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Top NFL prop betting picks and betting advice for Super Bowl LV. Seth Finkelstein gives an in-depth gambling preview for the big game and his winning bets.
The NFL did it. They defied the notion a season couldn't be played during a pandemic. An ESPN report detailed just how good of a job they did; since Aug.1, there were 724 positive tests out of 954,830 tests. That's a positivity rate of 0.076 percent. The infection rate stayed so low throughout the worst months this country has seen in the pandemic. There were several postponements, but no cancellations. All playoff games went on as scheduled. It was truly remarkable to see. Now it's Super Bowl week.
Overview
In this column, I will be breaking down the big game including several prop bets, whether it's a player prop or game prop. My best advice would be to handicap the game as to what you think will happen and bet accordingly. If you expect a shootout, then go over on pass attempts and completions. If you expect a ball-control, low-scoring game, then go under rushing yards, etc. I'd highly advise not betting the coin toss. That's because you have to bet $102 to win $100 on a 50/50 chance. You're better off betting that with a friend and this way don't have to pay the extra juice.
I can't stress enough to shop around for the best value. If you're in Nevada, you have a plethora of sportsbooks to choose from. If you're in New Jersey, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet are options. If you're unfamiliar with gambling, -110 means you have to lay $110 to win $100. If the line is +110, that means you bet $100 to win $110.
These props were found in VSIN's 97-page prop bet compilation, as well as DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks. Yes, 97 pages. I read it all. Let's dig in!
Super Bowl Picks - Player/Game Props
Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 (-140) - South Point
I bet this every chance I could in the postseason. It's heavy juice, but worth it. With referees reviewing every scoring play, how often is the runner down just before the goal line which then sets up the 1-yard touchdown? The over/under is 56 which means we're expecting a lot of points and touchdowns. More chances to get that 1-yard touchdown.
First pass attempt of Patrick Mahomes incomplete (+180), Tom Brady (+175) incomplete - South Point
Last year, Mahomes threw an incompletion on his first attempt. Jimmy Garoppolo completed it. Two years ago, both Tom Brady and Jared Goff threw an incompletion on their first attempt. How will that impact this game? There is absolutely no correlation but if you bet both and one of them throws an incomplete pass on that first pass, you win, because you're getting plus money on both.
Antonio Brown over 38.5 receiving yards (-110) - Circa
Brown has played 10 games this year and went over this mark in six of them. It's no secret Brown is Brady's favorite weapon and loves to get him the ball. Say what you want about Brown off-the-field, on-the-field, he's electric. He could very well be the x-factor in this one. I think this is too low.
Sammy Watkins over 2.5 receptions (-150) - Circa
Watkins has not played since Dec. 27 against the Falcons. All the attention will be on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Total penalties accepted under 10.5 (+105) - Circa
Flags fly seemingly every other play during the regular season. Refs love to throw them on the slightest nudge even when the ball is thrown to the other side of the field. But not in the playoffs. They let them play. Both championship games stayed under 10.5. Just one of four divisional games did. And the Wild Card round saw two out of six go over the number. That's a record of nine to the under, three to the over. In the past five Super Bowls, this under would have hit in three of them. This number is just way way too high and you're getting plus money.
Total players with a pass attempt over 2.5 (+150) - Circa
This is a fun prop. Last year I had it and the 49ers ran an end-around to Deebo Samuel, he stopped looking to throw, I jumped up but then no one was open and he ran it for a loss. I knew right then and there I lost my chance. But all you need is one trick play, one fake punt, one botched field goal snap with the holder throwing it, anything of that nature. I hate to say this, but an injury to a quarterback gets you the win too.
Total punts under 6.5 (-150) - Station Casinos
In the postseason, the Bucs punted nine times in three games while the Chiefs punted once in two games. Think of the modern NFL. You get the ball at the 25. One 20 yard pass and you're already at the 45. Throw in another 10-yarder and you're already in opponent territory. Now it's pretty much four-down territory. Andy Reid and Bruce Arians will take their shots on fourth down in this game. Which leads me to...
Will Chiefs convert a 4th down attempt? - Superbook
Yes (-120)
Will Bucs convert a 4th down attempt? - Superbook
Yes (-120)
Cross-Sports Props
Jon Rahm -0.5 4th round birdies vs. Leonard Fournette receptions (-120) - Superbook
Rahm has never finished worse than T-16 at the Phoenix Open. He loves this course as he played college golf at Arizona State and now lives in Arizona. He made five birdies last year and is one of the top players on tour. If he's hot, look out.
Who will have more? James Harden points +0.5 total points in 1st half (-110) - Superbook
The Nets will be playing the Sixers Saturday night on a back-to-back. That means there's a possibility Kevin Durant sits out. Harden has been averaging 24.3 points per game in Brooklyn but that will surely be higher if Durant doesn't play. The over/under in the first half is 27.5 but I expect that to go under.
Super Bowl Score Prediction
This game comes down to the Bucs' ability to pressure Mahomes without blitzing. They have the players to do it; Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, and William Gholston. They harassed Aaron Rodgers who did not seem to face much pressure all season. The Chiefs' offensive line lost their starting left tackle, Eric Fisher, in the AFC title game. They'll be missing three of their five starting offensive linemen from the beginning of the year. Only the center, Austin Reiter, is in the same position from Week 1. All of this could be a moot point because Mahomes is a magician.
But then there are the Bucs linebackers featuring Devin White who's all over the field. Their secondary takes chances but they're fearless. And they're led by defensive guru Todd Bowles.
Bucs 27 - Chiefs 21
Bucs win by 4-6 points (+1000) - South Point
Thanks for reading my columns all year. I'll be back writing my NFL Survivor Picks series in the fall!
