NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 10) - Targets and Avoids

How good is the Kansas City Chiefs defense? They do rank third in opponent yards per play and second in points against with opponents scoring an average of 16 points per game. They have played some pretty bad offenses like the Bears and Broncos twice but they did shut down the Jaguars and Dolphins. But if the Chiefs did not have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback, would the defense be this good? They know they can take chances, jump routes, blitz the house because if they let up a touchdown, it's no big deal, you have Mahomes. Take a team like the Jets or Giants, those defenses know if they let up a touchdown, even two, the offense will really struggle to keep up. The Chiefs have a very good defense but it will be interesting to see how they fare out of their bye week when they host the Eagles, in a Super Bowl rematch, on Monday Night Football.

The two big survivor pool favorites in Week 9, the Browns and Saints, both won. The majority of survivor entrants had those two teams, a handful had the Falcons who lost. And again in my pool, one person forgot to enter their pick so they got out. But mostly everyone advanced in Week 9. We are now halfway through the season so if you made it this far, good job by you. In the pool I was in, next week begins double picks so the going gets harder.

Some of the top teams are on bye this week but there is one massive favorite. This is a difficult week because if you don't have the Cowboys or Bengals available, it will be a difficult one.

 NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 10

• Cowboys -17 vs. Giants
• Bills -7.5 vs. Broncos
• Bengals -7 vs. Texans
• Seahawks -6.5 vs. Commanders
• Ravens -6 vs. Browns

Teams on bye: Broncos, 49ers, Jaguars, Lions

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 10

Cowboys (-17) vs. Giants

This may be the shortest write-up I have to do all season. Dallas is one of the top-10 teams in the league. They have mostly dominated bad teams. The Giants are awful and their season is all-but-over with Daniel Jones tearing his ACL. The Giants will either start Tommy Devito or Matt Barkley. This line can't be high enough.

Cowboys 38 - Giants 10

Bengals (-7) vs. Texans

Cincinnati is rolling. When the Bengals were 1-3, some pundits were wondering if this was a lost year for them. It was some of the most ridiculous "analysis" you could've heard all football season. Joe Burrow suffered that calf injury in training camp and it took a little longer to heal than expected. But then the Bengals dominated the Cardinals, edged out the Seahawks, rolled the 49ers and handled the Bills and now, no one is questioning them. The Bengals look like the team everyone thought they would be. Their upside-down season is actually good thing for survivor because you probably have not picked them yet.

The fact that this line is at seven points says a lot about how Vegas views Cincy. Houston is off a roller-coaster win with an offense that could not be stopped. But the Bengals are still a pretty big favorite. In the last three games, the Bengals' defense has been giving up 16 points per game, fifth-best in the league. But somehow they're giving up the 30th most yards per play on the year. The discrepancy could be because of their red zone defense which ranks in the top-1o. Nonetheless, they'll have their hands full with C.J. Stroud coming into town. Stroud is off a career game, 470 passing yards and four touchdowns. But the Texans' defense was just shredded by Baker Mayfield. Burrow is the difference.

Bengals 24 - Texans 14

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 10

Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Commanders

How in the world is Seattle this big a favorite against Washington? The Seahawks just lost 37-3 to the Ravens, they should have lost to the Browns who were without Deshaun Watson and barely beat Arizona the week prior. We're starting to see the Geno Smith we all were used to seeing before last season's surprise one. Smith has thrown an interception in his last three games which is reportedly worrying Pete Carroll.

Smith's completion percentage is down the last three games as is his yards per attempt.

As I wrote earlier this season, the Commanders do the opposite of what's expected. They were 3.5-point dogs to New England and they won outright. The week prior they were a pretty popular underdog pick against the Eagles and they lost outright. Now this week, they're getting a lot of points when these teams actually look quite even. Sam Howell has tons of confidence and will keep throwing it downfield even if he turned it over on the prior possession.

Commanders 33 - Seahawks 31

Ravens (-6) vs. Browns

Baltimore is one of the hottest teams in football having won four in a row. But now they face a top-defense with an above average quarterback. If Deshaun Watson plays like he did Sunday against the Cardinals, this will be a three-point game. The Browns can give the Ravens a taste of their own medicine in running the ball. The Ravens rank first in that department, the Browns are third. But if Cleveland can get an early lead, they can use their defense to put the Ravens in a spot they're not accustomed to.

Browns 21 - Ravens 19

Bills (-7.5) vs. Broncos

Buffalo is not living up to pre-season expectations. They are dealing with tons of injuries on the defensive side but the offense is nowhere to help the defense. Their stats are good and Josh Allen usually has gaudy numbers but he's thrown an interception in his last five games.

But then you see Allen make this incredible zip of a throw and it makes you realize how good he can be if cut down on the interceptions.

The Broncos are off a bye after having won two in a row. Their defense could cause some problems for Allen. Buffalo should win, but they can't be trusted.

Bills 24 - Broncos 20

Steelers (-3.5) vs. Packers

When I was looking at the weeks ahead in survivor sort of mapping it out, the Steelers piqued my interest. Their defense not only dominates bad quarterbacks, but they're the reason this team is somehow 5-3. The stats I look at don't point to them being this good, but they do average three sacks per game and have a turnover differential of plus-eight. Jordan Love will be the deciding factor in this game. Will we see the quarterback who was nearly flawless Sunday against the Rams or the quarterback who threw an interception in five straight games?

I was actually going to put the Steelers in my target list until I came across this stat.

Packers 20 - Steelers 16

NFL Best Bets for Week 10

• 49ers (-3) at Jaguars - San Fran is the road favorite off a bye, the only trend I follow. After three straight losses, they had a bye week to regroup and I expect them to pound the run and use their defense to stifle the Jaguars.
• Commanders (+6.5) at Seahawks
• Browns (+6) at Ravens

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2023 season: 15-12
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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