RADIO
Juan's top NFL DFS value plays for Week 7 of the 2023 season. These sleepers are cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo daily fantasy football contests.
Welcome to the Week 7 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this seventh main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Geno Smith, SEA vs. ARI | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $28
Smith put together a surprisingly rewarding fantasy performance in Week 6 despite only being able to lead the Seahawks to 13 points, as the veteran signal-caller threw for 323 yards, albeit with a pair of interceptions. Smith has come within four yards of hitting the 300-yard mark on three occasions already this season. In Week 7, he's back in the friendly home confines of Lumen Field while facing a Cardinals defense that could still be operating without at least one of its starting safety duo of Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson.
Arizona has allowed 253.7 passing yards per game over the last three contests, along with an elevated 11.7 yards per completion at home. The Cards have also given up a favorable 9:4 TD:INT to quarterbacks and even surrendered three rushing touchdowns to the position, giving Smith plenty of paths to a rewarding fantasy performance. While DK Metcalf's ribs and hip injuries do put him in danger of missing the contest, I'm still in Smith's corner as a value play if talented rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba is forced to step in for Smith's top target.
Jordan Love, GB at DEN | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,800, Yahoo: $30
Love has certainly earned his fair share of criticism for the spotty start to his tenure as Aaron Rodgers' Packers successor, but the fourth-year pro has certainly flashed some encouraging play as well. Love is completing only 55.6 percent of his throws, but he's thrown for eight touchdowns in five games while rushing for another two. Love has a pair of three-touchdown tallies on his resume as well, and he'll tangle with a Broncos defense that's had trouble against opposing air attacks on occasion and has allowed an NFL-high 14 touchdown passes going into Week 7 action.
Denver is yielding 268 passing yards per game overall, although the Broncos do admittedly have some drastic home/road splits that have seen them playing much better pass defense at Empower Field. Denver is also conceding an elevated 10.8 yards per completion, however, and a league-high 76.4 percent completion rate to boot. Moreover, Sean Payton's squad has given up an efficient 105 yards on 25 carries to quarterbacks, furthering the highly mobile Love's prospects in that regard.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Sam Howell, WAS at NYG | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $26
- Joshua Dobbs, ARI at SEA | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $24
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at NYG | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $21
There was talk this summer that Robinson looked like a markedly more explosive player than during his injury-shortened 2022 rookie season, and the second-year pro has validated that assessment at times already over the first six games. Robinson is still averaging the same 3.9 yards per carry he clocked as a rookie, but he's already matched his 2022 total of two rushing touchdowns and just added his second receiving score of the campaign in Week 6 against the Falcons.
Robinson should be in line for a high double-digit carry workload that's complemented by multiple targets in this Week 7 matchup, which comes against a Giants team that's highly unlikely to force Washington away from the run and has had plenty of trouble in rush defense. New York has surrendered an NFC-high 147.5 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry to running backs. Robinson also has 95 rush yards over expectation for the season, which ranks him sixth in that category among qualified backs, a figure partly made possible by an impressive 15.6 percent broken tackle rate.
Javonte Williams, DEN vs. GB | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
Williams looked healthy in his return from a thigh injury in the Week 6 Thursday night loss to the Chiefs, averaging a season-best 5.2 yards per carry on his 10 totes. Williams only saw 17 snaps in the contest -- making his amount of touches all the more impressive -- and with extra downtime before this favorable Week 7 matchup, he could certainly be set for a bump back to at least a 30-35-snap workload despite the encouraging play of backfield mate Jaleel McLaughlin.
The matchup also lines up in his favor at his very modest salaries, considering the Packers have surrendered 143 rushing yards per road game thus far. Green Bay has given up five rushing touchdowns to running backs and a generous 32-211 line through the air to the position as well, which bodes well for a player of Williams' pass-catching acumen.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Najee Harris, PIT at LAR | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $14
- Latavius Murray, BUF at NE | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $13
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. ARI | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $19
Lockett is typically rostered considerably less frequently than position mate DK Metcalf, but as he reminded us in Week 6 against the Bengals, he still arguably carries about as much upside. Lockett posted a season-high 94-yard tally on six catches versus Cincinnati, and although he's dealing with a hamstring injury heading into Friday's final practice of the week, he'll be a viable play at his very reasonable salaries if he does suit up (UPDATE: Lockett is now clear of an injury designation).
Metcalf's status for Sunday's game is now also in question, as noted in Smith's entry, due to his hip and rib injuries. Lockett would naturally see a bump in targets under such a scenario, and in addition to the metrics already cited in Smith's entry, the Cardinals have also given up a very elevated 74.0 percent catch rate to receivers, along with the second-most receiving yards (1,195) to receivers among teams that have played six games.
George Pickens, PIT at LAR | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $20
Pickens is seen by many as a victim of the limitations of Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada and inconsistent second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, but the gifted second-year wideout can still find a way to rise above the general malaise that often hangs of Pittsburgh's air attack on sheer talent alone. The latest evidence of such came in Week 5 against the Ravens, when Pickens posted a 6-130-1 line along with a 16-yard rush that was good for 29.6 DK/ 23.6 FD/Yahoo points.
It was Pickens' second 100-yard game of the season, and he'll now face a Rams team that's prone to giving up occasional chunk plays through the air and that could push the Steelers to remain aggressive offensively. Los Angeles is surrendering 238.7 passing yards per game at home (compared to 177.7 per road contest) and an elevated 11.4 yards per completion there as well. Pickens is also among the league leaders in yards after catch (6.6 per reception), is commanding just under 26% of the Steelers' targets and is averaging a full yard more per route run (2.35) than during his rookie season.
Marquise Brown, ARI at SEA | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $19
Brown underwhelmed some in Week 6 against the Rams in what was a tough afternoon for Joshua Dobbs and the air attack overall, but the veteran wideout is right back in play in Week 7 at what remain extremely appealing salaries for his upside. Brown still saw 11 targets in the loss, and although he only hauled in four, the volume is extremely encouraging and pushed his average number of looks per game to just under nine. With a matchup against what has been a vulnerable Seahawks secondary most weeks, Brown stands to potentially do plenty of damage with that type of volume.
Seattle is allowing 334 passing yards per game at home, along with 11.5 yards per completion there. The Seahawks have also surrendered a 68.1 percent catch rate to wideouts and the most catches (90), yards (1,024) and touchdowns (7) to the position of teams that have played just five games. Then, Brown is seeing a whopping 28.0 percent target share and 42.4 percent of the Cardinals' air yards, all while enjoying a fantasy-friendly aDOT of 12.7 yards.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Christian Watson, GB at DEN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $17
- Rashee Rice, KC vs. LAC | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $19
- Darius Slayton, NYG vs. WAS | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $12 // and/or Jalin Hyatt, NYG vs. WAS | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,700, Yahoo: $10
- DK-Yahoo Special: Drake London, ATL at TB | DK: $5,100, Yahoo: $19
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Darren Waller, NYG vs. WAS | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $15
There's still some question as to whether Waller will be catching passes from Daniel Jones (neck) or Tyrod Taylor in Week 7, but the veteran tight end should be considered for either scenario. Waller seems to be coming on in Brian Daboll's offense after a slow start, as he'll head into the game against the Commanders with a combined 13-129 line on 18 targets over the past two games. Waller recorded five of those catches and 43 of those yards with Taylor as his QB in Week 6, supporting the notion he'll be able to exploit the favorable matchup against Washington's pass defense irrespective of who's under center.
Washington is surrendering 294.7 passing yards per road game, along with an NFC-high 12.5 yards per completion in that split. The Commanders have also given up a 29-223-3 line to tight ends over six games, and Waller is commanding an impressive 27.0 percent of the Giants' air yards while also laying claim to just under 22 percent of the team's targets.
Luke Musgrave, GB at DEN | DK: $3,300, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $14
Musgrave has had the Week 6 bye to get further immersed in Matt LaFleur's playbook and build rapport with Love, and he now returns to action in a highly favorable scenario for tight ends. The rookie second-round pick matched his career high of six receptions in the Week 5 loss to the Raiders, and he's seen seven and eight targets in two of his last three contests.
Musgrave's salaries are reasonably close to the bottom at his position on all three sites, and the Broncos make for excellent targets considering they've allowed an NFL-high 454 receiving yards to tight ends, along with three touchdowns on 37 catches. Musgrave is also clocking a solid 1.42 yards per route run and is sixth among qualified tight ends with an average of 5.3 yards after the catch per reception.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Michael Mayer, LVR | DK: $2,700, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $12
- DK-Only Special: Mark Andrews, BAL vs. DET | $5,700
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