select Cyrus Allen With 176th Pick
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Select Adam Randall With 174th Pick
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Select Josh Cuevas With 173rd Pick
Steven Kwan

Scratched With Neck Stiffness
Trey Yesavage

Returning From Injured List on Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
Kirby Dach

Battles and Scores Two Points in Friday Triumph
Connor McDavid

Delivers Mixed-Bag Performance Friday
MLB

Saturday's Mets-Rockies Game Postponed Due to Weather
Karel Vejmelka

Saves Utah With Huge Effort Friday
Lane Hutson

Scores Crucial Overtime Goal in Montreal Win
Lawson Crouse

Cashes in With Two Goals for Utah
Mikael Granlund

Serves Up Trio of Assists in Anaheim Big Win
Giancarlo Stanton

Exits With Leg Tightness on Friday
Isaiah Joe

Likely to Miss Game 3 Against Suns
Peyton Watson

to Remain Sidelined Saturday
Aaron Gordon

Questionable for Saturday's Game 4
Jordan Goodwin

on Track to Return Saturday
Grayson Allen

Listed as Questionable for Saturday
Mark Williams

Won't Play Saturday
Victor Wembanyama

Will Miss Game 3 Against Trail Blazers
Tari Eason

Reed Sheppard Move into Starting Five on Friday
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Wins Most Improved Player Award
Immanuel Quickley

to Miss Rest of First-Round Series
Kevin Durant

is Ruled Out for Game 3 on Friday
Joel Embiid

Officially Ruled Out for Game 3
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Scratched on Friday With Mid-Back Pain
Troy Terry

Available for Game 3 Against Oilers
Radko Gudas

Misses Second Straight Game Friday
Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Unavailable Friday
Dan Vladar

Considered a Game-Time Call for Saturday
Jake Sanderson

Ruled Out for Game 4 Due to Concussion
Yakov Trenin

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Stars
Mats Zuccarello

a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Jackson Holliday

Receives Positive Test Results, Will be Shut Down for a Week
Jeff Hoffman

Out as Blue Jays Closer
Youssef Zalal

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Aljamain Sterling

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Co-Main Event
Norma Dumont

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexander Hernandez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 116
Rafa Garcia

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Set For His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jaden McDaniels

Records Double-Double in Game 3
Ayo Dosunmu

Paces Wolves in Game 3 Victory
Jalen Johnson

Flirts with Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Mikal Bridges

Goes Scoreless in Game 3 Loss
Anthony Edwards

Limited to 24 Minutes in Game 3
Jalen Brunson

Pours in 26 Points in Game 3 Defeat
CJ McCollum

Delivers Clutch Shot in Game 3 Win
Jordan Kyrou

Recovering From Minor Knee Procedure
Jake LaRavia

Available for Game 3 Friday
Austin Reaves

Upgraded to Questionable on Injury Report
Francisco Lindor

Expected to Miss "Significant Time"
Francisco Lindor

Mets Officially Place Francisco Lindor on Injured List With Calf Strain
Michael Harris II

Removed Early With Quad Tightness
Francisco Lindor

Likely Headed to the Injured List
Michael Harris II

Continues to Heat Up With Two-Homer Game on Wednesday
Francisco Lindor

Leaves Wednesday's Game Early With Calf Tightness
JR Ritchie

Earns Promotion, Will Make MLB Debut on Thursday
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Go on Injured List With Flexor Strain
Maikel Garcia

Leaves Early on Wednesday With Elbow Soreness
Roman Anthony

Day-to-Day With Sore Back
Juan Soto

Officially Back in Mets Lineup on Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Place J.T. Realmuto on Injured List With Back Injury
Lucas Giolito

Signs With Padres, Worth a Waiver-Wire Pickup?
CFB

Beau Pribula Leading Virginia Quarterback Competition
Marco Penge

Trending Down Entering Zurich Classic
Sahith Theegala

Eyes Another Strong Week at Zurich Classic
Brooks Koepka

Shane Lowry Teams Up with Brooks Koepka at Zurich Classic
Si Woo Kim

Adds Another Strong Finish at RBC Heritage
Luke Clanton

Hoping to Find Form in New Orleans
Scottie Scheffler

is Starting to Hit His Stride
Brooks Koepka

Looking for Progress in PGA Return With Partner at Zurich Classic
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Share Recent Form at Zurich Classic
CFB

Ashton Daniels Named Florida State's Starting Quarterback
Tyler Reddick

Earns His Fifth Win of the 2026 Season at Kansas
Kyle Larson

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Rallies for A New Career-Best Finish at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Leads the Most Laps at Kansas but Misses Out on Victory
Christopher Bell

Falls Out of Contention for Kansas Victory on Final Restart
Mike Malott

Scores Third-Round TKO Win
Gilbert Burns

Retires After UFC Winnipeg Loss
Charles Jourdain

Extends Winning Streak
Kyler Phillips

Drops Decision At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss In His UFC Debut
Jai Herbert

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Karine Silva

Gets Dominated at UFC Winnipeg
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Dominates Karine Silva