NFL Divisional Round: Saturday Betting Preview

January 21, 2023

Ellis' betting breakdown for the two NFL playoff matchups this Saturday (1/21) that start the Divisional Round, the Giants vs. Eagles and Jaguars vs. Chiefs.

It’s been an electric NFL playoffs so far. In fact, this is the first playoffs in a long time where we do not have a quarterback older than 30 making the Divisional Round. The future of the NFL is bright and it all starts at the QB position.

This Saturday, we get to see three of the new faces of the NFL in Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and Jalen Hurts. In fact, I’d argue four faces and include Daniel Jones for two reasons. The first is that he absolutely balled out last weekend, and the second is because I see him being the Giants' QB for the foreseeable future.

We have two games to break down, and each has a healthy over-under with plenty of offensive weapons to discuss. In these articles, I provide an analysis of what I believe are the key matchup statistics for each team, game picks, and player prop parlays. Last weekend, I managed 50% on my player parlays; however, I only went one of six on picks against the spread and 50% on over-under calls. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Divisional Round Saturday preview. If articles aren't your jam, check out my TikTok previews @FiresideFantasy_FF.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs (4:30 PM ET)

After a week of rest, we get to see the team that is well on its way to becoming the NFL’s latest dynasty. That’s right, Mahomes and company get to stay home for their annual Divisional Round game in Arrowhead. As for the Jaguars, they are coming off one of the best comebacks in playoff history (or greatest collapses, your choice) in the Wild Card round. After being down 27 points, they managed to hold Justin Herbert and the Chargers to three points in the second half and win the game on a last-second field goal. This should be an electric start to the weekend, with the Chiefs currently 8.5-point favorites and an over-under set at 53.

Chiefs

Another year, another playoff appearance for Mahomes. However, these playoffs will look a lot different if they do advance. Either they will have to play their first conference championship over the last five years not at home, or they have to face the only team that can call themselves Mahomes’ kryptonite, the Bengals. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves, as they first need to make it past the veteran coaching of Doug Pederson and a firey young team led by Trevor Lawrence.

As the line projects, it’s hard seeing the Chiefs having too many struggles in this game. The Jaguars allow the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game and the fifth-most passing yards per game. Neither of these rankings should scare Mahomes, who averaged the most points and passing yards per game on the season.

Mahomes' weapon of choice will most likely be the Travis Kelce special this Saturday afternoon, as he is coming off arguably the best season of his career. This season, he managed over 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns, which is remarkable. On top of this, the Jaguars allowed the fifth-most yards to the TE position over the season.

It is slightly concerning that the Jaguars' defense has seemed to turn a corner over the last few weeks; however, pick your poison between Kelce, Jerick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or even Noah Gray as they have found success all season. As for Isiah Pacheco and the ground game, the Jaguars are allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Either way, I think we can all say confidently that Tyreek Hill won’t be missed as he watches this game from his futon in Miami.

Jaguars

I want to apologize to all Jaguar fans who just read my Chiefs breakdown. It’s hard not to get excited about the Chiefs in this matchup. However, let’s give some props to this Jaguars team. Finally, Trevor Lawrence looks like the star we had anticipated for the last four years. We also owe the front office an apology after criticizing their spending habits at the skill positions last offseason. There’s no denying it, this rag-tag group of lads has been great all season.

It’s ironic that two players drafted in the first round by the Giants are having their best season since their rookie campaign. Of course, one of these players is Saquon Barkley (who I’ll discuss in a bit) but the other is Evan Engram. Engram has been a gem for this offense down the stretch and has made plays all over the place for Lawrence. After all, you don’t randomly fall into nearly 800 yards and four TDs at the TE position. 

Outside of Engram, we have seen the emergence of Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne, as well as the pleasant surprise of Zay Jones. That’s right, after being left for dead by the football community, the early second-round Bills draft pick has exploded onto the scene in Jacksonville. Jones finished the season 14th in receptions (82) and totaled over 800 yards and five touchdowns. As for Kirk, he has been a steady target all season, finishing with two more receptions than his teammate (84) as well as 1100 yards and eight touchdowns.

Since trading away James Robinson, Etienne has taken complete control of this run game. Unfortunately, he faces a defense that allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game over the season. They might struggle on the ground, but the Chiefs’ pass defense was nothing special, sitting in the middle of the league in most metrics. I think most people project this game to be a shootout, instantly discrediting any team facing Mahomes and company. However, as I’ve outlined, this offense is no joke. I have my doubts that they’ll keep up with Mahomes, but maybe this team has one more surprise up their sleeve this season.

Ellis’ Picks (JAX vs. KC)

Chiefs -8.5, Over 53.0

As I alluded to at the end of the Jacksonville preview, it’s hard to see this team keeping up with the Chiefs' offense. Plus, home-field advantage is no joke when it comes to Arrowhead. I have no doubt that Lawrence will be able to tune out the noise and piece together a clean game; however, winning the game is another challenge. As much as I’m tempted to take the plus points, I have a feeling this game might turn ugly right out of the gate. Give me the Chiefs on the spread and the hearty over.

Player Prop Parlays (JAX vs. KC)

Trevor Lawrence Over 249.5 passing yards

Zay Jones Over 54.5 receiving yards

Zay Jones Anytime TD

Travis Etienne Under 67.5 rushing yards

+1000

Travis Kelce Over 80.5 receiving yards

Travis Kelce Anytime TD

Isaiah Pacheco Under 55.5 rushing yards

KC first to 20 points

+650

Giants vs. Eagles (8:15 PM ET)

We have a rare divisional matchup in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Giants took care of business last week and finally answered the season-long question of the Vikings' legitimacy. Say what you will about the Vikings and their abysmal defense, but this Giants team looked excellent. They now face an Eagles team that started the season soaring and only slowed down once Gardner Minshew took over. Thankfully, we have Jalen Hurts fully healthy for this game, as the Eagles are 7.5-point favorites and host a decent 48.5 over-under.

Giants

Danny Dimes had a career day last weekend. Sure, he played against the team that allowed the second-most yards per game over the season, but he also became the first QB to throw for 300+ yards, two touchdowns, and rush for 70+ yards in a playoff game. It was his 17 rushing attempts that really stood out, as his complementary rushing to Saquon Barkley will have haunted the Vikings’ nightmares all week. 

It wouldn’t be a surprise if these two also haunt Eagles fans next week as the Eagles were 16th in rushing yards allowed per game. In fact, the Eagles allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game to the QB position. That will be key for this Giants team as this Eagles defense also allowed the fewest passing yards per game over the season and led the league in interceptions.

Thankfully, the combination of Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Daniel Bellinger, and Richie James was never the strength of this team. As for the Giants’ defense, not much stands out. I’ll say what I said last week, if this team can establish a dynamic rushing attack between Jones and Barkley and also not turn the ball over, they might just do what they have done all season: win games.

Eagles

This team has been awesome all season. With Hurts under center, this team hasn’t missed a beat. Their dynamic offense is ninth in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game. On top of this, their main rushers Hurts and Miles Sanders combined for 24 rushing touchdowns, and the entire team led the league in rushing touchdowns with 32 on the season. 

The elite rushing offense of the Eagles faces a Giants team that allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game and the fourth-most rushing yards to the RB position. As for their receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have proven to be a dynamic one-two punch that can test even the best of defenses. It’s clear this Giants team is not one of the best defenses, as they are middle-of-the-pack against the WR position and allow the 17th-most passing yards per game.

As for their defense, C.J. Gardner-Johnson tied for the league lead in interceptions despite being injured for some of the season, and the team averaged the most interceptions per game on the season (1.1). The Eagles are clearly the better team all around, and it showed in the two previous matchups between these teams. This should be the Eagles’ game to lose, even though this Giants team continues to defy statistics.

Ellis' Picks (NYG vs. PHI)

Giants +8, Under 48.5

I love divisional games in the playoffs. Look at the Bengals and Bills last weekend, who both nearly fell to backup QBs. Having said that, we also saw the 49ers toy with the Seachickens. Truly anything can happen in these games. However, with two Coach of the Year favorites showing up in this game, a blowout seems unlikely. Although I think the Eagles will pull off the win, I’ll take over a touchdown lean in almost any divisional matchup. 

As for the over-under, I have no doubt these offenses each possess the ability to turn on the jets. However, I really think this will be a run-dominant game. The strength of the Giants is their interior line, which opens up outside runs and play-action passes from Hurts. As for the Giants, their run game is essential to their success, and the Eagles haven’t fared well against rushing QBs. In the end, I think this will be a quick game, dominated by the defense and the ground game. Give me the Under 48.5 for this one.

Player Prop Parlays (NYG vs. PHI)

Daniel Jones Over 45.5 rushing yards

Saquon Barkley Over 98.5 total yards

Saquon Barkley Anytime TD

+425

Miles Sanders Anytime TD

Jalen Hurts Under 246.5 passing yards

A.J. Brown Over 49.5 receiving yards

+550

Thanks for checking out my work. Catch me here tomorrow for my preview of the Sunday games.

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