RADIO
Week 8 was a tough week for me. The Panthers got their first win of the year, defeating me on the moneyline. The Cardinals executed an onside kick with 48 seconds left and kicked a last-minute field goal to cut the margin of their loss to the Ravens to less than ten, costing me the spread. I didn't maintain my success picking over/under, either, as the Colts and Saints both went off.
It was so bad that my off-hand comment in the intro about the Chiefs beating the Broncos failed to come true. "Make that seven straight wins [for the Chiefs]," I predicted. "Or pick the Broncos to pull the upset if my pick record is any sign." That about sums it up.
Well, we'll see if things go better in Week 9. I'll try to turn it around in the second half of the season!
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Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 0-1 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 2-5 on Moneyline, 3-11 Against the Spread, 7-2 on Over/Under Picks
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (IND -2.5 / IND -137)
Sunday, 4:05 pm | O/U: 44
The Indianapolis Colts have lost three straight, but they were competitive against some quality teams, including the New Orleans Saints, a game they lost in a shootout last week, and the Cleveland Browns, a game they could have won if not for some questionable calls. The Carolina Panthers beat the Houston Texans by two last week for their first win of the season. The Colts beat the Texans 31-20 in Week 2.
The Colts offense has been functioning better each week. They have been averaging 27.6 points in games in which Gardner Minshew throws more than 20 passes. He's a high-variance quarterback. He has thrown five "big-time throws" of over 20 yards downfield, but he has also thrown five interceptions. If Minshew turns the ball over three times like he did against Jacksonville in Week 6, that could be a problem.
But the Colts should be able to rely on the run and decrease their reliance on Minshew. Jonathan Taylor has taken some time to get things going. He didn't start and get the bulk of the carries until Week 7, in which he gained 75 yards on 18 carries against an elite Browns defense. Last week, he went off for 95 yards on 12 carries.
Now, the Panthers have a worse rushing defense than both the Browns and the Saints. They are allowing 4.7 yards per carry, the fifth-most, and 139.4 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most, as well as allowing the most estimated points per play on rushing plays.
Pick: Colts over Panthers on the ML (-137)
Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -6)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 44
The 6-2 Ravens are six-point favorites over the 5-2 Seahawks at home. The Ravens look like the better team to me, but they are a lot closer than the line would suggest. Looking at their adjusted offensive and defensive scoring rates, their offenses are almost equal, with the Seahawks having a slight edge, and their defenses are close, too, but the Ravens have a clear edge. The Ravens are No. 2 in net EPA per play, and the Seahawks are No. 9. In another game with a similar disparity between the two teams, the Eagles are only three-point favorites over the Cowboys in Philly.
Since losing to the Rams in Week 1, the Seahawks have been 5-1, their only loss coming by four points to a resurgent Bengals team in Week 6. They've beaten tough teams like the Lions and the Browns. Yes, they will be traveling all the way across the country, but they smacked down the Giants 24-3 in New York in Week 4. The Ravens have not covered a spread as favorites of six points or greater since Week 1. I see the Ravens winning, but the Seahawks should be able to keep it within six or push.
Pick: Seahawks (+6) over Ravens (-110)
Week 9 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -1.5)
Sunday, 9:30 am (Frankfurt, Germany) | O/U: 50
The Kansas City offense has the talent, but they have been hit-or-miss this season. They have scored over 30 points twice and scored under 20 points three times. Two of those games were against the division-rival Broncos, whose defense has presented problems for Patrick Mahomes, so that could be a matchup-specific glitch.
The Miami Dolphins have scored 30 or more points five times. However, they were held to under 20 points by the Bills and the Eagles, the only two Super Bowl-contending teams they have faced. The Chiefs' defense is better than both the Bills and Eagles in terms of EPA per play and points per game.
Both teams had to travel long distances to get to Germany. Their travel fatigue might cause them to start out slowly or depress total scoring. Although the sample size is small, the teams that played in England scored fewer points there than they have averaged this season. Specifically, five of the six teams have scored below their average.
Pick: Under 50 (-110)
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