NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 5 Value Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo

October 10, 2021

Juan Carlos Blanco analyzes optimal DFS value plays for the Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season. These players are worth considering on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo daily fantasy sports games.

Welcome to the Week 5 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mis-priced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
• This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 5 Sunday slates!

Quarterback DFS Value Plays

Mac Jones, NE at HOU | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $20

Jones has shown admirable poise as a rookie, even proving the matchup against the legend he's filling the shoes of in New England wasn't too big for him in Week 4. The Alabama product now goes from one extreme to the other in terms of matchup, as the Texans check in allowing 264.8 passing yards per game at 7.7 yards per attempt and at a 66.4 percent completion rate. Jones has thrown for at least 270 yards in three of his first four games while already notching 12 completions of more than 20 yards, and with a fully healthy receiving corps that now includes N'Keal Harry in addition to a solid top trio of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers -- plus two highly capable tight ends -- he's well equipped to exploit what should be plenty of opportunities at varying depth of target.

Jared Goff, DET at MIN | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $28

Goff is stuck in an unenviable situation in Detroit at the moment, but the generosity of his team's defense has served to position him for plenty of opportunities to pad his stats during the second halves of games. The first-year Lion came just one yard short of his second 300-yard effort on his new squad in Week 4 when he totaled 299 against the Bears, and he's put up at least 36 attempts and thrown multiple TDs in three of his first four games. The opposing Vikings played good pass defense against the erratic Baker Mayfield in Week 4, but Minnesota has still allowed 265.3 passing yards per game over the last three contests at 7.9 yards per attempt. The Vikes have also surrendered a 68.0 percent completion rate, while Goff has exceeded a 70.0 percent completion rate in two games and has 17 completions of over 20 yards already.

ALSO CONSIDER: Trevor Lawrence, JAC vs. TEN | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $24

Running Back DFS Value Plays

Damien Williams, CHI at LVR | DK: $5,600, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $18

Williams is set to log lead-back duty in Week 5, and beyond, with David Montgomery (knee) sidelined. The versatile veteran offers the potential to contribute through both the ground and air, and he checks into the contest having averaged 24.3 DK/ 21.1 FD points per game in the 13 contests in which he's logged double-digit carries during his career. The opposing Raiders have allowed 132.7 rushing yards per game at 4.9 yards per carry as well, and Las Vegas also checks in having given up a 20-141-2 line through the air to running backs over its first four games. With Chicago boasting the third-highest rushing play percentage (48.9) through the first four weeks and coach Matt Nagy undoubtedly still looking to protect rookie QB Justin Fields as much as possible, Williams should see plenty of work in this interconference matchup.

Leonard Fournette, TB vs. MIA | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $18

Fournette seems to be the clearly preferred option over Ronald Jones in the Bucs' backfield at the moment, especially after he racked up 139 total yards against the Patriots in the Week 4 win. Fournette logged 20 carries in that contest for the first time this season and extended his season-opening streak of games with multiple receptions to four contests. The fifth-year back has a premium matchup and potentially very favorable game script in front of him in Week 5 as well. The Dolphins have given up 136.8 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry, and they've also yielded a 26-174-1 line through the air to running backs as well. With the Buccaneers big home favorites, Fournette could well be in position to see a hefty workload, particularly in the second half against what figures to be a tired defense.

ALSO CONSIDER: James Conner, ARI vs. SF | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $19

Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays

A.J. Brown, TEN at JAC | DK: $6,500, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $27

Brown is cleared from hamstring injury that cost him all but eight snaps the last two games and should be raring to go against a Jaguars defense that's allowed 312.2 passing yards per game and an AFC-high 9.4 yards per attempt. Jacksonville has also yielded an NFL-high 75.2 percent completion rate and a 62-892-2 line to receivers through four weeks, along with a 75.6 percent catch rate to the position specifically. Factoring in the fact fellow wideout Julio Jones is already ruled out for Sunday's game, Brown could be in for a significantly elevated workload against a sieve of a secondary.

Laviska Shenault Jr., JAC vs. TEN  | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $18

Shenault is going to be the inevitable recipient of more work in the absence of D.J. Chark (ankle), with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell even publicly saying so earlier in the week. The effect of Chark's absence on Shenault's production and even average depth of target was evident in Week 4 against the Bengals, when he racked up six receptions for 99 yards with Chark exiting very early in the contest. Shenault now gets a crack at a Titans defense that allowed the most receiving yards (944) and touchdowns (eight) to receivers through four games, and at 15.5 yards per reception. The versatile second-year man's reliable hands should earn him plenty of looks from Trevor Lawrence, making his current salaries a potential bargain across the board.

Kadarius Toney, NYG at DAL | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $13

Toney sets up for another expanded role in Week 5 with both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard ruled out already due to their respective hamstring injuries. In the absence of both his teammates in Week 4, Toney logged a hefty nine targets and parlayed them into a 6-78 line across 46 snaps. Daniel Jones had to put the ball up plenty in that overtime win against the Saints, and the same will likely be true in Week 5 against a Cowboys squad that's giving up 315.2 passing yards per contest, the seventh-most receiving yards to wideouts (849) and the third-most receiving touchdowns (six). Dallas is also giving up a hefty 14.4 yards per catch to receivers, and Toney could see a bigger downfield role given his speed and New York's need to remain aggressive against the highly potent Cowboys in order to keep pace.

ALSO CONSIDER: Hunter Renfrow, LVR vs. CHI | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $16

Tight End DFS Value Plays

Mike Gesicki, MIA at TB | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $16

Richard Sherman made an impact in his first game as a Buc despite having just three days of practice, and his conditioning should be a lot more up to par for this contest. The relevance of that to Gesicki is that the Dolphins, which already execute a very cautious air attack under Jacoby Brissett, will likely be looking for alternate ways to move the ball through the air, especially with Will Fuller (IR-finger) unavailable and DeVante Parker going into the weekend questionable due to shoulder and hamstring injuries. The Bucs will be without safety Antoine Winfield (concussion) as well, a key component of their tight-end coverage, and Tampa Bay already checks in having allowed a 28-239-3 line to tight ends over the first four games of the season with Winfield available. Gesicki has already been the subject of plenty of Brissett's attention the two full games they've played together (15-143-1 line on 18 targets), and the trend could certainly continue Sunday due to all the factors cited.

Zach Ertz, PHI at CAR | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $11

Many will likely be on Dallas Goedert if targeting a Philly tight end in Week 5, but Ertz's salaries and recent role make him a sharp pivot off his teammate. The one-time Pro Bowler has gotten plenty of Jalen Hurts' attention over the last two games, drawing 15 targets over that span and parlaying them into a 10-113-1 line. Ertz hasn't logged less than 30 snaps in any contest thus far and boasts an 18.4 percent improvement in catch rate over last season in the early going. The veteran is also in a reasonably good spot against the Panthers defense, which has yielded an 18-179-2 line to tight ends over the first four games. With the Eagles' speedy receivers and Goedert all drawing plenty of attention and Carolina still down both a starting linebacker and safety in Shaq Thompson and Juston Burris, respectively, Ertz could be primed for a solid day in the short and intermediate passing windows.

ALSO CONSIDER: Dalton Schultz, DAL vs. NYG | DK: $6,200, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $19

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