NFL Betting Picks For Week 4 (10/4/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Spreads

October 4, 2020

Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 4 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.

Woah baby did we have some sweats going on in Week 3, but we earned a sweep that will hopefully set the tone for the rest of the season. While this is without a doubt the most unprecedented season of my lifetime, the NFL will do everything they can to keep the train from derailing. So we’re going to treat this season as normal as possible and have some fun doing it!

• Week 3: 3-0 (100%, +3.15u)
• 2019 Season: 5-4 (55%, +1.25u)

(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, -1000) at Washington Redskins

O/U: 45.5

The Ravens got embarrassed last Monday night, and while they have a short week to prepare, they luckily get to play one of the laughing stocks of the NFL, the Washington Football Team. Though the offense struggled to even move the ball, we know of the talent here. Lamar Jackson is responsible for over 700 yards of offense and five passing touchdowns. Mark Ingram II, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins are in as much of a timeshare as possible, with none of them registering more than 37% of snaps this season. Ingram's been the least effective of the trio, but he's gotten the most opportunities thus far. The passing game hasn't quite taken off, but Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews have received 47% of the team's targets, with Andrews hauling in two scores.

Washington's defense is led by a solid pass rush that has tallied 13 sacks through just three games. Of course Chase Young is the spotlight being the elite rookie but he’s now hurt. This shouldn’t be too big of an ask, as the unit generates pressure on 25% of dropbacks, good for Top 10 in the league. Unfortunately for them, they face the most mobile quarterback the NFL has seen since Mike Vick. They'll be able to generate pressure, but they'll need some extra game planning to be able to truly force Jackson to make mistakes through the air.

Baltimore averages around 18 ppg in the first half so far; however, the majority of their first-half success comes in the second quarter where they average 17 ppg. The Football Team are obviously terrible and their 18 ppg allowed in the first half is evidence of that. There is no way the Ravens should be projected to score just 15.5 points in the first half. Following their embarrassing performance Monday, they will be out to prove they're not frauds, and they will have no problems doing it at the expense of their neighbor.

Pick: Baltimore First Half Team Total Over 15.5 (+103, Draftkings 20% Profit Boost) 1 Unit

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, -157)

O/U: 49

The Jaguars caught some people off guard with their first two games, where they went 1-1. Then they got throttled by the Miami Dolphins a week ago. Look, Gardner Minshew is certainly entertaining, but when it comes to being an NFL caliber quarterback, I'm not sure he fits the bill. His backfield mate, James Robinson, has come onto the scene, rushing for 210 yards and three scores, which has aided Minshew in the passing game. In their one road game, the Jags gained 480 yards of offense in a tough loss to the Titans. D.J. Chark (chest/back) could return this week, and he certainly make their offense better, but Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault Jr. aren't slouches and give Minshew a solid duo if Chark does miss again.

We've gotten a good glimpse of what Joe Burrow can bring to the NFL, and so far so good. It's unfortunate his offensive line and defense aren't up to snuff to give him a shot at making an impact as a rookie. The LSU product has been sacked 13 times in three games but has still managed to throw for 821 yards with a 5/1 TD/Int. Those same offensive line struggles have affected their run game with Joe Mixon who's averaged 3.2 ypa (yards per attempt) and no touchdowns. Needless to say, it's obvious tht any chance this offense has will come through the air.

Both defenses give up between 5.5-6 yards per play and around 13 yards per completion in their respective situation (home or away). Both defenses have some major players banged up, which makes them even more porous. Keep in mind this total opened at 44.5 and jumped up to 49, so they public is on this heavy. That might push some towards the under, but with how bad these defenses are, and the chance that Chark plays for the Jags, I see points being aplenty here. I also lean Jacksonville and the points here.

Pick: Over 49 (+109, Draftkings 20% Profit Boost) 1 Unit

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5, -640)

O/U: 48

The Giants are an absolute mess, especially without Saquon Barkley. Many think Daniel Jones could be a solid NFL quarterback, and they're probably right, but he can't save this team. The Giants ranked 27th or worst in every major offensive category, including the league's worst rushing attack with just 170 yards through three games. Devonta Freeman was brought in to "shore up" their run game, but that likely will never happen due to the wear on his legs. They do host a solid receiving corps but facing a tough Rams secondary could cause problems for this offense. Defensively, the Giants have been better on the road than at home, but that's just on a one-game sample. By DVOA, they have the 8th ranked run defense, but the 30th pass defense.

Sean McVay has a plethora of weapons to use on offense, and use them he does. The Rams have averaged 450 ypg so far, including 170 ypg on the ground. However, expect the Rams to attack the Giants secondary this week, using Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, but also the streaky Tyler Higbee. Defensively, all you really need to speak about is Aaron Donald. He's matchup proof virtually every week, and his constant pressure will create opportunities for the Rams secondary that allows an average of just 10.1 yards per completion.

The Giants got throttled a week ago by a decimated 49ers group. The Rams are in much better shape and clicking on all cylinders offensively. I'd lean the full game spread, but I think the Rams get ahead early and often before pulling back a little in the second half, so I'm taking the Rams first half.

Pick: Rams -6.5 First Half (-110, Draftkings 20% Profit Boost) 1 Unit

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