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Mitch Blatt gives his picks against the spread, over/under, and on the moneyline. These are the best bets for Week 17. Who will win in the game of the week? Who will win on Monday Night Football? Who should you bet on?
Last week, Jake Browning once again struggled against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cincinnati Bengals' streak of good luck ended, although they did have good luck in the games they didn't play; most of the other AFC Wild Card contenders lost, too.
If the Bengals win out, they still have a 92% chance of making the playoffs. However, for the Bengals to win out, they have to beat the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They haven't been intimidated by the Chiefs in the past -- when they had the other J.B. at QB. But the Chiefs aren't as intimidating as they have been in the past either.
Will the Bengals be able to stay within seven of the Chiefs? Will the Ravens be able to beat the Dolphins? Let's dive into the best bets in Week 17.
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Week 17 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 0-1 on Moneyline, 1-0 ATS, Push on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 6-8 on Moneyline, 8-14 Against the Spread, 11-5 on Over/Under Picks
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 47
The Ravens beat the best team in football last week. The 49ers outplayed them in the first half, particularly in terms of "expected points," but the Ravens forced turnovers when it mattered. Their five interceptions were the result of their defensive backs locking down and playing the ball.
Safety Kyle Hamilton was a big part of that, as he has been all season. He made two interceptions and three pass breakups in the game. Hamilton has a knee injury, but he returned to practice on Thursday, so there is optimism he will be able to play this week. Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers (calf), however, has not practiced on Wednesday or Thursday.
The thing about the Ravens, though, is that they have played well despite injuries. They've won without Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Andrews, and J.K. Dobbins at various points throughout the season. The Dolphins, on the other hand, looked dead in the water without Tyreek Hill for most of the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans in a Week 14 loss.
Hill (ankle) practiced on Thursday, and Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) is expected to play despite having missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. But will Mostert be his old self if he's hurting so bad that he can't practice?
Mostert's efficiency has been lagging compared to his early-season prowess. He has only averaged 3.9 yards per carry in the past four weeks. Miami's offense overall has also slowed.
The Ravens are a more solid all-around team than the Dolphins, and they can adapt better to any in-game injury they might face.
Pick: Ravens ML (-172)
Week 17 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 44
I'm going to pick the Bengals again even if I got burned on them last week. The fundamentals are still the same. Jake Browning is still a good backup quarterback. He just doesn't play well against the Steelers.
The Chiefs have a tough defense, too. But their pass rush is not close to as good as the Steelers'. The Steelers have the fifth-best pass rush in PFF's premium stats. The Bengals' offensive line had two of its worst pass-blocking games of the season against the Steelers. Browning was pressured 17 times and forced into five turnover-worthy plays.
That happens against the Steelers. They rank sixth in terms of takeaways, while the Chiefs rank No. 24 in takeaways, and they only have the 16th-best pass rush. They won't be as big of a problem for Browning.
Browning won't need to have a huge game to keep the Bengals within seven against the new-look Chiefs. The Chiefs have been held to under 20 in five of the past seven games. It's hard to pinpoint why exactly the Chiefs are so bad right now. The wide receivers are bad, yes, but they were bad last year, too.
In theory, replacing JuJu Smith-Schuster with rookie Rashee Rice should have made their receiving corps better. Travis Kelce is a year older, and he's still one of the best tight ends in the league, but he's not as good as he was last season when he set career highs in most categories.
The Chiefs might win. They might lose. But I don't think they'll score a lot of points or win by more than seven.
Pick: Bengals +7 (-110)
Week 17 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 36.5
Will two terrible offenses both fold or will two terrible defenses allow their opponents to score at will? I am banking on the defenses getting rolled.
The Broncos are starting Jarrett Stidham, as they are reportedly planning on getting rid of Russell Wilson this coming offseason. Stidham was a top-100 Rivals recruit in 2015, and he played for Baylor and LSU, where he was named to the all-SEC second-team in his junior year, took a step back his senior year, and then was drafted by Bill Belichick in 2019.
In his first two years, he only attempted 46 passes, but he exploded for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 last season when he was in the same situation -- filling in for a soon-to-be-cut Derek Carr. In the final two weeks of the season, he completed 64.3% of his passes for 584 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The Chargers only scored seven points against the Broncos in Week 14, which was Easton Stick's first start. The Lions scored 42 against the Broncos the next week, and the Patriots scored 26, 12 points more than their season-long average. The Broncos just need to win 23-14 to get the total score over 36.5.
Pick: Over 36.5 points (-110)
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