NFL Betting Picks for Week 4 (10/3/2021) - Spreads, Totals, and Moneylines

October 1, 2021

Steve Janik analyzes the 2021 Week 4 NFL schedule and recommends his favorite NFL picks. His analysis consists of key player and stat breakdowns, as well as recent performance and historical stat and trend data to help you make informed betting decisions, each and every week.

What a disgusting Week 3, as I went 0-3. The Lions made a late-minute push and if they would've tried to score a touchdown instead of playing it safe by kicking a field goal, they would have easily hit the team total. Washington got absolutely demolished by Buffalo and the Bucs and Rams went toe to toe, especially in a tight second half but the defenses got tested a little too much. I’d recommend fading me for awhile until I can get things under control.

• 2021 Season: 2-7 (22%, -5u)
  • Spread: 2-1, +.72u
  • Total:  0-5, -5u
  • Moneyline: 0-1, -.75u
  • Props: 0-0

As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Sunday 10/3, 1PM EST | O/U: 51.5

Carolina is certainly the surprise team of the NFL, entering Week 4 with a 3-0 record. Sam Darnold has been pretty impressive in his new digs, but hasn't really branched out from his safe havens in Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and D.J. Moore. However, CMC is expected to miss the next few weeks and Moore is on a relatively unstable pace as teams prepare to take him out of the gameplan. Until we see more from the signal caller, we have to assume he's going to come down to earth. The real shocker here is the Carolina defense that ranks first in the NFL in yards against. They've allowed under 200 ypg passing and under 50 ypg on the ground. Is it a fluke? It's tough to say, as they rank first in DVOA but considering their schedule thus far, the Cowboys will be their first true test on both sides of the ball.

The Cowboys devoured the Eagles on Sunday Night Football and I think many are starting to take the whole team for real. No one questioned the offense would be electric, but the defense really showed some gall in Week 3 against Philadelphia. The Dallas run game, spearheaded by Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard has put up over 350 yards in the last two games, which hasn't even allowed the Cowboy pass attack to really take off. If Elliott and Pollard can continue to control the ground, defenses will start sleeping against this deadly passing attack. The Dallas defense definitely showed up in Week 3,, but they still have their issues. They give up a ton of yards through the air (331 ypg) but do a great job generating takeaways, with eight through three games. They have a juicy matchup against Darnold who may feel a little too comfortable too early.

Considering how Carolina has looked thus far, this spread seems about right. But for someone who was pretty high on Darnold coming into the year, I think he's going to be humbled here in Jerry's World. No safety net in CMC is going to be a big change in what he is used to with his new squad and I look for Dallas to get more pressure and force some mistakes for the USC product.

Pick: Dallas -4 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 10/3, 1PM EST | O/U: 51.5

Cleveland fans are excited about the 2-1 start to the season, but their schedule hasn't exactly been the most battle tested, outside of Kansas City Week 1. They've relied almost exclusively on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground, rushing for over 150 yards in all three games so far. This is a similar trend we saw the Browns take in 2020, but without Jarvis Landry and a fully healthy Odell Beckham Jr., it will likely carry for the Browns into the foreseeable future. Defensively, if you take out last weeks odd game against Chicago, Cleveland has been struggling mightily against the pass. They definitely don't struggle getting to the quarterback, registering 12 sacks as a team already, but they'll have a tough test against a strong Minnesota offensive line that has only allowed five sacks.

The Vikings finally capitalized in Week 3, knocking off the Seahawks 30-17 after two tough losses to open the season. Naturally, their first win came without the help of star running back Dalvin Cook, but in the Vikings favor, they have one of the best backups in football in Alexander Mattison who totaled 171 total yards. Add that on top of the Kirk Cousins and his stud receiving corps who tallied 323 yards and three scores. On the other side, the Vikings haven't exactly impressed but were substantially better at home last week, which is opposite of their 2020 campaign. However, they'll need to replicate the 1.5 takeaways per game they saw last season to make any substantial upgrades on defense.

Cleveland came into this season with major expectations of taking the AFC North and having a shot to contend for the AFC Championship. That may still be the case, but it will take more than wins over Houston and Chicago to prove it to me. On the other sideline, Minnesota gets the middle of their three-game home stretch after a strong win over Seattle. Sure, Cook could miss another game, but Mattison has proven his worth and the passing game does not have much to worry about. Give me the Vikings at home.

Pick: Minnesota ML (+118, Fanduel) .85 Units to win 1 Unit

Pittsburgh Pirates at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Sunday, 10/3, 4:25PM EST | O/U: 45.5

Some seemed to come into this year with the expectation that Ben Roethlisberger was going to show a "second wind" in his lengthy career. Well, things have gone awry. Through the last two weeks, the Steelers have been outplayed by seemingly inferior teams and at home, which typically does not happen in Pittsburgh. Najee Harris is an electric playmaker, but without an offensive line (injuries, poor talent), he's relying on Big Ben to look his way exclusively in the passing game. Granted, Diontae Johnson (knee) is expected to be back this week, but now JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool are on the injury report so this offense is as big of a mess as it seems. Defensively, things aren't much better. TJ Watt was banged up but should return this week. However, it's the passing game that is causing this team problems. They're ranked 23rd in passing DVOA and against Green Bay, that's not a good flaw to have.

The Packers are a case of Jekyll and Hyde through the first three games. After Week 1, every soul in the media and on Twitter said Aaron Rodgers is toast and doesn’t care. However, the last two games have proven otherwise with wins over Detroit and San Francisco. He’s getting some big help from Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, making this one of the more top-heavy offenses (talent-wise) in the NFL. Defensively, Green Bay is just as inconsistent as the offense, though they do have four takeaways in the last two games, something they’ll look to carry over into Week 4.

Pittsburgh knows they have many weaknesses right now, and they know they’re running into trouble against a confident Aaron Rodgers at home. Despite their line troubles, I look for them to limit the stress on Big Ben and let Najee try and churn out a big day on the ground, limiting Green Bay’s chances offensively, and keeping this a low-scoring game. To back me up here, a trend I’ll point out is the under is 12-4-1 when Pittsburgh is the visitor since 2019.

Pick: Under 45.5  (-110 Barstool Sportsbook, 1 Unit)

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