RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his daily fantasy Power Pivot contrarian selections for Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season, featuring low-ownership-percentage players who can help your NFL DFS lineups for DraftKings GPP tournaments.
Welcome back RotoBallers! I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. We're going to dive right into Week 12 and I hope you enjoy this edition of Power Pivots as you fight through your food hangover. Similar to Week 11, there's not a lot of games on the slate that scream "ATTACK" to me, although I'm always interested when Tampa Bay is on the schedule. Their matchup with San Fran has the highest Over/Under on the board at 55 points. The only other game with an Over/Under of 50 points is the up-and-coming Colts taking on the fading Dolphins.
Those of you that read last week's article are aware that my Wide Receiver curse continued, as Alshon Jeffery dudded out for us. We did have excellent results from Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Reed, with Pittsburgh giving us a solid performance at the DEF/ST position. My goal each week is to nail EVERY SINGLE PLAYER for you guys and I'm ready to get to work on Week 12. Thanks for joining me, let's go make some money!
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 12 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Jameis Winston ($6,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13%
POWER PIVOT: Baker Mayfield ($5,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 5%
I'm getting off the Tampa Bay quarterback carousel this week. I've had both tremendous successes and ugly failures courtesy of the Bucs QB spot and I'm tired of the swings. So, while Jameis Winston is tempting at $6k, I'll be scrolling down to someone that offers less ceiling, but a little more stability.
I've been continually impressed by Cleveland's Baker Mayfield during his rookie campaign for what has been the worst team in the NFL for years. I think the Browns have finally found their long-awaited for "Franchise Quarterback" in Mayfield. We haven't seen huge fantasy numbers from Mayfield, but he has been rock solid in the two starts he's made since Hue Jackson's firing. Mayfield was incredibly efficient in his last game, racking up 22.6 DraftKings points on just 20 pass attempts against the Atlanta Falcons. He will be semi-squaring off against his old coach this week, when the Browns travel to Cincinnati to take on a Bengals squad that is so desperate they brought Hue Jackson in to help out.
The Bengals mercifully fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin a couple of weeks ago. To say this Cincy defense is bad would be a huge understatement. The Bengals are dead last in the NFL in Total Yards, Rushing Yards, and Third Down Percentage. I'm not done yet...they are also 31st in the league in Passing Yards and Points allowed (a massive 31.2 points per game)! This Bengals defense is...not great.
We should be encouraged, not scared away, by Mayfield's Week 10 outing against Atlanta. The 20 pass attempts were an outlier and I fully expect him to be back up around his season average of 35 pass attempts this week against a Cincy team that creates a shootout environment on a weekly basis.
SATURDAY UPDATE: This is shaping up to be a week to save money at QB, as there are tons of solid options below $6k. It feels like a "pick the value QB you like best" spot. Not many injury notes at QB, but the few we have are fairly significant. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been ruled out, meaning rookie QB Lamar Jackson ($5,700) will draw his second consecutive start for Baltimore. Jackson received a $1k salary bump this week, but brings a really nice floor to the table thanks to his rushing ability. Tom Brady ($6,500) has surprisingly popped up as questionable, but is expected to play. His status is something worth keeping an eye on.
RB CHALK: Melvin Gordon ($8,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 37%
POWER PIVOT: Marlon Mack ($5,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 12%
I've had a lot of success paying up at the RB position lately. There are definitely some high-priced guys that I'm interested in this week, but there is one value play that catches my eye. Indianapolis RB Marlon Mack has struggled to stay on the field this season, but when he's been healthy he has flashed tremendous talent and upside. He racked up back-to-back games of over 30 DraftKings points in Weeks 7 and 8, with almost 300 total yards and four TDs. Mack has been rather quiet since the Colts bye week. In the ever-changing environment of DFS, it's easy to forget about a player when they have a couple of quiet games, but Mack is in a tremendous bounce-back spot this week against a struggling Miami Dolphins defense.
The Dolphins have hemorrhaged points to opposing RBs in 2018. Miami is allowing a MASSIVE average of 31 DraftKings points per game to RBs, the fourth-highest in the league. They are also near the bottom of the NFL in yards allowed per rush, ranking 27th. Indy is at home in this one and Vegas has them listed as a 7.5 point favorite with a projected team point total of nearly 30. All the signs point to a game script that sets up perfectly for Mack to succeed against this Dolphins defense that has allowed 9 TDs and over 1,200 yards rushing to opposing RBs on the year.
Mack's $5,500 salary is his lowest price tag in nearly a month and makes him an affordable option with excellent upside. Mack has carry totals of 12 and 16 over his last two games against tough run defenses. If the Colts find early success with the run against Miami (I believe they will), I wouldn't be at all surprised if Mack gets up to around 20 touches in this game. His floor is a little concerning, but at $5,500 we must be willing to take on some risk. Mack's combination of explosive upside, matchup, and probable game script makes him an excellent GPP option.
SATURDAY UPDATE: The more I dive into Marlon Mack, the more I like him. I will be heavy on the Indy RB in this matchup. Melvin Gordon's status has been cast in doubt, as he is considered questionable. In a game the Chargers should win easily, it's not a leap to think his carries could be scaled back even if he is active. Another Baltimore note...RB Alex Collins ($4,500) is listed as questionable despite practicing in full on Friday. His status brings more question marks to a backfield situation in Baltimore that has been in flux throughout the year. Undrafted Free Agent Gus Edwards ($4,400) was the lead dog in the Ravens backfield last week when he rushed for 115 yards and a TD on 17 carries. He is drawing tons of DFS interest this week, as it feels like he and Lamar Jackson are sort of a "package deal". Edwards is intriguing, but the Baltimore RB situation is sort of like trying to predict the weather. I love Cleveland RB Nick Chubb's matchup this week. At $6.3k he should see 20-plus touches against a horrible Cincy defense. I'm always interested in targeting the Tampa Bay defense and San Fran RB Matt Breida ($5,700) has had a bye week to get healthy.
WR CHALK: Mike Evans ($7,700)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 34%
POWER PIVOT: Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 20%
Welcome to Tampa Bay chalk week! Mike Evans leads all WRs with a massive projected-ownership of 34%. Those of you that read this column regularly know that I've missed on Evans a couple of times this year and that's honestly a very real possibility again this week. However...that's kinda the point I want to emphasize here, Evans is very unpredictable from week to week. He no doubt has tournament-winning upside, but with such a massive ownership projection we have the opportunity to gain a huge amount of leverage on the field with an Evans dud, which is not at all out of the question.
The New York Giants offense has been anything but a sure thing this season, but we have seen Odell Beckham Jr. targeted consistently under new coach Pat Shurmur. OBJ has over double-digit targets in eight of the Giants 10 games this season.
Beckham had one of his worst games of the year against Philly back in Week 6, but those of you that watched the Eagles play New Orleans last week know that this is a VERY depleted secondary we are talking about. Philly has been wrecked by injuries and is literally being forced to sign guys off the street. The Eagles two starting cornerbacks (who were filling in due to injury themselves) were both hurt last week against New Orleans and are likely to be out against New York. There's a very real possibility that the Eagles will have two undrafted free agents starting at the CB spot.
Beckham is the highest-priced WR on the slate, which might help to keep his ownership reasonable, but I'm ready to get him in GPP lineups. His combination of talent and usage bodes well in this matchup against an Eagles secondary with huge problems. It's "greenlight go" for OBJ this week!
SATURDAY UPDATE: As I mentioned in this week's intro, I have been befuddled at the WR position lately. Not much has changed in Week 12, as there are some things to like, but not a lot to love. Our highlighted play OBJ seems to be getting more popular as we near Sunday, but his matchup against a Philly secondary that is signing guys off the street is hard to ignore. The Bengals were optimistic about A.J. Green's prospects earlier in the week, but Green has now been downgraded to doubtful. His absence would once again bring Tyler Boyd ($6,000) and his new lower price into the WR conversation. Carolina's Devin Funchess is listed as doubtful and probably won't play against Seattle. This coincides with the expected return of Torrey Smith ($3,500) to the Panthers receiving corps. D.J. Moore ($4,600) has more upside than any Carolina WR, but we have learned this season that Moore is no sure thing. I'm not sure why, but Pittsburgh's JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,500) stands out to me as a play that feels really "safe" on a slate that has a lot of uncertainty at the WR position and he's a player that absolutely no one in the DFS community is talking about this week.
TE CHALK: George Kittle ($6,200)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 16%
POWER PIVOT: Cameron Brate ($3,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13%
One of the few bummers about doing this article is sometimes I really love the chalk play. That's where I find myself this week at the dubious TE position. San Fran's George Kittle is a player that draws a tremendous matchup against Tampa Bay and carries huge upside into Week 12.
If I find myself unable to fit Kittle and his position-high salary into my lineups, I will look to save salary with the TE on the other side of this matchup. Cameron Brate is only $3,600 against the Niners and with O.J. Howard out for the year, Brate should see his largest workload of the season for the Bucs.
The knock on Brate is that he only catches TDs...and that's a bad thing why? Seriously though, Brate isn't going to rack up tons of yardage, which makes him somewhat touchdown dependent. TB has tons of weapons in the receiving corps and Brate isn't usually the first look. He does have tremendous chemistry with this week's starter Jameis Winston, especially in the red zone.
Brate's cheap $3.6k salary opens up tons of other options when constructing lineups. He doesn't carry huge upside, but should see 6-8 targets, along with a couple of red zone opportunities, and offers us a chance to grab some exposure to the game with the week's highest Over/Under.
SATURDAY UPDATE: I'm personally trying to keep things simple at the dreaded TE position this week. I have my player pool narrowed down to three options...Kittle, Brate, and Philly's Zach Ertz ($6,400) and I'm leaning hard toward paying up if I can make the salary work. Ertz is in a beautiful bounce-back spot this week after letting the DFS community down by having perhaps the worst game of his life against the Saints in Week 11. There are some legit arguments for a couple of mid-range TEs...Greg Olsen ($4,400) and Evan Engram ($4,200) being the two that standout the most, but I won't be going there this week myself.
D/ST CHALK: Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13%
POWER PIVOT: Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 5%
Call me boring if you'd like, but as long as I can continue to roster the Steelers defensive unit at low ownership and a reasonable salary, I see no need to get off the wagon. Pittsburgh goes on the road to Denver, which is perhaps the biggest drawback of this play, to take on a Broncos offense that is mediocre in most offensive categories.
The Steelers have been improving on the defensive side of the ball each week. They have held opponents to less than 21 points in every game of their current six-game winning streak. Pittsburgh has been solid against the run and will get after mistake-prone Case Keenum with a pass rush that has racked up 11 sacks in their last two games.
We all know the DEF/ST position can be volatile, but I really like the way this Steelers defensive unit has played over the past month. They offer a nice floor with sack and turnover upside this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Similar to my feelings about Marlon Mack at RB, the more I dig in, the more I like the Steelers defense this week. There are definitely some other options that I really like...the Chargers ($3,400), Ravens ($3,300), and Colts ($2,900) all have tremendous matchups as home favorites. I'm totally comfortable using any of these four teams at the always volatile DEF/ST position.
