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After months of talk and predictions, the NFL returned this past weekend and proved the sports media world has no idea what they're talking about. Despite hours of, "I think" without any evidence to back predictions up, Week 1 shows no one knows anything about football. Some touts expected the Steelers to compete against or defeat the 49ers, but the contrary happened. Some in the media were slurping over Justin Fields and the Bears. They were blown out. That's despite a year's worth of evidence showing Fields is not a very consistent quarterback. It goes to show that whatever the public is thinking goes the opposite way.
Survivor pools were spared with the Commanders just beating the Cardinals. The Ravens were the second-most-picked team in most pools and they cruised in the second half over the Texans. The Vikings and Seahawks lost though, knocking out about a fifth of the entrants. And then my favorite, the missed entries of course. How in the world can you forget to enter your pick in Week 1? But hey, that helps the rest of us.
After Week 1, the overreactions are beginning to pour in. Some of them include: the Chiefs having no weapons besides Travis Kelce so how will they move the ball? Joe Burrow signed the biggest contract and then laid an egg, maybe he's not worth it! Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are back to being average. And the Giants are a bottom-10 team. The NFL is a week-to-week game. There's only been one game played! But all these rapid reactions create value for Week 2.
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NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 2
- Bills -9.5 vs. Raiders
- Cowboys -9.5 vs. Jets
- 49ers -8 at Rams
- Eagles -7 vs. Vikings
- Lions -6 vs. Seahawks
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 2
Giants -4.5 at Cardinals
The Giants were just embarrassed on national television by their rival Cowboys. Usually when a team gets destroyed in a prime time game, they bounce back the next week. This is the perfect spot against the Cardinals. There will be so many Giants fans in Arizona that it'll be like a home game for them.
The Cardinals are probably the worst team in football. Despite them having countless chances against Washington, they couldn't take advantage of any opportunities. They had zero offensive touchdowns, were 4-14 on third down, and 0-2 in the red zone. Joshua Dobbs completed 21 of 30 passes for an anemic 132 yards. That's a putrid 4.4 yards per attempt.
You wonder what would have happened if the opening field goal for the Giants was not blocked and returned for a touchdown. How much different would the game have been? Either way, the Giants will get back to the basics here, run the ball and play good defense. This is my pick.
Giants 30 - Cardinals 14
Saints -3 at Panthers
New Orleans' defensive line harassed Ryan Tannehill all day. They only got three sacks but the constant pressure forced him to checkdown, holding him to 198 passing yards. Bryce Young was only sacked twice but he threw for a paltry 3.8 yards per attempt. If the Panthers don't protect Young on Monday night, it can be a long night for the rookie.
Derek Carr played really well; 305 yards with a very good 9.2 yards per attempt. The running game needs to be better and the Saints need to be better in the red zone after going 1-4.
Saints 28 - Panthers 14
Broncos -3.5 vs. Commanders
Washington was really underwhelming against the Cardinals. Sam Howell was sacked six times. If the line doesn't protect better on Sunday, Denver's defense will run rampant. It's hard to make out the Commanders' defense after one game against Joshua Dobbs, but the Broncos have to do better. As bad as Russell Wilson has looked, they can't start 0-2 again.
Broncos 20 - Commanders 10
49ers -8 at Rams
You'll want to save the Niners for later in the season. But if you want a safer option this week, they're a good one.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 2
Cowboys -9.5 vs. Jets
The Cowboys looked like one of the top teams in Week 1 led by their ferocious defense. Dak Prescott did not have to do anything as the running game, defense, and special teams carried the load. It'll be very interesting to see the Cowboys' offense go against one of the top three defenses in the league. How much can the Jets' defense do without much of an offense after Aaron Rodgers' injury?
As a Jets fan, this is the worst injury I can remember. As soon as Rodgers went down, it brought back memories of Vinny Testaverde in 1999 tearing his Achilles. That year, like this one, had Super Bowl aspirations and it was all over so quickly. It's so heartbreaking and gut-wrenching what happened.
The Jets built the greatest team in franchise history. They had playmakers at every single position. Quarterback was the one piece they needed and they got it with Rodgers. We finally had a quarterback. And he didn't even complete one pass. Four plays and that was it.
There was so much hype for this team (especially from Hard Knocks) and it's just devastating we won't get to see what could have been. And who knows if Aaron Rodgers will ever play again or be 50 percent of what he is. The only player this age who came back from an Achilles tear and still played well is Kobe Bryant.
Zach Wilson is the starting quarterback now. From what we saw Monday night, he has not improved. Of course, many things could change but expect the Jets to rely on the run with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. The defense will keep them in many games. This line is too high.
Cowboys 24 - Jets 20
Bills -9.5 vs. Raiders
You would have thought to save Buffalo before the season. But the way they looked Monday night, maybe get them out of the way early. Josh Allen looks to have reverted to his Wyoming days, an inaccurate gunslinger. It's not just a one-game overreaction, this is how he was toward the end of last season. It could also be the Jets' defense stymied him and the offense. But they had no business losing that game to Zach Wilson.
It's hard to know if the Raiders are any good because the Broncos were so bad last season with a great defense. And that appears to be the case again for Denver. More needs to be seen from Vegas and Buffalo. It's very hard to gauge these teams after just one week. This line seems 2-3 points too high.
Bills 26 - Raiders 21
Eagles -7 vs. Vikings
This will be the Thursday night game. Get ready for everyone to jump on Philly because Kirk Cousins is playing in prime time. It's getting ridiculous people would bet against the Vikings for this sole reason, especially considering Cousins played last Thanksgiving night against the Patriots and won.
Minnesota is going to come out firing after they lost to Tampa Bay on Sunday, a game they should have won. Turnovers did them in. An early fumble led to a Bucs field goal and then Cousins threw an interception in the red zone right before half. So that's a six-point swing and they lost by three.
The Eagles' offense on Sunday was not what many were expecting. They scored one offensive touchdown and settled for four field goals. Jalen Hurts threw for 5.2 yards per attempt, way below average. The team averaged 3.9 yards per carry and their biggest play was 23 yards. It could be that the Patriots have a good defense and/or the Eagles were just sluggish.
If the Vikings take away the stupid mistakes, they'll be right in this one.
Vikings 27 - Eagles 21
Lions -5.5 vs. Seahawks
Everyone loves Detroit after beating Kansas City to open the season. But what if Kadarius Toney had caught the ball that was picked off and returned for a touchdown or made the catch in the fourth quarter that would've put them in field goal range to win? Then this line would be three. Was Jared Goff really that good? More games need to be played.
Seattle was hyped up before the season as a threat to the 49ers in the NFC West, but that seems gone after one game. The Seahawks are a well-rounded team that can pass and run the ball. This line should not be 5.5, but rather three.
Seahawks 30 - Lions 24
Browns -2.5 at Steelers
Is Deshaun Watson washed up? He didn't look good to end last season and he sure did not play well Sunday. It was the Browns' defense that beat the Bengals. Pittsburgh on the other hand was blown out and that game was over early. As I always say, football is a week-to-week game so expect the Steelers to play much better.
Steelers 26 - Browns 19
NFL Best Bets for Week 2
- Giants -4.5 at Cardinals
- Seahawks +5.5 at Lions
- Steelers +2.5 vs. Browns
Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2023 season: 1-2
- 2022 season: 28-23-3
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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