NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 15 Saturday Slate

December 19, 2020

Brian Entrekin analyzes optimal DFS cash game value plays for Week 15 Saturday slate of the NFL season. These players are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy games.

We have made it to Week 15 of the NFL season, which means we get some Saturday football. We start things off with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Denver Broncos and cap things off with the Carolina Panthers visiting the Green Bay Packers. Both games currently have major favorites, with the Bills seven-point road favorites and the Packers eight and a half point favorites at home. The game totals are nice from a fantasy perspective as both games have totals of 50 or higher.

There is some nice value when looking at the Week 15 Saturday slate. Most of the value comes at the wide receiver position, loaded, and stinks as Devante Adams and Stephon Diggs reside at that position. You can save some at running back and tight end, which does help and may lead to a fourth wide receiver in the flex position. The Packers and Bills will be the popular stacks, so getting different with those stacks with a nice one-off or two from their oppositions. Overall it is a fun two-game slate and should make for some nice builds and entertainment on Saturday.

This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's look at the cash value plays for the Week 15 Saturday slate of the 2020 NFL season.

Week 15 Quarterback Value Plays

Teddy Bridgewater, CAR at GB | DK: $5,200, FD: $7,300

Bridgewater heads into Saturday night's matchup versus the Packers as an 8.5 point underdog, which bodes well for his fantasy stats. It also appears that Christian McCaffrey will miss Saturday's game, making Bridgewater even more valuable. Over the last four games, the Panthers have thrown a lot more than normal, and that has resulted in 36 or more pass attempts in three of his last four games. He has 20 or more fantasy points in those three games. Bridgewater will be facing a Packers Defense that ranks 17 in the NFL over the last four games versus opposing quarterbacks. They allow nearly 250 passing yards, two touchdown passes, and 19 fantasy points per game over those four games. Bridgewater has shown 30+ point upside this season with a nice 20 point floor, making him a strong value play at quarterback on Saturday when almost everyone will play Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers.

Week 15 Running Back Value Plays

Melvin Gordon, DEN vs BUF | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,000

There is not a ton of trustworthy value when running back this week, but Gordon could fit the mix. He has 11 or more carries in five straight games. Phillip Lindsay has been banged up, which has allowed Gordon to take over as the main back, well, at least for the most part, as he does not carry a workhorse load. Gordon also has 16 touches in each of the last two games as he has seen a few passes go his way, resulting in double-digit fantasy production in each game. He will be facing a Bills Defense that ranks 15 over the last four games versus opposing backs, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to the running back position. Gordon is very risky as he has another injury designation this week, a weekly tradition. The Broncos are also heavy underdogs, limiting his carries, but that has been the case often for the Broncos. Regardless, Gordon brings in a lead back workload at a discount if looking for RB savings.

Zack Moss, BUF at DEN | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,700

When looking at running back savings, the Bills backfield is quite intriguing. The Moss and Devin Singletary has been a fun one back and forth, but Moss is the back we want weekly. Moss was back to 13 carries last week after a week in the coach's dog house for a fumble. The Bills were in complete control on Sunday night, resulting in Moss regaining a nice workload. That workload should be expected again on Sunday, with the Bills being a touchdown favorite versus the Broncos. A Broncos Defense that ranks 26 versus running backs over the last four weeks. They allow over 90 rushing yards, 5.5 receptions, and ar0und 25 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. Moss has the potential to break out as he did in Week 8, and his price tag is worth the risk on Saturday night.

Week 15 Wide Receiver Value Plays

Curtis Samuel, CAR at GB | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,200

What's that you say? No Christian McCaffrey this week? Fire up some Curtis Samuel value. Samuel's role in the Panthers' offense has continued to grow with CMC out, and that should be no different in Saturday's game versus the Packers as 8.5 point underdogs. Samuel has five or more targets in every game starting in Week 5 and has double-digit fantasy points in all but one of those games. He has made five receptions in three straight games and gets a few carries on the ground to pad those fantasy stats. Over his last four games, he has received 21% of the team's target share and, more importantly, a 37.5% red-zone target share. Bridgewater has an eye for Samuel with six red-zone targets over the last three games. Look for Samuel to be a popular target of Teddy B and enjoy his discounted price tag.

Cole Beasley/Gabriel Davis, BUF at DEN | DK: $4,700/$4,000, FD: $5,800/$5,400

The Bills bring some really nice wide receiver value to the Saturday slate. Since John Brown was placed on the IR, Beasley and Davis's duo, have been weekly values and have been solid options after Diggs in the receiving game. Since Week 11 (when Brown went on the IR), Beasley has a 24% target share, and Davis brings a 15% target share. It gets better for Davis in the red-zone with a near 27% red-zone target share than Beasley's 13%. Davis has seen five red-zone targets over the three games, while Beasley has seen 10 or more targets in three of the last four games. Beasley brings a stronger floor due to volume alone, while Davis brings a higher big-play ability and potential ceiling. Both should get some nice work on Saturday and bring nice value to your lineups.

Tim Patrick, DEN vs BUF | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,700

Patrick has been a steady producer for the Broncos this season, yet his fantasy price tags rarely seem to rise. He has double-digit fantasy production in all but two games (one was the Hinton game) since Week 3. Over the last four games, Lock has been locked in on Patrick with a near 21% target share, over 21% of the team's air yards, and over 33% of the red-zone targets. He will be facing a good Bills secondary, but a secondary which ranks 21 over the last four games versus wide receivers. They allow over a touchdown per game in the last four and well over 40 total fantasy points to the position. Teammate KJ Hamler always brings nice GPP value and big-play ability, but Patrick brings the consistent production that most will trust on Saturday. In the end, Patrick is the "safer" play, but if you want a mega punt and are feeling frisky, then throw some Hamler value in your lineups as well.

Week 15 Tight End Value Plays

Dawson Knox, BUF at DEN | DK: $2,800, FD: $4,800

Knox is the perfect example of a tight end punt. Since returning in Week 10, he has been targeted at least four times in three of the four games, good for only a 10% target share. That does not seem great, but Knox's punt value comes in the red-zone where he has nearly 27% of the red-zone targets (same as Gabriel Davis). When the Bills get in the red-zone, Allen looks Knox's way. The Broncos have a decent defense, but they allow five receptions for 50 yards and over double-digit fantasy points over the last four games. Knox is a strong punt this week and a piece of Bill's stack that may go slightly overlooked.

If Noah Fant is out, then Nick Vannett and Tony Fumagalli are both in play as values.

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