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Top NFL prop betting picks and betting advice for Super Bowl LV.I Seth Finkelstein gives an in-depth gambling preview for the big game and his winning bets.
The biggest game of the football season is upon us. While the buildup and game are usually exciting, it's also a melancholy game. We're all excited to watch the game, but as each second passes, the closer we are to not watching a meaningful football game for seven months. That's why you need to make the most of this game.
Most people do that by gathering with friends for parties. However, most of those people don't know anything about football. They cheer for meaningless plays and don't understand the basic concept of 1st-and-10. In fact, for some people, the Super Bowl is the only NFL game they'll watch all season.
For us hardcore fans, at least we have a plethora of wild and crazy prop bets to follow so that we can focus on something meaningful. Below are my recommended prop bets for the Super Bowl. If you're looking to sign up with a sportbook and get some freebies, check out our sports betting promos page.
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Overview
In this column, I will be breaking down the big game including several prop bets, whether it's a player prop or game prop. My best advice would be to handicap the game as to what you think will happen and bet accordingly. If you expect a shootout, then go over on pass attempts and completions. If you expect a ball-control, low-scoring game, then go under rushing yards, etc. I'd highly advise not betting the coin toss. That's because you have to bet $102 to win $100 on a 50/50 chance. You're better off betting that with a friend and this way don't have to pay the extra juice.
I can't stress enough to shop around for the best value. If you're in a state where mobile betting is legalized, you have several sportsbooks to choose from.
These props were found on the several sportsbooks available in New York.
Super Bowl Picks - Player/Game Props
For full disclosure, I have made all the following bets already. I will also note how many units I put on it. The plays are in may order of confidence.
Under 10 points 1st quarter - FanDuel
I wish I had put more than just one unit on this. I got this the night of Championship Sunday when it was at 10. It's since dropped to anywhere from 7.5 to 9.5. In the regular season, the Bengals averaged 4.3 points in the first quarter. The Rams averaged four. In the playoffs the number has ticked up to Bengals 6.3 and Rams 5.7. But if we saw anything through the playoffs, the Bengals have tried establishing the run early. The Rams take the play clock down to :01 seconds each time. Super Bowls also have a history of teams starting slow.
*One unit* -- if you can get 10 at no more than -120, I'd go up to five units.
Joe Mixon under 26.5 receiving yards - DraftKings
Roofus Peabody explained on VSIN when the Bengals get behind, Mixon gets less involved in the passing game while Samaje Perine gets more involved.
*3.5 units*
Evan McPherson over 1.5 field goals (-130) - Caesars
The Bengals' kicker has went to heights this postseason. He's now being called the second-best kicker behind Justin Tucker. In the Bengals' last 10 games, he's attempted 31 field goals and made 29. His last miss was Dec. 26. McPherson has accounted for 49 of the Bengals' 72 postseason points. If he gets two shots to make field goals, he'll make them both.
*Two units*
Joe Burrow over 11.5 rushing yards - DraftKings
It's no secret, Cincinnati's offensive line is not good. Burrow got sacked nine times in Tennessee, but in Kansas City got out of the pocket and rushed for 25 yards on five carries. I expect a similar situation against the Rams. Aaron Donald and that front will either get enough pressure on Burrow that he will have to run sometimes. Plus, this is the Super Bowl. If it were a regular season game, you could see Burrow being more cautious such as throwing the ball away, but not in this game.
*Two units*
Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 (-125) - BetMGM
This bet is only available during prime-time regular season games and playoff games. It's heavy vig, but worth it. With referees reviewing every scoring play, how often is the runner down just before the goal line which then sets up the 1-yard touchdown? The over/under is 48.5 which means we're expecting a good amount of points and touchdowns. More chances to get that one-yard touchdown.
*Two units*
Sack before touchdown pass (even) - FanDuel
I expect both teams to start out slow. The Rams have a great pass rush so they should get to Burrow fairly quickly. The Bengals have a good pass rush and Stafford is not mobile.
*1.5 units*
Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass (+190) - FanDuel
I bet this every Super Bowl. It hasn't hit the last couple of years, but it's surely a fun one. All you need is one non-quarterback to throw a pass and you win. Very simple.
*One unit*
Successful two-point conversion - YES (+250) - DraftKings
This is more of a gut feeling. If there either team does go for a two, I think they'll get it.
*One unit*
Rams to convert a fourth-down conversion - YES (-122) - FanDuel
Teams go for fourth downs all the time, I can't see them not going for at least one. I'd also play the Bengals but it's -142 which is too much.
*One unit*
Opening kickoff to be a touchback - YES (-150) - BetRivers
*1.5 units*
Super Bowl Score Prediction
The Bengals have not won the last two games, rather the Titans and Chiefs lost them. Cincinnati allowed Tennessee and Kansas City to make the mistakes. Against Oakland in the first round, the referees played a big part on that touchdown pass when a whistle was blown. Joe Burrow has been phenomenal, but this is the best defense he will face this postseason. The Rams' defensive live will do enough to make things uncomfortable for Burrow.
The Rams have tons of weapons. If it's not Cooper Kupp, you have to worry about Odell Beckham Jr., and Cam Akers. Matthew Stafford has stepped his game up. His leadership and being a veteran will give the Rams just enough to win the Super Bowl on their home turf.
Rams 27 - Bengals 20
Running Totals
- 2021 season total: 27-26-1
- 2020 season total: 24-27
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
Thanks for reading my columns all year. I'll be back writing my NFL Survivor Picks series in the fall!
