NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 18) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pickem Contests

January 2, 2024

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Andrew's weekly NFL Pick Em pool targets, avoids and predictions to help win pick 'em contests.

The final week of the NFL regular season is the toughest to predict. There's a handful of teams fighting for their playoff lives, another group far removed from the picture, and the select few that are locked into their playoff spot and have nothing to play for.

Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.

Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of the first game. Injury question marks for Sunday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.

Week 18 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Tampa Bay at Carolina
• 15 - Dallas at Washington
• 14 - Detroit vs. Minnesota
• 13 - Seattle at Arizona
• 12 - Philadelphia at New York Giants
• 11 - Jacksonville at Tennessee

Tampa Bay's mission is simple. Win and they capture the NFC South crown and a playoff spot. Lucky for them, they draw the worst team in the NFL, Carolina. It's a similar story for another Florida team, the Jacksonville Jaguars. A win for Doug Pederson's squad would clinch an AFC South title. A loss and it gets messy with Houston and Indianapolis nipping at their heels (more on that matchup below).

Detroit, Dallas, and Philadelphia have all clinched a playoff spot, but they're jostling for seeding. Currently, Dallas is the second seed due to their controversial victory over Detroit. The Lions will seemingly trot out their star players against Minnesota, in the off chance that Dallas and Philadelphia stumble. The Eagles will do the same, as a victory for them and a Dallas loss would push Philly to the top of the NFC East.

The Seahawks need to win and get help from the Bears to secure the final NFC Wild Card spot. A date in Arizona is a good start for that formula.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 18 Pick 'Em Pools

10 - Buffalo at Miami

The AFC East title is up for grabs and it all comes down to the final game of the NFL regular season.

The league scheduled the Bills and Dolphins on Sunday Night Football. The winner claims the division and the two seed in the AFC. If Miami loses, they'll still be in the postseason as a Wild Card team. If Buffalo loses, there's an outside chance that they fall out of the playoffs.

The books like Buffalo as a road favorite in this matchup. Winners of five of their last six games, the Bills are one of the hottest teams in the league since firing their offensive coordinator. Injuries continue to pile up for the Dolphins, as they just lost another starting pass rusher in Bradley Chubb.

That's in addition to Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert, who are dealing with their ailments on the offensive side of the ball. Mostert has a better chance of returning, but there's still a lot of talent on the sidelines.

9 - New Orleans vs. Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons are behind the eliminated Chicago Bears in the standings but still have a shot at the postseason. That's the beauty (if you choose to look at it that way) of the NFC South. A team with a losing record can win the division and host a playoff game.

Then again, New Orleans also has a shot at the division title (and they'd have a winning record). Both teams need Tampa Bay to collapse against lowly Carolina. If the Bucs clinch the division, the Saints need both Green Bay and Seattle to lose (or tie) to secure a postseason berth.

Both of these teams are wildly inconsistent and now dealing with injuries to important pieces on offense. Alvin Kamara and Taylor Heinicke will surely be questionable, if not worse, come Sunday.

8 - Pittsburgh at Baltimore

The Steelers need to win and have some friends help them out. Interestingly, they'll get to watch it all unfold.

Let's start with their game. The Ravens earned a first-round bye and the top seed in the AFC. Head coach John Harbaugh has rested starters in the past. It seems unlikely that we'll see MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson on the field on Saturday. That places the Steelers as road favorites.

This game lines up as the first of the Week 18 slate. If Pittsburgh pulls out a W, they'll get to watch the Texans and Colts battle (which ultimately doesn't mean much to them unless it ends in a tie). Then, on Sunday, they'll root like hell for the Titans and/or the Dolphins to win, as they need at least one of Jacksonville or Buffalo to lose.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 18

7 - Cincinnati vs. Cleveland

One of the best stories in the league this season has nothing else to play for, at least this week. Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns are locked into the fifth seed in the AFC.

Their opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, has nothing to play for either. The season went down the drain the second Joe Burrow was placed on season-ending injured reserve. The final drip to mediocrity was last Sunday when a loss to Kansas City eliminated them from playoff contention.

While it's certain that Cincinnati's season ends on Sunday, they won't be resting and protecting players for future games. The Browns seem likely to go in that direction, whether it be for the entire game or a half of football.

6 - Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers

Similar to Cleveland, the Kansas City Chiefs are also locked into their playoff seed. They claimed the AFC West title again, secured the third seed, and will host at least one playoff game. The trip to Los Angeles may feel more like a vacation for some of the Chiefs' star players. Coach Andy Reid typically rests starters in this situation. Oddsmakers expect that as well, listing the Chargers as two-point favorites at the time of this writing.

"If he wants us to get out there and kind of build off this momentum that we have, I’ll be ready to go, and if he wants to give us some rest then I’ll get that rest, prepare for whoever we’re going play, and be ready to go in the playoffs.” - Patrick Mahomes

Cincinnati has been competitive and has talent on the offensive side of the football, which is why they were picked in the "meaningless" game above. The same can't be said for the Chargers, who only scored nine points against a Denver defense that allows the seventh-most points per game this season. Easton Stick is leading this team to loss after loss. The defense already had their issues. Even if it's Blaine Gabbert under center, the Chiefs may have enough talent to win a game that they don't need.

5 - San Francisco vs. Los Angeles Rams

Look, another team with nothing to play for!

The San Francisco 49ers clinched the top spot in the NFC playoffs with their win over the Commanders and the Eagles' embarrassing home loss to the Cardinals.

Christian McCaffrey is already ruled out with a calf injury so he can be healthy in a few weeks when the Niners will play again. With the first-round bye factored into the equation, coach Kyle Shanahan may play his healthy starters. He typically likes to play his starters but says he has not made decisions yet on who will start and who will sit.

The Rams can only marginally move in the NFC standings. If they lose and the Packers win on Sunday, Green Bay will pass Los Angeles and be the sixth seed. Either way, they're playing on the road when the postseason begins, so health may be Sean McVay's biggest priority in Week 18.

4 - Las Vegas vs. Denver

Amid all these games that mean something for at least one team, we arrive at Las Vegas versus Denver. These two AFC West teams have been eliminated from the postseason. But we're playing a pick 'em challenge, so we have to pick a winner.

We're a long way removed from Week 1, the last time these two teams squared off. Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson were the starters back then. Now, it's Aidan O'Connell and Jarrett Stidham.

The Broncos seem to be nearing a reset. Sean Payton will be back, but Wilson probably won't be and the defense needs an overhaul. The Raiders are building toward something. O'Connell may not be the franchise quarterback but he's at worst a solid backup. Interim coach Antonio Pierce is trying to lose the interim tag and he has the defense playing extremely well.

3 - Chicago at Green Bay

The Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention but don't let that distract you from the fact that they're playing their best football of the campaign and get the chance to play spoiler. They have nothing to lose. They already own the first overall pick from Carolina, so a win won't hurt their draft capital, as it would only slightly drop their own pick.

It's simple for Green Bay. Win and they secure a Wild Card berth. Defeating their biggest rival who would love to end their season is anything but simple. The Bears may be the more consistent team out of the two right now and I like them as road underdogs to end Green Bay's season.

2 - New York Jets at New England

Cancun on three!

Another game on the slate that only impacts the draft order in April. If anything, the Patriots should be trying to lose on Sunday so they keep the third overall pick and can take another crack at finding a franchise quarterback.

The New York Jets are just biding their time, waiting to run it back in next season. GM Joe Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers will all be back so they can see how it would have played out if Rodgers hadn't torn his Achilles.

They've also been a more competent and competitive team (somehow) than the Patriots. We'll see which team is motivated to end their season with a win, which is why this game is ranked as low as it is.

1 - Houston at Indianapolis

Saturday night in primetime, the playoffs actually begin. The Colts and Texans clinch a playoff spot with a win. The loser's season is over. There are a bunch of different situations that come into play with a tie but we're not going to get into all of that.

The winner then gets to watch on Sunday to see if the Jaguars lose to the Titans. If they do, the Texans or Colts win the AFC South and get to host a playoff game.

Untimely injuries have put the Texans into this situation. It's a large reason why they are .500 in their last four games. C.J. Stroud is back. Nico Collins is back. They were dominant in their victory over the Titans. In what is almost a pick 'em in Vegas, it's the rookie quarterback's time to shine.

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