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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 5 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
We took care of some business in Week 4, going 2-1, with the loss being a disappointing one. Baltimore took care of business, although a bad no-call on a would-be Marquise Brown touchdown made it a little more a sweat than need be. Jacksonville and Cincinnati covered the over with ease, and that was after the total jumped by five points from the opening line. Then we have the Los Angeles Rams who completely wet the bed against the Giants. While they still won, it was nowhere near the dominating performance I was expecting. Anywho, we move forward to Week 5 of the COVID stricken 2020 NFL season!
- Week 4: 2-1 (66%%, +1.12u)
- 2019 Season: 7-5 (58%, +2.37u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Arizona Cardinals (-7, -335) at New York Jets
O/U: 47
Arizona hasn't exactly jumped into our living rooms as the potent offense everyone expected from them entering 2020. After starting 2-0, they find themselves losers of their last two. They've averaged just 370 yards per game (ypg) and 24.5 points per game (ppg) through four games. Add in a negative turnover differential and you're asking for trouble. Kyler Murray has definitely done his part, throwing for 900+ and rushing for 400+ more, while accumulating 11 touchdowns, but nothing too special. Kenyan Drake has been a disappointment, albeit because of strange usage, and aside from DeAndre Hopkins, no one else has really stepped up to make plays. Defensively the Cardinals have been about league average, but struggle on the road, allowing almost 90 yards more as visitors than as hosts.
The Jets are a debacle, and now they will be starting Joe Flacco, since Sam Darnold (shoulder) is hurt. At 0-4, somehow Adam Gase still has a job, but not for much longer at this pace. They're tied for 32nd in yards with the Giants averaging just 278 ypg and a paltry 4.5 yards per play. Leveon Bell is still on injured reserve which leave Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage to take care of the run game. Their receiving corps of Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios, and tight end Chris Herndon is less than average, at best. To close out, they've eclipsed 280 yards of offense just once and it was last week against a bad Denver team. Defensively, the Jets actually house a somewhat respectable defense, ranked 7th in the run, based on DVOA, and they allow just 240 ypg through the air, including only 209 passing yards per game at home.
Both of these teams are having their fair share of issues. Neither averages more than 5.5 yards per play or more than 24.5 ppg. The under is 4-0 in all of Arizona's games this year, while the under is 1-3 for the Jets to start the year. Arizona has their issues defensively on the road, but the Jets garbage offense shouldn't create too many problems for the cards. However, their defense could give Arizona some issues, so I'm hitting the under, especially after it's jumped three points since opening at 44.
Pick: Under 47.5 (Fanduel) 1 Unit
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, -120)
O/U: 54
We can't say for sure what to make of the Panthers just yet, under a new regime, with a new quarterback. Christian McCaffrey has been out but Mike Davis has given them a solid effort in his place. Teddy Bridgewater's 1,100 yards passing puts him 6th in the league, but just a 4/3 TD/Int will need some work, but something tells me this offense hasn't quite popped off yet, as evidenced by D.J. Moore's uneventful start to the year. Defensively, they give up over 352 ypg and 387 ypg on the road.
Atlanta has continuously been a team that had high expectations. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are some good reasons why. Well, Ryan hasn't exactly been his usual self and now Jones (hamstring) could possible miss Week 5. Averaging 26.5 ppg shows that offense isn't the issue though, it's the 31.5 ppg allowed (31st in the NFL). Todd Gurley has capped off four drives in pay dirt so far, but the 3.9 yards per rush isn't exaclty hard to gameplan against. If Jones does miss, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, and Olamide Zaccheus will do just fine. As previously mentioned, their defensive unit is atrocious and they've allowed 355 ypg over the last three contests.
There's way more talent on both of these offenses than the defenses could even wish to have. Together, through four games, both combine for 28.5 points in the first half. If Jones was sure to be playing, this game total would be higher, but I like each side to come swinging, despite potentially missing two of the biggest weapons on the field. These defenses are very, very bad.
Pick: First Half Over 27 (+110, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Indianapolis Colts (-1, -118) at Cleveland Browns
O/U: 46.5
This Colts offense hasn't exactly seen the resurgence that some seemed to think they would have with Phillip Rivers under center. He's yet to eclipse 1,000 yards with only four touchdowns in four games. Rookie tailback Jonathan Taylor has done about as well as a newcomer can, but Rivers' inability to make anything exciting happen has hampered this unit. Backup running back Nyheim Hines is leading the team in catches, which says everything about T.Y. Hilton's season thus far, while tight end Mo-Allie Cox and company round out the group. Favoring the Colts is the 271+ passing yards they average on the road thus far, which is over 50 yards more than at home. This Colts Defense is one of the best in the league and will present a much stronger challenge for Cleveland than Dallas did a week ago. They boast the best pass defense and fourth best run defense, in terms of yards allowed per game.
The Browns are 3-1 and no one knows whether to believe it because it feels like we’ve been getting hyped up about the Browns for the better part of the last two seasons. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been asked to do too much, since the Browns lead the league with around 204 rushing ypg. That’s likely the cause for their success, but now that Nick Chubb (knee) is on the IR, we’ll see if Kareem Hunt can handle being the lead back. Receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. came alive last week, but it’s almost too much to count on it to happen again, especially facing a tough defense. The Browns Defense is no slouch either, hosting the most feared pass rusher in the league in Myles Garrett. The defensive end has willed the unit to be ranked top 5 in the NFL in run defense, and that will likely have to continue since the pass defense is one of the league’s worst so far.
The mood is too high on the Browns after last week’s win over the Cowboys. Without Chubb, Cleveland might look for Mayfield to pass more which could spell trouble. Indy is still flying under the radar because of a relatively light schedule so far, but this defense is legit. Cleveland might have better offensive talent overall, but Indy takes the cake on offensive line and defense which will be two crucial aspects of this game.
Pick: Colts -1 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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