RADIO
"Bye-nado: The Sequel". Coming this Sunday to your TV. For the second time this season, six teams are taking a mini-vacation. Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota, and the New York Giants are all on bye in Week 13.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 13 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 13 - Miami at Washington
- 12 - Kansas City at Green Bay
- 11 - Los Angeles Chargers at New England
- 10 - Dallas vs. Seattle
- 9 - Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati
The Dolphins have been taking care of bad teams with relative ease and the Commanders fall into that category. The defense is stepping up to match the production level of the offense, making this a complete, dangerous team with the playoffs a stone's throw away. A similar case can be made for Kansas City, although their matchup is a bit tougher as they travel to Green Bay.
The Chargers aren't a good football team (despite the talent up and down that roster) and coach Brandon Staley is almost sure to be handed his walking papers before or at the end of the season. But bad teams can easily dispatch teams clearly in the running for the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Mac Jones is done as the franchise quarterback for the Patriots.
Dallas is on a roll and has won 13 straight home games. The Seahawks, with a wounded Geno Smith, are trending in the opposite direction. The Bengals are broken without Joe Burrow and it's officially a lost season. Jacksonville continues to rack up wins as they make their case for the top seed in the AFC.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 13 Pick 'Em Pools
8 - Detroit at New Orleans
The Detroit Lions haven't looked like themselves in the past couple of weeks. They needed a pair of last-minute touchdowns to defeat Chicago and then got embarrassed by Green Bay at home on Thanksgiving Day. This road matchup against New Orleans may be even easier.
Michael Thomas is already on injured reserve. Chris Olave departed Sunday's game with a concussion, putting his status in doubt for Week 13. Rashid Shaheed was injured even earlier in the contest. Derek Carr may only have Taysom Hill left to target downfield. Taysom Hill will have, erm, Taysom Hill to target.
In all seriousness, A.T. Perry, Hill, Juwan Johnson, and Alvin Kamara will have to pick up the slack (Johnson also left the game with an injury but returned). The Detroit secondary will not be worried about at least half of that group. Count on the Lions to bounce back in a winnable road game.
7 - Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
The two worst teams in the worst division in football! This will be fun.
There's no question that the Panthers are the cellar dwellers of the NFL. They can't stop the run, the offense is abysmal, and there's no light at the end of the tunnel because Chicago owns their first-round pick. Frank Reich has been fired as Bryce Young has shown zero signs of improvement, no matter which coach is calling the plays.
The Buccaneers aren't much better but stay competitive. Mike Evans is nearing his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season, which is the gift that keeps on giving for Baker Mayfield. Rachaad White is dynamic in both facets of the offensive attack, now that he's not facing the best defenses in football week after week. Tampa Bay is a near-touchdown favorite at home.
6 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland
This may be the beginning of the collapse of the Cleveland Browns. One team can only sustain so many injuries before losses begin to pile up. Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson are already done for the season. Amari Cooper sustained a rib injury on Sunday. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is in the league's concussion protocol. Most importantly, Myles Garrett, one of the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year, felt a pop in his shoulder.
Injuries have also derailed the Rams' season, but they're now getting healthier and have a legitimate shot at sneaking into a Wild Card spot. Cooper Kupp still doesn't look 100 percent, but Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are picking up the offensive slack.
The Browns are practicing on the West Coast this week which will mitigate some travel hangover, but that's also a long time for players to be away from home. The healthier and fresher team wins at home.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 13
5 - Atlanta at New York Jets
Just one game separates the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets. Atlanta is leading their division. New York is four games out of first place in their grouping. Go figure.
To absolutely nobody's surprise, Tim Boyle was not the answer at quarterback that the Jets' coaching staff was looking for. They're still going to stick with him for another game at least. Instead of pointing the finger at himself, Boyle, the roster construction, or literally anybody else, coach Robert Saleh threw shade at his best offensive weapon.
That's going to win over the locker room for sure. (I actually think Saleh is a good coach who is being dealt a terrible hand. But that's neither here nor there right now).
Arthur Smith is still allergic to dialing up passing plays. The Falcons ran the ball 41 times (for the second time in as many weeks) in their victory over the Saints. When they did drop back, the targets were funneled to Drake London and Bijan Robinson. Amazing what happens when the best offensive weapons get the football in their hands.
The weakness of the Jets' defense is the run. Atlanta will try their best to top the 40-carry mark for the fourth time this season, which will likely lead to another sloppy victory.
4 - Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
They did it! For the first time all season, the Steelers outgained their opponent! Not coincidentally, this was the first game since the team fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
Was it overly impressive? No, they still only scored 16 points and one touchdown. But they were able to avoid three-and-outs (zero on the afternoon) which allowed their defense to rest, recover, and make plays on that side of the football. That's the style of play that Pittsburgh made famous.
Kyler Murray continues to get his feet under him in his first few games back in the lineup, but the rest of that roster is dreadful. Murray was routinely pressured, the offense had zero rhythm outside of the first drive, and the run defense allowed nearly seven yards per carry on 33 attempts (that's 228 yards, for those who don't want to do the math).
3 - Houston vs. Denver
The Denver Broncos continue to win games, are tied for the longest winning streak in the league (five games), and secured a victory over the Browns in a fashion we've never seen before.
Similar to the Steelers, nothing the Broncos are doing is flashy. They repeatedly run the ball, control the clock, and pick timely turnovers on defense. Their four most recent conquests have all come against teams with winning records. Can they make it five with a trip to Houston?
The Texans were about six inches from forcing overtime against Jacksonville. A last-second, 58-yard field goal attempt by Matt Ammendola bounced off the crossbar and ricocheted away from the posts. The Houston defense allowed four catches of over 40 yards and Trevor Lawrence nearly matched his career-high in passing yardage. Otherwise, C.J. Stroud made incredible plays once again and the run defense shut down Travis Etienne Jr.
That hasn't been the offensive game of Denver thus far. They'll rely on Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine and call on Russell Wilson when he's needed. He'll need to throw more often if they hope to escape Houston victorious.
2 - Indianapolis at Tennessee
This pick is far more about the Titans than the Colts. Indianapolis is the definition of an average football team. They score well (top ten in points per game) but also allow a lot of points (24.4, sixth-worst in the NFL). That can win or lose you any game on the schedule, as evidenced by a victory over Baltimore and a loss to New Orleans.
Tennessee, on the other hand, can't score. Under Will Levis, they've topped 20 points just once. Three of the four games that they didn't were on the road, which is a difficult spot for any rookie quarterback. Even at home in Week 12, the Titans tallied just 264 yards, went 2-for-11 on third-down conversions, and had fewer first downs than a team that just fired their coach.
That was posted at halftime. The Titans still only scored 17 points. With their playoff hopes on the line, the Colts need this winnable, divisional road victory.
1 - San Francisco at Philadelphia
Philadelphia's midseason gauntlet continues as they host the second-best team (by record) in the NFC on Sunday afternoon. In the last three weeks, they've defeated the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. There are still doubters, as the three victories came by half of a shoe, a dropped long bomb, and miscommunication in the end zone.
That's likely why oddsmakers in Las Vegas prefer the 49ers, on the road, in this matchup. Since dropping three games and looking like a shell of the team that started the season with five straight wins, the Niners have returned to form, blowing out Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Seattle. The Eagles' shaky pass defense will have problems ending plays after the ball gets into the hands of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
It's difficult to run through that many close contests in a row and come out victorious every time. Yes, that's why the Eagles are considered one of the best teams in the league. But something will give at some point, and it could be this week.
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