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Mitch Blatt gives his picks against the spread, over/under, and on the moneyline. These are the best bets for Week 15. Who will win in the game of the week? Who will win on Monday Night Football? Who should you bet on?
Hey Dallas Cowboys fans, be prepared to feel disrespected.
The 10-3 Dallas Cowboys are underdogs on the road against the 7-6 Buffalo Bills. "Them Boys" are only 3-3 on the road, with wins over the Giants, Chargers, and Panthers and losses to the Cardinals, 49ers, and Eagles. The Bills' offense has been surging since the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and the Bills are finally getting lucky, winning games on lucky bounces that they otherwise would have lost.
The Cowboys' struggles on the road aren't a fluke. They are due in large part to Dak Prescott's struggles outdoors. His completion percentage is a full 10 percent lower in the elements than it is inside the comfort under the roof of AT&T Stadium (which is almost always closed), and he has a 6:3 TD:INT ratio outdoors. Now, let's get into the rest of the games I'm picking.
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Week 15 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 1-0 on Moneyline, 1-0 Against the Spread, 1-0 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 5-7 on Moneyline, 7-13 Against the Spread, 11-4 on Over/Under Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1.5 / IND -125)
Saturday, 4:30 pm ET | O/U: 42.5
Neither of these teams deserves to make the playoffs, and luckily, one (or possibly both) of these teams is likely to end up missing the playoffs. It's sad that Kenny Pickett hurt his ankle against the Cardinals and missed last week. He is already ruled out of this week's game, too. He was just starting to look good after former offensive coordinator Matt Canada got fired. In the two games post-Canada, Picket had completed 72.1% of his pass attempts for over 10 yards per completion.
If Pickett were starting, I would pick the Steelers, but Gardner Minshew gives the Colts an advantage at quarterback in a matchup in which Pittsburgh otherwise has a slight advantage. Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky has thrown three touchdown passes and three interceptions this season and is averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. He hasn't had a season with a positive TD:INT ratio since 2020.
Interim Steelers offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner doesn't have enough to work with to engineer a half-decent offense. The Colts will outscore the Steelers.
Pick: Colts over Steelers on ML
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (DEN +4.5)
Saturday, 8:15 pm ET
This is the Broncos' last tough test before the end of the season. If they beat the Lions, they are quite likely to win the final five games of the season and finish 11-6 with a playoff bid. The Broncos had a four-week string of games in which they scored over 20 points each and beat the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns.
They slipped up against the surging Texans, and they looked like the same old choke artists, but that can happen on any given Sunday. It's not necessarily a sign that the Broncos reverted to their old ways. Their decisive 24-7 win over the Chargers isn't so meaningful (good or bad) considering the opponent. Now we know the Chargers are the only other team besides the Broncos to have allowed over 60 points in a game.
Meanwhile, the Lions have been slumping. Their defense is getting carved up. They've allowed over 330 yards and 25 points in each of their five games after the bye week. It took some time for Sean Payton and Russell Wilson to figure it out, but their offense is robust now, and they will take advantage of the Lions' shaky defense.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 over Lions
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -9.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 37
The line opened this week at 40. Now, it has been driven down to 37. 92 percent of the cash and 86 percent of the tickets are on under, according to Greenline, but that would seem to include bets that were posted at 40 and 39, too. The new line implies a final score of Miami - 23 and New York - 14, plus or minus one on either side.
While the Dolphins' offense has been declining since its white-hot opening to the season, they have still scored over 23 in six of their past nine games, including 34 points against the Jets in Week 12. The Jets scored 13 in that game, and over 40 hit.
The Jets hitting 13 points is less likely than the Dolphins scoring 23, even if they did just hit 13 in the previous matchup. They have scored 13 or more points seven times this season and only twice in the past six games. If the line was still at 40, it would be an easy under bet, but now that it's down to 37, I am picking the over.
Risks for picking over: RB De'Von Achane and WR Tyreek Hill both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Reasons for optimism: RB Raheem Mostert had a limited practice on Thursday.
Pick: Over 37
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