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Gage Bridgford provides his favorite NFL player prop bets for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers in Week 13. His top props betting picks, all free.
As we head into Week 13, this NFL season continues to sort itself out on a weekly basis. We have the teams more and more understood, but there are still weird happenings that occur each week. One big issue we've been dealing with has been blowouts or teams going flat after being on a good pace. Ideally, we're looking for games to remain close throughout, or we want to be on the side that is trying to work their way back into the game when we're playing overs.
Last week, we saw a couple of relatively easy wins with Jaylen Waddle and DeAndre Hopkins, but we came up short in other areas. Travis Kelce looked like he was on pace for another strong outing, but he cooled off along with the rest of the offense. Christian McCaffrey was on pace for easy cash, and he had four receptions midway through the third quarter. He didn't see another target for the rest of the game because the team had the game firmly in hand with no reason to throw. Kenneth Walker was my worst call of the week. If you had told me the team scored 34 points and went to overtime, I would have assumed that he was a lock. Unfortunately, he never even came close as the team struggled to run the ball afternoon long.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12
O76.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
We’re playing Philadelphia Eagles wideout A.J. Brown against the Tennessee Titans for a few different reasons. For one, he’s in a revenge-game spot against his former team that felt they were better off without the star wideout. For two, the matchup is an outstanding one. On the year, the Titans give up an average of 74.3 yards per game to opposing WR1s. Additionally, the Eagles just got done running roughshod over the Green Bay Packers, but the Titans rank 1st by DVOA against the run compared to 17th against the pass.
Brown hit this mark in three of his first four games, but he has hit this just once in his last seven games. However, the team hasn’t necessarily needed to throw the ball a ton due to the effectiveness of their running game. Brown is about to pass his yardage total from 13 games last season in this game, and he has the size to win against his former team in this matchup. If the Eagles are going to come out of this game with a win, we should see a hefty dose of Brown.
U54.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Denver Broncos running back Latavius Murray was on the New Orleans Saints back in October. Now, he’s the starter for the Broncos after their previous two running backs were injured and cut. Murray has gone over this mark twice since he joined the Broncos and three times during the year. Murray played 82 percent of the snaps last week, but that was more due to the recent cutting of Melvin Gordon than the confidence they had in Murray.
The Baltimore Ravens are allowing opposing running backs to average just 3.9 yards per carry this season, and they have held each of their last four RB1 opponents under this mark. In fact, they’ve held each of those four opponents to 30 yards or less. They’re eighth by DVOA against the pass compared to ninth against the run, but they’ve been much softer against the pass than against the run this year. If Baltimore gets out to a lead, they can put Murray in check for this week.
U71.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Since running 35 times for 152 yards, Barkley has 16 carries for 61 yards in his last two games. One major reason for those struggles has been the offensive line injuries. The team has been missing multiple players along the offensive line, and they’re still dealing with injuries entering this week’s game. After clearing this mark in six of his first seven games, Barkley has now missed it in four of his last five games, which have all come when the team has been trailing and with offensive line injuries.
The Washington Commanders are healthy on the defensive side of the ball, and they’ve only been allowing an average of 53.6 rushing yards per game to opposing RB1s this season. They’re 14th by DVOA against the pass, but they’re fourth against the run. They’ve held five of their last six opposing RB1s below this mark, and they’re playing their best ball right now. Meanwhile, the Giants and Barkley have been fading after their hot start.
Quinnen Williams
O0.75 Sacks
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -110
New York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams has been one of the league’s best defensive linemen this year, and he’s been particularly strong rushing the passer. He leads the team with eight sacks, and he’s cleared this mark in three of his last four games and four of his last six. Now, he’s going up against an offensive line that has given up eight sacks in their last two games.
Rookie right guard Ed Ingram has struggled this year as he’s allowed seven sacks in 11 games. Between Sheldon Rankins and Williams, Ingram will have his hands full all game long, and the Jets will work to get Williams one-on-one opportunities in that matchup. Presuming the Jets and their sixth-ranked defense against the run force the Vikings to throw, Williams can rack up another one.
Jaylen Waddle
O23.5 Yards Longest Reception
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -110
On the year, Miami Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle has hit this mark in all eight games that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished the game, and he’s hit it nine of his 11 games overall. Waddle remains one of the top two receiving weapons in this offense, and he’s seeing an average of 7.7 targets per game with an average of 11.3 yards per target, which is a four-yard increase over where he was at during his rookie season.
The San Francisco 49ers have the league’s fifth-best defense, and they have the 10th-rated defense against the pass. However, they have allowed at least one reception of 23.5 yards or more in all but two games this year. The lone exceptions were their two dominating wins over the Los Angeles Rams. With the speed that Waddle possesses, he has the ability to break one big play at any time.
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