NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 4) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pickem Contests

September 30, 2023

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. Andrew's weekly NFL Pick Em pool targets, avoids and predictions to help win pickem contests.

Week 3 of the NFL season gave us three teams that were underdogs by a touchdown or more leave victorious. Plus, an explosion of offense from the Miami Dolphins. That may make it seem like offenses across the league are starting to round into midseason form, but a majority of the matchups still hit the under this week. Now, we're onto Week 4.

Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.

Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.

Week 4 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - San Francisco vs. Arizona
• 15 - Kansas City at New York Jets
• 14 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas
• 13 - Philadelphia vs. Washington
• 12 - Dallas vs. New England

Arizona looks exponentially better than analysts believed they would be this season and they are coming off of a big win against Dallas. However, the 49ers look to be the most complete team in football and should have no problem dispatching their divisional foe at home. The Chiefs have a second straight cupcake on their schedule with a matchup against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. Wilson's play has been bench-worthy but coach Robert Saleh is sticking with the young quarterback.

Justin Herbert threw for over 400 yards which helped the Chargers pick up their first win of the season in Minnesota. The offense will continue to hum along against a beatable Raiders defense. Washington may have finally shown us their true colors following a 2-0 start. Sam Howell threw four picks and got sacked nine times in their blowout loss to Buffalo. The Dallas Cowboys will be embarrassed after a loss in Arizona and will take it out on an average New England Patriots team at home in Week 4.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 4 Pick 'Em Pools

11 - Seattle at New York Giants

The Seahawks have overcome what is statistically one of the worst pass defenses in the league to a 2-1 record. Shells of prime Andy Dalton and Adam Thielen tallied 361 passing yards and 145 receiving yards, respectively, against what I'm referring to as the Legion of Room. Reinforcements are on the way, as All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams (quad) is scheduled to play for the first time since Week 1 of 2022 and cornerback Tariq Woolen (chest) has a good chance of suiting up.

The New York Giants haven't shown anything to prove that they're as good as the team that made the postseason last year. A shootout could happen (as has been the case for a couple of Seattle's games this season) but the Giants don't have the offensive weapons to keep up, especially if running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) isn't ready to return.

10 - Minnesota at Carolina

One of these teams was projected to be 0-3. Minnesota was not that team. The Vikings have been unable to find their late-game magic from last season and have lost all three of their games by a combined 13 points.

The Carolina Panthers (-27 point differential) have not shown that they are better than a 0-3 team. The pass offense (which was almost non-existent under rookie quarterback Bryce Young) looked better against Seattle with Andy Dalton at the helm. Young (ankle) could miss this game as well. If the Vikings were to drop this game, the immediate future for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota could get very murky.

9 - Jacksonville vs. Atlanta (in London)

Jacksonville is the home team here, but the game is being played in London. It's actually the first of two straight games for the Jaguars in the capital city of England and probably the easier of the two (we'll get to that one in next week's column).

The Atlanta Falcons, somewhat surprisingly, jumped out to a 2-0 start but looked incapable of adjusting to an offense not built on running the football when Detroit sold out to stop that aspect of the game. Desmond Ridder threw for just 201 yards on 38 attempts.

The Jaguars may have been just one capable running back performance in Week 1 (Deon Jackson ran 13 times for 14 yards) from being 0-3. They showed they don't yet belong in the same class as Kansas City and then got blown out at home by Houston. It's too early to give up on this talented roster yet but they are on thin ice.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Up Of Week 4

8 - Detroit at Green Bay

Our first interdivisional Thursday Night Football matchup of the season!

Jordan Love has set a new standard for himself. He didn't throw the ball that accurately in Week 1 but threw touchdowns at the opportune times to win. Week 2 didn't go as the Packers planned, blowing a late lead to the Atlanta Falcons. Then in Week 3, it looked like they were doomed to repeat in the loss column until Love led three straight scoring drives in the fourth quarter to beat New Orleans (and ruined the New Orleans pick I had made).

The Detroit Lions, however, have looked like the more complete team through three weeks. Jared Goff has an emerging tight end star in Sam LaPorta, an already dominant wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a stable of capable running backs, including the diverse Jahmyr Gibbs. Not to mention, their run defense shut down the Falcons' two-pronged rushing attack, something the Packers were unable to do (44 rushing yards allowed versus 211).

7 - New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay

The version of the Buccaneers we saw on Monday night is the one many expected when the season started. They pulled off the upset against Minnesota in Week 1 and then easily dispatched the lowly Chicago Bears to start 2-0. But when matched up against a contender like Philadelphia, Tampa Bay was outshined. Their touchdown drive didn't come until the Eagles already went up by three scores. The yardage totals were laughably unbalanced and the time of possession ended nearly two to one.

New Orleans will almost surely be without starting quarterback Derek Carr (shoulder) on Sunday but they do have Jameis Winston in a revenge game against the team that drafted him first overall. Winston is one of the more serviceable backups across the NFL.

The Saints have demonstrated that they are one of the best defenses in the league. Mike Evans beating cornerback Marshon Lattimore in coverage has been a career-long endeavor. Taking away the Bucs' best offensive weapon and continuing to play tenacious defense elsewhere sounds like a winning recipe.

6 - Pittsburgh at Houston

On the broadcast of Sunday Night Football, Cris Collinsworth asked Mike Tirico if the Raiders' offense was bad, or if the Steelers were one of the elite defenses in the NFL. Tirico, rightfully, declined to answer the question. The Steelers' defense is good, but should they be spoken of in the same breath as San Francisco, Cleveland, or Dallas? It's too soon to tell.

What can be said for sure is that the Steelers will confuse quarterback C.J. Stroud with some of their looks. The rookie has played really well through three games but he hasn't faced a pass rush like Pittsburgh yet.

5 - Indianapolis vs. Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Kyren Williams have been surprise weapons for Matthew Stafford. Has tape exposed the secrets to shutting down these previously unheralded skill position players or did Stafford and the offensive line flounder on Monday Night Football?

The Colts are coming off an impressive road win over the Baltimore Ravens with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew at the helm. Rookie starter Anthony Richardson (concussion) should be back. Running back Zack Moss is running with efficiency and Michael Pittman Jr. looks to be taking another step toward becoming an elite receiver.

4 - Miami vs. Buffalo

Buffalo is the favorite in this game and they have every right to be. The Dolphins haven't won in upstate New York since 2016 (prior to the arrival of Josh Allen) and the Bills are coming off a 37-3 thumping of the Commanders in Washington. But Miami was even more impressive in Week 3 (and have been all season long).

726 yards and 70 points is, quite honestly, insane to think about in professional football. As we've seen from Tua Tagovailoa and Co., this is not just a flash in the pan. They racked up 536 yards in Week 1 and nearly 400 yards against a very good New England defense in Week 2. The Bills' defense has been solid but it doesn't seem like anybody can slow down the Dolphins right now.

3 - Tennessee vs. Cincinnati

The Titans continue to be the most maddening team in the league. They failed to score a touchdown in Week 1, came back in Week 2 to outgun the Chargers, and then mustered just 94 total yards and six first downs against Cleveland in Week 3. Could the Jekyll and Hyde act be as simple as playing at home versus on the road?

Derrick Henry may have finally hit the inevitable running back wall. He, of course, got stuffed against Cleveland. His season average per carry is just 3.2 yards and he's not running over defenders as he has for the last seven years.

But there's an offense that looks more lamentable than Tennessee (when factoring in expectations) and that's their Week 4 opponent, the Bengals. Joe Burrow hasn't looked right since his calf injury and they can't run the ball efficiently (which won't improve against the Titans). They finally made a conscious effort to get Ja'Marr Chase involved on Monday night but they still didn't look like the Bengals of 2022 or 2021. With Tennessee at home, they're the pick here.

2 - Cleveland vs. Baltimore

It may be time that the Cleveland defense is mentioned with the other elite units in the league (you may have noticed I did exactly that earlier in this article). Myles Garrett and crew aren't as splashy as Dallas or San Francisco because of a lack of forced turnovers. The Browns have one interception and one fumble recovery on the season (coincidentally both by safety Grant Delpit). They are just inside the top 12 when it comes to sacks. But they allow about 90 yards less per game than the second-best defense.

Lamar Jackson is having his best statistical passing season when it comes to completion percentage but the touchdown numbers aren't there. Plus, he's tied for the lead league in fumbles (four, with two lost).

This matchup sets up to be a knock-down, drag-out AFC North battle. The Browns proved they could win with a lack of power rushing game against Tennessee. They'll need to win in a similar fashion at home against Baltimore.

1 - Denver at Chicago

I'd insert a gif of someone vomiting here to accurately describe how I feel about this game but I think you get the picture. This pair may be the two worst teams in the league. Both are sporting a 0-3 record and are two of three teams with a point differential of -50 or worse (the New York Giants are the third team).

The Broncos' defense has allowed the most points against through three weeks (sure, allowing 70 points in one game will skew that number but they also let the Commanders drop 35 on them). Are we confident that Justin Fields still won't look like a Division III passer against one of the worst defenses in football?

Until this Chicago offense shows any signs of life, they won't be picked to win.

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