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Mitch Blatt gives his picks against the spread, over/under, and on the moneyline. These are the best bets for Week 18. Who will win in the game of the week? Who will win on Monday Night Football? Who should you bet on?
Cowboys wide receiver and novelist Peter Gent remarked in his book North Dallas Forty that the most desirable trait of a football player is the ability to endure pain. When you get late into the season, then "a player who the trainers thought needed rest or even surgery found himself shot full of Novocain facing a grinning Deacon Jones."
Get late enough into the season, and some players on some teams can finally rest. If their team has earned it by either winning or losing enough for the first 17 weeks. There are a lot of games that don't matter for much, like the Ravens' and Lions' home finales, but I still think the Ravens and Lions are in the mood to win, and I picked them here. Others, like Baker Mayfield and his Bucs teammates, will be shot full of dopamine and put it all on the line for a playoff berth.
By now, everyone has experienced their share of pain, even if it's all in your head, whether as a bettor, a fantasy manager, or a fan. If your team misses the playoffs, at least you'll be able to sit back and watch the postseason with detached interest and avoid the pain that's coming to fans of all but one team. Be sure to check out our other betting picks articles and betting and props tools as well.
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Week 18 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (DET -3.5 / DET -189)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 45.5
The NFC North champion Lions are a solid pick in this Week 18 game against a Vikings team that is circling the drains. Yet, the line keeps moving against the Lions, making them an even more attractive pick. At the beginning of the week, Detroit was a 5.5-point favorite. Now, they are only favored by 3.5.
The Lions can't improve their playoff seeding by winning, but they aren't resting their starters. That's not how a Dan Campbell-coached team plays the game. They play to win -- perhaps to a fault (going for two from the 7-yard line and then again from the 3.5-yard line last week were questionable calls). Last season, the Lions knocked the Packers out of the playoffs in Week 18.
This season, they can prevent the Vikings from achieving a pseudo-.500 record. They are still seething with anger that they got called for throwing to an ineligible receiver on that first two-point attempt they claim the refs messed up. They will take their rage out against the Vikings.
The Vikings have only won one of their last six games. They scored three points in that win over the Raiders. They were held to 10 points in two of the losses and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game since Week 10. The Lions have scored 30 or more points in three of the past five games.
Pick: Lions -3.5 (-110)
Week 18 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (DAL -13 / DAL -919)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 47
The Cowboys need this game to win the division and secure home-field advantage in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. And home-field advantage is a big advantage for the Cowboys. The Cowboys are 8-0 at home this season and just 3-5 on the road.
Their road struggles predate this season. In the past two seasons, the Cowboys have averaged a 15.6-point differential per home game, but they have just a 1.6-point differential per game on the road. They have scored 10 fewer points on the road than at home. Dak Prescott is averaging 50 fewer yards on the road, more interceptions, fewer touchdown passes, and a completion percentage 10 points lower on the road than at home.
The problem for the Cowboys is that this game against the Commanders is on the road. Commanders coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Sam Howell are fighting for their careers. I'm not saying the Cowboys are going to lose -- although I would certainly laugh if they did -- but I am saying that Dallas will score fewer points than expected and probably not win by 13.
The Cowboys' scoring will be down from its usual highs, but their defense will still show up and shut down the Commanders. Washington can't get things together. They benched Sam Howell after his struggles continued, but then were forced to start him again because of an injury to Jacoby Brissett. Howell takes too many sacks and throws too many interceptions. The Commanders have scored 20 or fewer points in five of their past six games and seven of the past 10.
Pick: Under 47 (-110)
Week 18 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL +3.5 / BAL +153)
Saturday, 4:30 pm | O/U: 35
The Ravens are still being disrespected. They were 6.5-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. They won by 14. Then they were only three-point favorites the next week against the Miami Dolphins. They won by 37.
Now, they are 3.5-point underdogs at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers! All because Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr., guard Kevin Zeitler, maybe safety Kyle Hamilton, and a couple of other players are sitting out because they already locked up the number one seed in the AFC. But the Steelers are also missing their starting quarterback. Mason Rudolph will have to start again.
Tyler Huntley has proven to be a capable backup for the Ravens. Last season, he completed 67.0% of the passes he attempted and had a 3-2 record in games he played.
Pick: Ravens ML (+153)
Recap
Last Week: 1-0 on Moneyline, 0-1 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 7-8 on Moneyline, 8-15 Against the Spread, 11-6 on Over/Under Picks
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