NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 8) - Targets and Avoids

Nuggets from Week 7

• The Jaguars have scored less points the last three weeks (28) than they did in Week 4 (31)
• Only the Giants offense could make the Falcons defense have their best game of the season
• The Browns were plus-three in turnovers and lost by three
• New England had a touchdown off a blocked punt and kickoff return

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.

I will also be giving out my three top plays against the spread. I will italicize those three teams. It will look like this: Patriots -7 vs. Jets. The team I like in any given game against the spread will be first.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

Teams favored by more than seven in Week 8 per The Action Network app (home team in caps):

• Patriots -14 + BILLS
• CHIEFS -10 vs. Broncos
• RAMS -9.5 vs. Packers
• STEELERS -8 vs. Browns
• TEXANS -7.5 vs. Dolphins
• BEARS -7.5 vs. Jets

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

Teams on bye: Chargers, Cowboys, Falcons, Titans

Top Survivor Picks for Week 8

In order of my favorite selections:

Patriots -14 @ BILLS (Monday night)

The Patriots are rolling. They'll easily win this game. The question is will they cover? 14 is a ton of points to lay on the road. But New England will score at least 30. Derek Anderson won't be able to lead the offense to more than 14.

Patriots 38 - Bills 14

Here's a daily fantasy tidbit; in his seven career games in Buffalo, Rob Gronkowski is averaging six receptions per game for 104 yards and a touchdown.

CHIEFS -10 vs. Broncos

Another game that doesn't need any stats to back up. The Chiefs will win. The question again is, will they cover? Denver played them to the wire a couple weeks ago, and narrowly lost. They dismantled the Cardinals last Thursday night and had extra time to prepare for the Chiefs. KC wins, but Broncos just cover.

Chiefs 35 - Broncos 26

BENGALS -4.5 vs. Bucs

This is my best bet of the week. Per the Action Network, teams off a blowout loss of 35+ points cover the next week at a 64 percent clip. Cincy is off a 45-10 loss to Kansas City. They also lost a heartbreaker the week before against the Steelers. This is a must-win game for them. They can't lost three in a row and head into their bye week 4-4. Luckily for them, they get right what they need facing the Bucs defense who are 31st in opponent yards per play.

The Bengals are sixth in first quarter scoring while the Bucs allow the fourth-most. Another telling stat is that Tampa is minus-nine in turnover differential, 30th in the league. Jameis Winston has played in 10 quarters thus far, thrown six interceptions and fumbled it four more times. That's a turnover per quarter!

However, the most notable stat is the Bengals are second in red zone touchdown scoring percentage and Tampa's defense is dead last in that category.

The Bucs are off an emotional high after a 59-yard winning field goal. The Bengals season is on the line and they will play like it.

Bengals 34 - Bucs 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

TEXANS -7.5 vs. Dolphins (Thursday night)

The Texans have no business being a touchdown favorite over anyone. Yes, they've won four in a row, but let's take a closer look at those wins: Frank Reich decided to go for it on fourth down from his own 40 in overtime, Jason "The Clapper" Garrett decided not to go for it in overtime on fourth-and-1 on the Texans 40, Nathan Peterman handed them the game, and Blake Bortles looked like the Bortles we all know fumbling away the game. It's not like Deshaun Watson was any good last week: 12-24 for 139 yards. He's also been hit the most (70 times) while the next on that list has been hit 54 times.

Brock Osweiler has been strangely good this season throwing for 8.6 yards per attempt against the Bears and 7.7 against the Lions, both good defenses.

Texans 23 - Dolphins 21

Browns +8 @ STEELERS 

Cleveland is a league-best +10 in turnover margin, three more than the next team. It's a shame their offense is 29th in yards per play and third-down conversion percentage. However, the Steelers defense is just average in terms of yards per play, third-down conversion percentage, and turnovers forced. They are second in sacks, so there's the chance T.J. Watt dominates this game. Baker Mayfield is mobile though and can keep plays alive. Cleveland's defense has kept them in all but one game all season and they'll do that again this week.

Steelers 28 - Browns 24

Jets +7 @ BEARS 

The Bears should not be a touchdown favorite over anyone. The Jets defense is ninth in opponent yards per play and will stifle Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense.

Bears 23 - Jets 21

The Rest 

Eagles -3 vs. Jaguars (London) - Blake Bortles is 3-0 in London with eight touchdowns to one interception. The Jags have averaged 36 points per game in those games. Many believe Bortles will play well in London and turn his season around like he did last year, but I don't buy it. He's looked so bad. The Eagles have a very good defensive line that will pressure Bortles into mistakes. The difference in this game is the Eagles actually have an offense with Carson Wentz at the helm.

Ravens -1.5 @ PANTHERS - This line doesn't make too much sense when looking at it from the outside; a 4-2 team at home an underdog to a 4-3 team? But, when you delve into the stats you see Baltimore's defense is first in opponent yards per play, fourth in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, and fifth in third-down conversion percentage. Vegas is begging you to take the Panthers here. Don't get sucked in.

GIANTS pick'em vs. Redskins - I've said before Washington is the most Jekyll and Hyde team. The Giants have traded Eli Apple and one of the best interior run-stoppers in the league, Damon "Snacks" Harrison this week. It looks like they're tanking. Just when you think they are, means they'll show up and beat their division rival.

Seahawks +3 @ LIONS - Detroit was my best bet of the year last week. But I think this is a letdown spot for them. Seattle is 7-3 straight-up off their bye under Pete Carroll.  

RAIDERS +3 vs. Colts - Here's another team like the Giants that just traded away their best wide receiver. I find it really hard to believe the Colts would be a nine-point favorite if this game were in Indy. Home dogs are 21-13 against the spread this season.

Packers +9.5 @ RAMS - The last time Green Bay took the field was against the 49ers last Monday night where they needed Aaron Rodgers to do everything he could to win. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog than this one and for good reason; there's no stopping the Rams offense. However, Mike McCarthy is 10-4-1 against the spread off a bye. I like them for a nice backdoor cover.

49ers pick'em @ CARDINALS - What an awful game. Niners finally end their five-game losing streak.

VIKINGS -1 vs. Saints (Sunday night) - The Vikings defense is back. They're allowing a league-best 23-percent third-down conversion rate and that number dips to 12-percent over their last three. They're also third in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage. They are fourth in team sacks and now get Everson Griffen back.

New Orleans's defense is 26th in opponent yards per play, 24th in opponent third-down conversion percentage, and 30th in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage.

While Drew Brees has yet to throw an interception this season, somehow the Saints are minus-one in turnover differential.

Brees struggled in both games in Minneosta last season. The Saints are a public team and the Vikings should get the standard three points for being the home team here.

My Running Season Total

• Best bet ATS record: 9-11-1
• This week: Bengals -4.5, Seahawks +3, Vikings -1
• Last week: 2-1

Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 9.

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