NFL Preseason Betting Picks - Player Prop Bets, Team Win Totals, NFL Team Futures

August 6, 2023

Thunder Dan palyo gives you his betting picks for futures bets on the 2023 NFL season. These picks include Team Win Total, Player Props, and other season-long bets.

NFL training camps started up this week and so begins the anticipation of every NFL fan who can't wait to see their favorite team back out on the field playing meaningful football in September. The NFL has truly turned into a year-round sport for fans and fantasy analysts alike and so it's really never too early to look at some NFL futures bets. In fact, you could argue it's even pretty late considering a lot of these lines have been set for months already!

To steal a phrase from my buddy Casey Wilson, who does a lot of MLB betting content for us at RotoBaller, "Betting on player performance is more volatile than betting team futures. Not only does the player have to live up to expectations, but he must stay healthy for the entire season." So while it's a lot of fun to place wagers on player awards or milestones, it's a lot riskier than just betting on team results.

So my goal in this article is to give you mainly team-focused futures picks. Though I will toss in a few individual props, too, just for fun. As a reminder, bet responsibly and remember that you're committing any bankroll you bet on these bets for many months, so don't bet beyond your limits and save some bankroll for betting on individual games and player performances throughout the season.

Team Win Totals - NFL Futures Betting Picks

Here's a fun wrinkle for my picks in this piece. I did some crowdsourcing on Twitter a few days ago just to see where the public was on some of these totals. I didn't change any of my picks to line up with the public, but I thought I would share the results here to see where I disagree with the public or where the public is going against the sportsbooks, too.

I also want to mention that I had prepared to write about the Colts going over their win total of 6.5 games this season, but that was BEFORE the Jonathan Taylor sage ensued. So for now, I will just fade that team as it remains to be seen what will happen with Taylor and the Colts this season.

Vikings OVER 8.5 wins (-110 DraftKings)

So it appears the public is with me on this one, though I will admit the sample size on these polls is awfully small other than the Panthers tweet which had 100 votes (perhaps I should have left the poll open longer or done individual tweets).

Believe it or not, the odds are moving against us here as I bet this total a few weeks ago as high as -130. I'm not sure I understand why people think the Vikings are in danger of having a losing season after winning 13 games last year. I understand that they got pummeled a few times by the Eagles and Cowboys and that they had to pull out close wins against inferior teams like when they came back from down a million points to the Colts. But this team had a signature win against Buffalo and finished 4-2 in their division.

I understand that the Lions and Bears are going to be better, but Green Bay will be arguably worse. And I am not convinced the Vikings are in a total rebuild here either. It feels more like a retooling with exciting rookie Jordan Addison replacing a boring Adam Thielen in the receiving corps and Alexander Mattison stepping up into the void left by the departure of Dalvin Cook on offense.

The defense will likely be below average again, but this offense should put up points and win some shootouts. I don't think they win 13 games, but 9-10 wins, and even another NFC North title or a Wild Card berth seems very doable to me. The NFC North plays the lowly NFC South so there are four winnable games right there. If they beat the Packers twice and split with the Lions and Bears, now we are already at eight wins.

Panthers UNDER 7.5 wins (+100 DraftKings)

So here's a situation where I am on the same side as the public, but the books are inviting us to bet on the under with even money. That means they either want to invite that action or there is some sharp money on the over. Smart money isn't always that smart and I'm fine with being on the under here as I want at least a few of my picks to be plus money.

Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in this league and while Bryce Young might be a really good QB at some point, I don't think it's going to happen immediately. Especially when you look at the offensive weapons he has been given. Miles Sanders is a fine back, but defenses are going to load up against the run at some point and force Young to beat them. His top receiving options are a slow, past-his-prime, possession receiver - Adam Thielen, DJ Chark (already on his third team in five years), and Hayden Hurst at tight end.

Sure, the division is up for grabs but Atlanta will be improved, and the Saints are likely going to be better in 2023, too. Their schedule has Dallas, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Miami on it as well as improved teams in Chicago and Detroit. I have this team winning 5-6 games this year and finishing third in their division behind Atlanta and New Orleans.

Jaguars OVER 9.5 wins (-140 DraftKings)

Everyone is on the Jags this year and I suppose I can't help but jump on the bandwagon, too. I will save some more of my analysis for the player prop section later because (spoiler alert) I am pretty high on Trevor Lawrence taking another big step forward this year and his pass-catching options.

But as far as winning ten games goes, it's definitely not something that is easy to do for any team in the NFL, even the most talented teams. And we should acknowledge that this team only won nine games last season. But it's really how they finished the year that has everyone drooling over their potential as they won five in a row down the stretch including a big win over Dallas and two wins against Tennessee that ended up winning them the division.

They're the favorite to win the division again this year and it's pretty easy to see why as their offense is absolutely loaded with talent and they're going up against a rookie QB in Indianapolis, Ryan Tannehill (playing for his job weekly) in Tennessee, and another rookie C.J. Stroud in Houston.

Giants OVER 7.5 wins (+100 DraftKings)

So a narrower margin here, but I agree with the majority here on the Giants winning eight games and we have our second +100 odds as the majority of bettors are less confident than I am I guess.

This Giants team showed some real moxy last season and managed to make the playoffs AND win a road playoff game in round one against Minnesota without many offensive weapons besides Saquon Barkley.

Daniel Jones to Saquon Barkley pic.twitter.com/xt4VZZQMaE

— The Giant Take Podcast (@TheGiantTakePod) July 31, 2023

Now that Barkley has signed and is ready to roll for this season, I feel much better about New York's chances of a winning record. Yes, the division will be a bloodbath, but the addition of Darren Waller at tight end is really going to give Daniel Jones another playmaker on offense. The offensive line should be a strength for this team and I expect them to run the ball effectively, setting up Jones to do his thing. His receiving corps is still average at best outside Waller, but Jones showed last year that he can really make plays and keep this offense moving down the field. A 7.5 win total feels disrespectful for Brian Daboll's team after what they accomplished last year and there's no reason to think they can't be that good or better this season.

Steelers OVER 8.5 wins (-140 DraftKings)

It seems the public is torn on this one and maybe I have a larger following among Steeler fans than another analyst.

But I can promise you two things about this pick. For one, I am a Steelers fan, yes, but I am not the overconfident kind who believes their team will be good just because they usually are. In fact, I was prepared for the worst last season and I thought it was truly going to be like a 4-5 win year. I am also not someone who worships at the altar of Mike Tomlin. A lot of people around the league think he's one of the best coaches in the game and I am of the opinion that he's just pretty good. And that's saying something because, for a long time, I think thought he was average or even below average.

So this is not a "Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season" prediction. I watched every Steeler game last year and that team took its lumps early. But something happened midseason that was pretty special, and perhaps Tomlin deserves a lot of credit for it. They really started playing a different style of football and being more physical than their opponents. For the last part of the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers had transitioned into a pass-heavy, dink-and-dunk offense and their defense had become a liability.

Some might argue that the defense still has a challenge this season, but a healthy Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt make a huge difference and I think they could be a top-12 defense and keep this team in games. The offense is most likely going to take some steps forward and perhaps I am a bigger believer in Kenny Pickett than most, but he shouldn't have to go out and sling it 50+ times to win games. If Pittsburgh can run the ball behind an improved offensive line, they are going to be in a lot of games this year. And they've shown they can win those games in the past with good defense, timely offense, and special teams.

The schedule this year has very winnable games against the Raiders, Texans, Rams, Titans, Packers, Cardinals, and Colts - I think they'll be favored in all seven of those games. They can split with the Browns in their division and pick up one more win somewhere.

Commanders UNDER 6.5 wins (-120 DraftKings)

It looks like my Twitter followers share my pessimism when it comes to Washington's success this season.

I really feel for Washington fans. It's a pretty loyal and intense fanbase and they get nothing but disrespected by their favorite football franchise. Dan Synder is finally out and perhaps the franchise can start taking some steps forward, but based on this roster it could be a long season in the meantime. I'm not sure how many people believe that Sam Howell is going to be a starting quarterback in the NFL beyond this season, but I am not one of them. Terry McLaurin is a fantastic player, but we saw last year that he can't really do much when he doesn't have a QB who can get him the ball.

Washington didn't add any other major pieces on offense and will continue to try to lean on plodder Brian Robinson and scat-back Antonio Gibson in the run game.

The Commanders' defense kept them in plenty of games last year. Their biggest win came against the Eagles in November and they were gifted a win at the end of the season by Dallas in Week 17 as Dallas sat their starters. They beat Jacksonville in Week 1 before the Jags had really hit their stride and the rest of their wins came against teams with losing records.

It's hard to envision them winning more than 1-2 games in a stacked NFC East and I just don't see this team having enough offense to compete with most teams in the league on a weekly basis.

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Team Futures - NFL Betting Picks

Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC (+250 DraftKings)

Yes, I live in Pennsylvania but I promise this is an unbiased analysis. The Eagles were the best team in the NFL last season and they simply got outcoached by a legend (Andy Reid) and outplayed by another legend-in-the-making (Patrick Mahomes) in the second half of the Super Bowl. I have the utmost respect for the Chiefs, but they pulled that one out of their (you know where) as the Eagles had them on the ropes early and a fluky fumble from Jalen Hurts allowed them back into the game before the half.

From all accounts, Jalen Hurts lit it up at practice today.

He will take another leap as a passer in year 4. pic.twitter.com/CWNwWNxsx5

— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) July 30, 2023

This Eagles team has arguably improved across the board. Hurts is going to be even better at throwing the ball this season and has weapons everywhere. The Birds replaced Miles Sanders with the hard-running Rashaad Penny while also landing the versatile D'Andre Swift as the perfect complement in the running game and to use as a pass-catcher. Oh, and the defense should be good again, too. The Eagles are the class of the NFC with the Niners being the only team that is really in the same neighborhood as far as talent on both sides of the ball. I think the Birds are heading back to the Super Bowl this year.

Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South Division (+215 DraftKings)

The Saints are the favorite on DK to win this division, so let's roll with the Falcons instead at better odds. Atlanta is definitely getting some buzz this preseason, especially after drafting one of the most exciting players in the NCAA last season - Bijan Robinson.

These Falcons overachieved last season and while it drove fantasy football managers mad that coach Arthur Smith insisted on running the football and not airing it out, it was a recipe for success as it kept Atlanta in games and kept their defense (their biggest weakness) off the field.

Now we get to see what Desmond Ridder can do with a full season as a starter. Having Robinson as a versatile back who is a threat in the passing game is going to be a huge help to him and should help free up his talented young receivers Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Mack Hollins was a solid addition at WR2 who is often underrated and Tyler Allgeier had an impressive rookie season and should be a nice compliment to Robinson in the run game.

The defense needs to improve this year, but it's not hard to see Atlanta rising to the top of this division with the talent they have on offense. It may only take 8-9 wins to win the division crown (like last year) and my money is on the Falcons to get it done.

Season Long Player Props - NFL Betting Picks

Trevor Lawrence OVER 4050.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings)

Let's jump on the Jaguars bandwagon one more time for some player props, shall we? Lawrence took a major leap in year two of his career making big improvements in nearly every statistical category. He doubled his number of passing touchdowns while cutting his interceptions in half. He also threw for 500 more yards on 18 FEWER attempts than in his rookie season, upping his completion percentage from 59.6% to 66.3%.

Trevor Lawrence ➡️ Calvin Ridley pic.twitter.com/Bmq6ATo7SS

— Brett James (@thebrettjames1) July 29, 2023

He's got the band back together this year with the addition of another really good receiver, Calvin Ridley, who is going to stretch the field and allow Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to operate underneath the coverage. Evan Engram is coming off a career year and is an incredibly versatile tight end, too. Simply said, Lawrence has weapons everywhere and should be even more comfortable and confident in Doug Pederson's system this year.

Lawrence is going to face some really soft secondaries in divisional play this year as the Colts, Texans, and Titans were all pretty bad against the pass last year. Lawrence needs to average 238 yards over 17 games to get this total and that's a number I would be happy to bet on him almost every week this season. So as long as he stays healthy (a big if with season-long props of course), I think we see him cruise over this number and set another career high in passing yards this season.

Calvin Ridley OVER 900.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings)

If I am that bullish on Lawrence, then I have to give his receivers and long look at their prop totals, too. Ridley is the guy that stands out to me as his number is only this low because of the questions that surround his return to NFL football. He missed most of the 2021 season due to injury and all of last year due to the suspension for gambling.

But reports out of camp are that Ridley looks phenomenal. He's in great shape and showing a strong rapport with Lawrence already. I have nothing against Kirk or Jones, but Ridley gives them something a bit different than either in his size, speed, and playmaking ability.

Lawrence is going to spread the ball around to all three wideouts and tight end Evan Engram, but I think Ridley ends up emerging as the top option. He averaged 68 yards per game over his first 3.5 years in the league while in Atlanta and needs just 53 yards per game over 17 games this season to eclipse his total.

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