X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL Betting Picks for Week 4 (10/3/2021) - Spreads, Totals, and Moneylines

What a disgusting Week 3, as I went 0-3. The Lions made a late-minute push and if they would've tried to score a touchdown instead of playing it safe by kicking a field goal, they would have easily hit the team total. Washington got absolutely demolished by Buffalo and the Bucs and Rams went toe to toe, especially in a tight second half but the defenses got tested a little too much. I’d recommend fading me for awhile until I can get things under control.

  • 2021 Season: 2-7 (22%, -5u)
    • Spread: 2-1, +.72u
    • Total:  0-5, -5u
    • Moneyline: 0-1, -.75u
    • Props: 0-0

As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Sunday 10/3, 1PM EST | O/U: 51.5

Carolina is certainly the surprise team of the NFL, entering Week 4 with a 3-0 record. Sam Darnold has been pretty impressive in his new digs, but hasn't really branched out from his safe havens in Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and D.J. Moore. However, CMC is expected to miss the next few weeks and Moore is on a relatively unstable pace as teams prepare to take him out of the gameplan. Until we see more from the signal caller, we have to assume he's going to come down to earth. The real shocker here is the Carolina defense that ranks first in the NFL in yards against. They've allowed under 200 ypg passing and under 50 ypg on the ground. Is it a fluke? It's tough to say, as they rank first in DVOA but considering their schedule thus far, the Cowboys will be their first true test on both sides of the ball.

The Cowboys devoured the Eagles on Sunday Night Football and I think many are starting to take the whole team for real. No one questioned the offense would be electric, but the defense really showed some gall in Week 3 against Philadelphia. The Dallas run game, spearheaded by Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard has put up over 350 yards in the last two games, which hasn't even allowed the Cowboy pass attack to really take off. If Elliott and Pollard can continue to control the ground, defenses will start sleeping against this deadly passing attack. The Dallas defense definitely showed up in Week 3,, but they still have their issues. They give up a ton of yards through the air (331 ypg) but do a great job generating takeaways, with eight through three games. They have a juicy matchup against Darnold who may feel a little too comfortable too early.

Considering how Carolina has looked thus far, this spread seems about right. But for someone who was pretty high on Darnold coming into the year, I think he's going to be humbled here in Jerry's World. No safety net in CMC is going to be a big change in what he is used to with his new squad and I look for Dallas to get more pressure and force some mistakes for the USC product.

Pick: Dallas -4 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit

 

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 10/3, 1PM EST | O/U: 51.5

Cleveland fans are excited about the 2-1 start to the season, but their schedule hasn't exactly been the most battle tested, outside of Kansas City Week 1. They've relied almost exclusively on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground, rushing for over 150 yards in all three games so far. This is a similar trend we saw the Browns take in 2020, but without Jarvis Landry and a fully healthy Odell Beckham Jr., it will likely carry for the Browns into the foreseeable future. Defensively, if you take out last weeks odd game against Chicago, Cleveland has been struggling mightily against the pass. They definitely don't struggle getting to the quarterback, registering 12 sacks as a team already, but they'll have a tough test against a strong Minnesota offensive line that has only allowed five sacks.

The Vikings finally capitalized in Week 3, knocking off the Seahawks 30-17 after two tough losses to open the season. Naturally, their first win came without the help of star running back Dalvin Cook, but in the Vikings favor, they have one of the best backups in football in Alexander Mattison who totaled 171 total yards. Add that on top of the Kirk Cousins and his stud receiving corps who tallied 323 yards and three scores. On the other side, the Vikings haven't exactly impressed but were substantially better at home last week, which is opposite of their 2020 campaign. However, they'll need to replicate the 1.5 takeaways per game they saw last season to make any substantial upgrades on defense.

Cleveland came into this season with major expectations of taking the AFC North and having a shot to contend for the AFC Championship. That may still be the case, but it will take more than wins over Houston and Chicago to prove it to me. On the other sideline, Minnesota gets the middle of their three-game home stretch after a strong win over Seattle. Sure, Cook could miss another game, but Mattison has proven his worth and the passing game does not have much to worry about. Give me the Vikings at home.

Pick: Minnesota ML (+118, Fanduel) .85 Units to win 1 Unit

 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Sunday, 10/3, 4:25PM EST | O/U: 45.5

Some seemed to come into this year with the expectation that Ben Roethlisberger was going to show a "second wind" in his lengthy career. Well, things have gone awry. Through the last two weeks, the Steelers have been outplayed by seemingly inferior teams and at home, which typically does not happen in Pittsburgh. Najee Harris is an electric playmaker, but without an offensive line (injuries, poor talent), he's relying on Big Ben to look his way exclusively in the passing game. Granted, Diontae Johnson (knee) is expected to be back this week, but now JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool are on the injury report so this offense is as big of a mess as it seems. Defensively, things aren't much better. TJ Watt was banged up but should return this week. However, it's the passing game that is causing this team problems. They're ranked 23rd in passing DVOA and against Green Bay, that's not a good flaw to have.

The Packers are a case of Jekyll and Hyde through the first three games. After Week 1, every soul in the media and on Twitter said Aaron Rodgers is toast and doesn’t care. However, the last two games have proven otherwise with wins over Detroit and San Francisco. He’s getting some big help from Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, making this one of the more top-heavy offenses (talent-wise) in the NFL. Defensively, Green Bay is just as inconsistent as the offense, though they do have four takeaways in the last two games, something they’ll look to carry over into Week 4.

Pittsburgh knows they have many weaknesses right now, and they know they’re running into trouble against a confident Aaron Rodgers at home. Despite their line troubles, I look for them to limit the stress on Big Ben and let Najee try and churn out a big day on the ground, limiting Green Bay’s chances offensively, and keeping this a low-scoring game. To back me up here, a trend I’ll point out is the under is 12-4-1 when Pittsburgh is the visitor since 2019.

Pick: Under 45.5  (-110 Barstool Sportsbook, 1 Unit)



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Advice

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Perfetti31 mins ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Karel Vejmelka42 mins ago

Earns Victory On Sunday
Jordan Kyrou50 mins ago

Tallies Three Points On Sunday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins53 mins ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers
Cale Makar1 hour ago

Tallies Three Points On Sunday
Dmitry Kulikov1 hour ago

Injured On Sunday
NASCAR3 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Wrecked at Las Vegas, but Showed Promising Speed
Alex Bowman3 hours ago

Recovered From Loose Wheel to Finish Seventh
Austin Cindric3 hours ago

Won Stage 1, but Loose Wheel Foiled Victory Bid
William Byron3 hours ago

Lost Las Vegas Race on Strategy, but Still Expanded Points Lead
Ryan Preece3 hours ago

Earned Best Career Non-Drafting Oval Finish at Las Vegas
Mookie Betts8 hours ago

Won't Play In Tokyo Series Against Cubs
Tee Higgins8 hours ago

Becomes Highest-Paid WR2 In NFL History
Ja'Marr Chase8 hours ago

Bengals Make Ja'Marr Chase The Highest-Paid Non-QB In NFL History
Brandin Podziemski9 hours ago

On Track To Return Tuesday
Christian Braun9 hours ago

Tagged As Probable On Injury Report
Aaron Gordon9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Jamal Murray9 hours ago

Iffy For Monday
Nikola Jokić9 hours ago

Nikola Jokic May Sit Out Meeting With Warriors
Quinten Post9 hours ago

Uncertain For Monday
Stephen Curry10 hours ago

Questionable To Play On Monday
Vince Williams Jr.11 hours ago

Returning On Monday
Coby White11 hours ago

Tagged As Probable For Monday
Josh Giddey11 hours ago

Doubtful For Monday
Gary Trent Jr.11 hours ago

Cleared For Sunday
Scotty Pippen Jr.11 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Ja Morant11 hours ago

Won't Play Monday
Aaron Nesmith12 hours ago

Questionable Versus Minnesota
Tyrese Haliburton12 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Monday Night
Michael Tonkin12 hours ago

Will Open Season On Injured List
Aaron Wiggins12 hours ago

Returns To Action Against Bucks
Michel Otañez12 hours ago

Michel Otanez Shut Down From Throwing
Myles Turner12 hours ago

Questionable Against Minnesota
Kyle Kuzma12 hours ago

Ready To Play Sunday
Pascal Siakam12 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

Good To Go Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo12 hours ago

Available Against OKC
Brandon Marsh12 hours ago

Exits Early Sunday
Royce Lewis13 hours ago

Expected To Begin 2025 On Injured List
Miami Dolphins13 hours ago

Ryan Stonehouse Signs With Dolphins
Sam Darnold13 hours ago

Could Opt Out After One Season
Mark Andrews13 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Cut
Igor Shesterkin14 hours ago

Remains In Rangers Crease Sunday
John Gibson14 hours ago

Still Out On Sunday
Nick Bjugstad14 hours ago

Returns For Utah Sunday
Filip Chytil14 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Jiri Kulich15 hours ago

In Concussion Protocol
Adam Pelech15 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Zach Hyman15 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Bailey Falter15 hours ago

Ready To Go For Monday
Yu Darvish15 hours ago

Dealing With Fatigue
Clarke Schmidt15 hours ago

Won't Start On Monday
Mark Leiter Jr.15 hours ago

Should Be Ready For Opening Day
David Bednar15 hours ago

Not Officially Named Closer
Yoán Moncada16 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Could Land On Injured List
Atlanta Falcons16 hours ago

Keith Taylor Signs With Falcons
Atlanta Falcons16 hours ago

Storm Norton Back With Atlanta
Ronnie Rivers17 hours ago

Re-Ups With Rams
Mason Adams17 hours ago

Diagnosed With Flexor Strain
Joey Gallo17 hours ago

White Sox Release Joey Gallo
Sean Burke17 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Jung Hoo Lee18 hours ago

Expected To Remain Sidelined For A Few Days
Max Kepler18 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday After Collision
Eiberson Castellano18 hours ago

Could Win Bullpen Job
Kyle Freeland18 hours ago

Rockies Name Kyle Freeland Their Starter For Opening Day
Royce Lewis18 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Ramón Urías18 hours ago

Ramon Urias Expected To Return On Thursday
Emmanuel Rivera18 hours ago

Dealing With Sore Shoulder
New York Jets19 hours ago

Derrick Nnadi Signing With Jets
Washington Commanders20 hours ago

Eddie Goldman Joins Commanders On One-Year Deal
Cooper Rush20 hours ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Ravens
Baltimore Ravens22 hours ago

Ben Cleveland Remaining With Ravens
Seattle Seahawks22 hours ago

Shemar Jean-Charles Signing With Seahawks
Velus Jones Jr.23 hours ago

Signs With Saints
Christopher Bell24 hours ago

Quest For Four Wins In A Row Just Got More Difficult
Kyle Larson24 hours ago

Should Contend For Another Win At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney24 hours ago

Once Again The Chalk DFS Pick At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain24 hours ago

Fastest In Practice At Las Vegas
Chris Buescher24 hours ago

Has Sneaky Upside This Weekend
Quinton Byfield1 day ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Contest
Chase Elliott1 day ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov1 day ago

Shuts The Door On Flyers On Saturday
William Byron1 day ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli1 day ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar1 day ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski1 day ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones1 day ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez1 day ago

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar1 day ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano1 day ago

Likely To Lead At Las Vegas, But Will He Lead Enough For DFS Consideration?
Jordan Mason1 day ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
Dee Eskridge2 days ago

Sticking With Dolphins
JuJu Smith-Schuster2 days ago

Returning To Chiefs
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Parris Campbell2 days ago

Headed To Dallas
Jiri Kulich2 days ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tyler Myers2 days ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Philadelphia Eagles2 days ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani3 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos3 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson3 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro3 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay3 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA3 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos3 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman5 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard5 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips5 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith5 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler5 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter5 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy5 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre5 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young5 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim5 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy5 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Kaleb Johnson - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: Best, Worst Picks In Rounds 1-4

You don't want to draft the below players, trust me. There are busts in every year's rookie class, and while some of them are tough to predict, others show clear signs that they aren't worth their capital. Many players have great fortune in college, playing on great teams that elevate their production and thus the […]


Matthew Golden - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Draft

2025 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Rankings: Top 5 Rookies

Last year’s wide receiver class was one of the best in recent history, totaling three top-10 picks and seven prospects coming off the board in the first round. Many have called this year’s class a massive downgrade compared to last year’s unit. Yet, the 2025 wide receiver draft class has several impressive prospects. There might […]


Brenton Strange - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire, TE Streamers, NFL DFS

Winners and Losers of 2025 NFL Free Agency in Fantasy Football

NFL Free Agency has been quite the frenzy. At RotoBaller, we track it all for you right here! It might not always feel like it, but there have been a ton of impactful moves. And with every move comes a fantasy football impact, right? This article takes a look at some of the top winners […]


Jaylen Wright - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Breakouts: Running Back Sleepers For 2025

The running back position is in constant flux in Dynasty fantasy football, as depth charts are constantly shuffled around, teams often decide to move on from productive players and replace them with cheaper or younger options, and players have their first good seasons in their careers. We're mostly concerned with that last point -- RBs […]


Albert Haynesworth - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Worst NFL Free Agent Signings Of All Time

With the free agency period for the 2025 NFL season now underway, many big-name players will find new homes as teams compete to sign anyone and everyone they think they need to help their squad. While many signings end up being good moves, or at least help their teams fill holes at certain positions on […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids: Tight Ends to Buy or Sell (2025)

It's tough to find good tight ends in dynasty fantasy football. Unfortunately, it's also very easy to be stuck with one that sticks around in the doldrums of low production. Such is the case for many TEs, and even those who have good seasons here and there often lack consistency year over year. It's not […]


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids: Running Backs to Buy or Sell (2025)

Running back volume and production is highly mercurial in the NFL. It can thus be difficult to know when to trade away and when to trade for tailbacks. There is constant competition for roles in certain backfields, and red-herring situations are abound due to injuries and plain luck. While some RBs are certainly safe in […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Third-Year Breakouts

Patience can be tough, especially in fantasy football. We want instant production from rookies, but these players often take a while to get going. These youngsters need to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn from their early struggles to break out fully. The third year in the NFL is oftentimes when things […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers - Fantasy Football Outlooks from Florio

Free Agency is the most fun week of the NFL offseason. Even when it is not the strongest class, there is never a shortage of excitement. Players changing teams at a rapid rate. It is a week filled with hope that your favorite team will add stars and that those under-the-radar players you love will […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

Josh Downs Fantasy Football Dynasty Outlook (2025)

The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching. For the last few months, dynasty fantasy football gamers have been meticulously studying the incoming rookie class to gain any edge they can on their league mates. While we should be anxiously awaiting our rookie drafts, we must also take time and analyze how veteran players are valued […]


Tyron Smith Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

New York Jets and former long-time Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL for an extended period of time. He's made five All-Pro teams, two with the first team and two with the second team, been selected to eight Pro Bowls, and earned a spot on […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Von Miller Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller, one of the greatest pass-rushers in NFL history, was released by his team on March 9, 2025. He had signed a six-year, $120 million deal with the team in 2022, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old wasn't able to make it to the end of that contract, so he's now looking for […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Staying Put - Impact Players Re-signed: Aaron Jones, Zach Ertz, Jaylen Warren, more

NFL free agency is a frenzy. As football fans, we love to see the movement around the league. It allows us to dream about the possibility of our team signing a fresh player who could make a serious impact. However, one cannot overlook the impact of re-signing significant contributors. While it is not as exciting […]