X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL Betting Picks for Week 6 (10/17/2021) - Spreads, Totals, and Moneylines

d'andre swift fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Steve Janik analyzes the 2021 Week 6 NFL schedule and recommends his favorite NFL picks. His analysis consists of key player and stat breakdowns, as well as recent performance and historical stat and trend data to help you make informed betting decisions, each and every week.

We pulled in another .500 week in Week 5, including my first prop pick of the season as Aaron Rodgers had a field day through the air against Cincinnati. The Chargers used a huge fourth quarter comeback to down the Browns and cover at home in a high-scoring game. Philly and Carolina played terribly, in a game that easily should have hit the over, but that's the way sports betting works. Overall, still a small loss unit wise in Week 5, but we're working our way back to 50% for the year.

  • 2021 Season: 6-10 (37%, -4.7u)
    • Spread: 4-1, +2.5u
    • Total/Team Total:  1-7, -6u
    • Moneyline: 0-2, -1.6u
    • Props: 1-0, .4u

As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Houston Texans (-10) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday 10/17, 1PM EST | O/U: 43

Houston is for sure a mess still, but Week 5 was certainly a sign of progression with their bare bones roster. Rookie David Mills passed for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots and that's without Brandin Cooks having a big day. The Stanford product spread the ball around quite effectively, with five receivers catching multiple passes. This includes the breakout game from receiver Chris Moore, who caught five passes for 103 yards and a score. The run game has been atrocious since Week 1, but against a Colts defense with a strong front seven and a leaky secondary, I don't expect much running out of Houston in this one. Defensively, the Texans rank in the bottom 10 in points per game, yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed, however, they haven't allowed more than 290 yards passing in any game since Week 1.

Indianapolis might take the cake for most disappointing team through five weeks, if were' accounting for preseason expectations. Carson Wentz has been his normal self (incredibly inconsistent). The Week 5 overtime loss to Baltimore was the first time the Colts have thrown for more than 245 yards, but the run game has been solid if nothing else. They've tallied over 105 yards on the ground in four of five contests and facing against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL has to have Jonathan Taylor licking his chops.  Defensively, the Colts are the polar opposite of their opponent, housing the 30th ranked pass defense by DVOA and the 2nd ranked run unit.

These two teams are certainly a mess, and while Indianapolis has no business being a 10-point favorite, I'm looking elsewhere in this one. Both defenses have are porous in their own way, and their opponent have the talent to take advantage of those weaknesses. I look for Houston to keep it close with Indy, allowing the score to keep rising.

Pick: Over 43 (-118, FoxBet) 1 Unit

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

Sunday, 10/10, 1PM EST | O/U: 47

It's hard not to be excited about the future of this Bengals team. The trio Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase should be around for the next several years and so far they've given fans a reason for excitement. Wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh got many hyped up, but the numbers to back it up weren't all that impressive. Overall, the team averages just 23 ppg and ranks 25th in total offense, 22nd in rushing, and 24th in passing. On the defensive end, the trading card numbers look nice, allowing just 20 ppg but they've surrendered over 340 yards in four of five games. They have forced five turnovers so far and also rank top 10 in sacks per game (2.6), so there is some talent in this unit.

These Lions have been playing incredibly tough the last three week. Despite the 0-3 record in that span, they've lost by a combined 14 points. Led by Jared Goff, no one will expect them to put up insane numbers but they have a nice balance with D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in the run game. Playmaking tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) is banged up and questionable to go, so if he somehow misses that would be just an immense hit to the offense because the rest of the receiving corps. Defensively, there is reason to be skeptical. However, keep in mind this Lions unit held the Ravens and Vikings to just 19 points apiece. They've allowed over at least 320 yards of offense in all five games, but their recent performance wreaks of a "bend-don't-break" gameplan.

I see this as a look-ahead spot for Cincy here. They're 3-2, off a brutal overtime loss to Green Bay and now they have the start of a three-game road stretch with Baltimore looming next week. Detroit is surely not good, but they've shown to be very competitive so far, with four of their five losses coming by eight points or less against far better teams than the Bengals. I'll take the Lions to cover and might even sprinkle some moneyline for them to get their first victory.

Pick: Lions +3.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit

 

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Sunday, 10/17, 4:05PM EST | O/U: 49.5

Arizona is 5-0 and making waves through the opening part of the season. Kyler Murray has some throwing his name around the early MVP conversations, with 13 total touchdowns and over 1600 yards of offense. They haven't needed to rely on the run game too much, except when they get close and allow James Conner to plow it in; he's up to five rushing touchdowns so far. Despite losing their tight end, Maxx Williams (knee) for the season, the receiving corps is where Arizona makes their money though, carrying weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and A.J. Green. On the defensive side, the Cardinals will likely be without star pass rusher Chandler Jones (COVID) which would be a big hit to the unit that's held the Rams and 49ers to 20 points or less the last two weeks.

Cleveland really dropped the ball last week against the Chargers. After leading 27-21 after three quarters, they allowed the Chargers to outscore them 26-15 in the final quarter. Baker Mayfield continues to do just enough to keep the Browns in the game and has done a fine job, throwing for over 1,00 yards with just four touchdowns. It's the running game of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt that carry the load, with both having rushed for over 290 yards already with nine total touchdowns between the two of them. However, it is important to note that neither have practiced this week due to injury, so if they are able to go, they will likely not be 100%. Defensively, Cleveland ranks 12th in DVOA with a 5th ranked unit against the run. Last week against the Chargers was just a total breakdown, as it was the first time the defense has allowed over 100 rushing yards and just the second time they've given up 300 yards or more in the air.

Arizona isn't scared to move the ball around, but Kliff Kingsbury's teams do not sling it quite as well on the road. Since he took over in 2019, the under is 14-5 with Arizona on the road. The under is 4-6 when Cleveland is at home since the beginning Stefanki's coaching career, but that number isn't enough to scare me away from the under here. I look for Cleveland to continue to ground the game out, keeping the ball out of the hands of the up-tempo Arizona offense.

Pick: Under 49.5  (-112 Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Advice

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event