Fantasy Football Value Fallers - NFL Free Agents Whose Value Will Decrease

Andersen looks at a handful of NFL free agents who continue to see their value decrease as we head into the 2022 NFL regular season. Do they still have any fantasy football value?

With every passing day, NFL teams' rosters begin to take shape. Cuts are made, trades are consummated, and free agents are signed. Regardless of whether a team is contending or rebuilding, they are looking for impact players available on the open market.

However, once 53-man rosters are finalized this coming Tuesday, each free agent will lose some value, becoming mere injury fill-ins rather than impactful season-long depth pieces.

Let's explore five free agents who have been unable to sign contracts so far and will thus see their fantasy value decrease going forward.

Kenyan Drake, Running Back

UPDATE: On Tuesday, August 30th, it was announced that Kenyan Drake is expected to sign with the Baltimore Ravens.

Drake spent 2021 as the backup to Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas. He was coming off three consecutive top-16 fantasy finishes and drew hype as someone who could offer RB3 upside thanks to his talent as both a runner and receiver in the Raiders' offense.

Perhaps he had no greater fan than Jon Gruden, the Raiders head coach at the time, who hinted at using Drake out of the backfield and in the slot. When all was said and done, Drake appeared in 12 games and made two starts in the process, totaling 254 rushing yards, 291 receiving yards, and just three total touchdowns.

When the Raiders broke for training camp this summer, it was clear that Drake was competing for a roster spot. Veteran starter Josh Jacobs and rookie Zamir White were both locks to make the roster, as was Brandon Bolden, who is well-regarded by new head coach Josh McDaniels after their time together in New England.

That left Drake and Ameer Abdullah in competition for one final depth role. Abdullah looked better this summer, is cheaper, and has a connection to the new coaching regime, which signed him in free agency. On the other hand, Drake is a product of the Gruden-Mike Mayock regime. Thus, his release came as no surprise.

Once the dust settles on cutdown day, Drake might be able to find a new job as a No. 3 piece in a non-flashy situation. He could also wait until an injury occurs, giving him the opportunity to register some meaningful touches in a new system. However, even if a team loses its top running back, Drake won't find a starting job. At best, he'd fill in as the backup option, rotating in primarily on passing downs.

He could have some low-end fantasy appeal if he joins a team that loses its starter long-term, but at the same time, with each passing day, Drake gets older while rostered running backs gain more reps and experience. An extended stay in free agency equates to decreased fantasy value for the 28-year-old.

Cole Beasley, Wide Receiver

For the longest time, Beasley has boasted solid consistency, giving managers a reliable veteran option on their bench. After all, Beasley has been a top-52 fantasy receiver in six of his last seven seasons. Most recently, the steady slot receiver out of SMU spent three seasons with the Buffalo Bills. In 2021, he caught 82 passes for 693 yards and one touchdown. He was the Bills' No. 2 receiver at times, but he also faced stiff competition from veteran Emmanuel Sanders and up-and-comer Gabe Davis.

Beasley's contract expired this past offseason and he has yet to find a new home. Most recently, speculation surfaced that he could return to the Dallas Cowboys in the wake of Amari Cooper's departure and injuries to Michael Gallup (ACL) and James Washington (foot). However, nothing came to fruition and the Beasley rumors have since remained dormant.

In order for Beasley to sign a contract, he would likely need to be promised a slot role that comes with meaningful snaps. That opportunity doesn't currently exist, so he'll wait for an injury.

By then, teams could pivot to signing Odell Beckham Jr. (ACL) if he's healthy enough. Will Fuller's career has been hindered by injuries, but he too could be pursued over Beasley. Everything needs to fall into place for Beasley to get another opportunity, and even then, there's no guarantee that he makes a legitimate fantasy impact in his new system.

Latavius Murray, Running Back

Murray was one of the many running backs who found themselves involved in the Baltimore Ravens' backfield after the team lost J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill to season-ending injuries. The team essentially needed to build a whole new backfield and Murray received another chance. He made 14 appearances (six starts), rushing for 501 yards. He added a career-low 75 receiving yards along the way.

Now 32-years-old, Murray's age is an indication of the value he has offered throughout his career. He continues to sign contracts because he has proven himself deserving of opportunities, but his days of being fantasy relevant are over, especially as his involvement as a receiver creeps towards nothingness.

Murray will likely be one of the first veterans signed when teams are plagued by injuries in 2022. After all, he was a strong backup in Minnesota and New Orleans before proving that he was serviceable as recently as last season with the Ravens. However, his odds of becoming a starter are slim to none, and he'd primarily be used on rushing downs. As a depth piece with no pass-catching allure, Murray would have almost no fantasy relevance.

Jared Cook, Tight End

Cook headlines a crop of veteran free agent tight ends that also includes the likes of Jimmy Graham and Eric Ebron. Tall, physical, and experienced players, these three tight ends could give contenders some assistance in the red zone down the stretch. Just last year, Cook caught 49 passes for 564 yards and four touchdowns en route to finishing as the TE18.

Although Cook was solid, his production came as a starter who built a connection with his quarterback, Justin Herbert, throughout training camp and the entire season. The odds of Cook signing a new deal midseason, quickly building a rapport with his quarterback, and providing fantasy-relevant numbers? Slim.

In the world of fantasy football where most tight ends outside of the top-18 or so are not rostered, Cook is unlikely to return to fantasy relevance. Day by day, his value continues to dwindle.

David Johnson, Running Back

It remains comical to look at the career trajectory of Johnson, who finished as the RB8 in 2015, RB1 in 2016, and RB9 in 2018 before essentially falling off the face of the earth. Injuries hurt his production, but it was the trade to the woeful Houston Texans that truly stripped him of his fantasy relevance. Johnson produced RB21 numbers during his first season with Houston, then fell all the way to RB61 last year.

Johnson hit free agency this offseason and has gone widely forgotten. Like most veterans on the open market, he'll presumably wait for an injury before signing a contract. This could take a while, especially if players like Drake, Murray, and Devonta Freeman are signed before him.

Even if Johnson does sign with a team, his upside is capped due to unfavorable injury history, meaning he likely won't see double-digit touches in a game too often. On the other hand, Johnson does have more pass-catching allure than someone like Murray, so perhaps his PPR value would be slightly higher. Still, there's a long list of backs preferred over Johnson and any opportunity he receives wouldn't equate to a favorable fantasy outlook.

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