Wide Receiver ADP Risers and Fallers for Fantasy Football - NFL Free Agency Check

April 1, 2022

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of multiple wide receivers following the first weeks of 2022 Free Agency action and their fantasy football value heading into draft season.

I am going to start this column by reviewing the concept of ADP, which you are likely familiar with. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the average value of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

It's been a few weeks since the free agency opened its doors and we're still a few weeks away from the NFL draft, so I figured it'd make sense to look at how ADPs have varied during the last few days as we start to gear up for the real-life draft and our very own fantasy draft season. In this series and throughout all of the offseason, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Let's get it going!

Wide Receivers - ADP Risers

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Kansas City Chiefs

If you look at the chart above, you can easily spot the two turning points in JSS's ADP rise through the past couple of weeks. The first one happened right after JuJu signed with KC back on Mar. 18, and the second one right after the minute WR1 Tyreek Hill got traded to Miami back on Mar. 23. Getting signed by the Chiefs to play under QB Pat Mahomes was already a glorious development, but what happened to kick off the last week of March just put the cherry on top of JuJu's upside for 2022 fantasy leagues. Now, you might or might not like the wideout a lot, but the truth is that JuJu has only been stopped--when he has--by injuries, otherwise performing to phenomenal levels since he entered the league back in 2017. JuJu is coming off his worst and least-available season (five games, 7 FPPG in PPR leagues), but he had to endure a now-retired Ben Roethlisberger tossing him the ball and could only do so in five appearances. JSS's last full-time year (2020) saw him reach 234 PPR (14.6 FPPG) and finish as a top-16 WR. As the clear-cut WR1 in KC as of this writing, it makes all of the sense to draft him high this summer. Don't hesitate and pay that still-low ADP.

Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles Rams

There is this narrative about A-Rob having played for bad quarterbacks throughout his eight-year career. I mean, that's not wrong, but it's not something I buy 100% because he's played for top-24 fantasy QBs in his first six years in the NFL and only for middling ones in the past two, and that includes a couple of top-8 seasons by Blake Bortles and two more top-15 years one-each by Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky. The moment of truth has arrived for Robinson, who supposedly should excel getting thrown the ball by Matthew Stafford. We'll see. The ADP rise is obvious and understandable as LAR is moving on from Robert Woods and maybe Odell Beckham too. So it's Kupp as the WR1, Robinson as the WR2 these days. It's more than probable that A-Rob bounces back and recovers some of his value next year, but coming off an injury-riddled season in which he only had two games (barely) above 10 PPR points, I wouldn't advise chasing him if that ADP keeps getting higher and higher.

Jerry Jeudy - Denver Broncos

Wild fluctuations in Jeudy's ADP values of late, but overall a 19-pick bump up in the past three weeks have JJ getting drafted around the 60th-overall position these days. Last year, as a rookie, Jeudy got an ADP of WR39 and finished as WR45. This season, his second as a pro, he got drafted as the WR32 but missing 7 games entirely cut his production to just 85 PPR for a WR85 finish. More concerning, his 8.5 FPPG went down nearly 1.5 full points compared to his rookie average. Jeudy will have something he has never enjoyed before come 2022, though: a magnificent passer in QB Russell Wilson. The bump in ADP is obvious here and mostly affected by the Broncos' addition of a bonafide top-tier quarterback. Jeudy's projection gets the automatic boost, of course, but I'd watch out for what is a loaded Broncos offense with multiple viable options eating a bit from JJ's upside. That, and the potential impact of good pass-catching tailbacks in Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon (if he returns) gives me a little bit of pause when it comes to Jeudy. I'd rather get Tim Patrick/Courtland Sutton later than Jeudy at his current ADP.

Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers

Hunter Renfrow - Las Vegas Raiders

Even after posting his best campaign to date, Hunter Renfrow just can't catch a break. It took Renfrow three seasons to fully find his way toward the top of the NFL's pecking order, but he's reached it for good after posting a WR10 year in 2021 playing all 17 games averaging 15.2 FPPG manning the Raiders slot. Now, you see. Renfrow could have very well topped his prior-best ADP of 57 this summer thanks to his fantastic explosion, but that doesn't seem to be on the cards anymore after Las Vegas traded for legit WR1 Davante Adams a few weeks ago. The aftermath is clear, as Renfrow went from around the 65th overall pick to no higher than the 80th at the end of March, exactly where he was getting drafted last summer. The problem is that in drafts leading up to the 2021 fantasy season, Renfrow was coming off a top-60 campaign at the position in 2020. He's now priced the same as back then, only he proved to be a top-12 WR at the very least. Does that make any sense? Not at all. Renfrow will retain his slot-heavy role next season even with Adams in town, and while it's obvious that Davante (and Darren Waller by extension) will get tons of targets, Renfrow should still keep up most of his value for an easy WR2 finish. The more the ADP keeps tanking, the more shares I'll be getting of Renfrow.

DK Metcalf - Seattle Seahawks

Pretty much the opposite case to that of Jerry Jeudy (read his blurb above). The Seahawks are on the verge of entering full-rebuild mode. Drew Lock is their starting QB as I'm writing this on April 1, but sadly that doesn't mean that this situation is a joke. It's very real and concerning for both Metcalf and teammate Tyler Lockett entering 2022 if Seattle doesn't trade for a legit QB (Baker? Garoppolo?). Metcalf has been rock solid for his full career and even better if considering his last two seasons alone (17 and 14.4 FPPG). He's never missed a game, for real, and he's gotten 100+ targets every single season while posting up 900+ yards. The production is insane no matter how you look at it. Of course, DK had (mostly) Russell Wilson throwing him passes and Wilson finished those three years as fantasy's QB3, QB6, and QB15. Drew Lock has barely started 20 games in his three-year career... Go figure. If everything stays as it currently is, I'd be very hesitant of getting Metcalf. On the other hand, and from another POV, drafting Metcalf now could turn into a phenomenal move if he gets traded somewhere else this season and lands in a QB1-rostered team.

Elijah Moore - New York Jets

The Jets drafted Moore as soon as with the second pick in the second round of the 2021 draft. It made sense because Moore's prospect profile was extraordinary (albeit he is a little bit small, that's the truth) with him being just 21 back then and coming into the league ranking inside the 70th percentile or higher in speed-related combine metrics. His comps were also great (the likes of Thielen, Cooks, McLaurin and DJ Moore just to name a few). But injuries cut his season short and left him playing just 11 games for the Jets, and even though it sounds ridiculous as hell... Moore still found a way to finish as the NYJ WR1 last year with 138.2 PPR points to WR2 Braxton Berrios' 121 (on 16 games). The drop in ADP isn't overly great at just 6 picks, so no big deal here. It wouldn't make much sense to fade Moore because the Jets have not altered the offense just one bit other than adding a couple of TEs in C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin. If (and that's a huge if) some of the WR-rumors turn out to be true (trading for DK Metcalf/Deebo/AJ Brown), then yes, Moore will get his upside murdered. Until then, though, he should be a safe pick to stay on top of every other Jet receiver in 2022.

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