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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Wild Card playoff round slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
Week 17 was a fitting end to a strange 2017 season. Tampa Bay almost hit the total themselves, proving my under to be the wrong play. However, the Raiders backed it up by taking control late in the first half to easily cash the -1 spread. Overall it was a negative season in terms of winning and units, but we'll look to gain it back in the playoffs as things begin to get more intense.
- Week 17: 1-1 (50%, -.1u)
- 2020 Season: 18-21-1 (45%, -3.63u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for the Wild Card Round of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, -265)
O/U: 47.5
Cleveland has been through the ringer over the last few weeks, in regards to COVID cases throughout their locker room. Luckily, unless something changes, the key players of their offense will be ready to roll. Baker Mayfield has been strong over their L6, throwing for over 1,700 yards with an 11/1 TD/Int en route to a 4-2 record, ensuring the Browns' first playoff appearance since 2002. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have been an immense boost to the offense this year, as Cleveland averages over 148 rushing yards per game. They'll have their hands full against the Steelers front seven, but if Cleveland wants any shot, they'll need to establish the run.
The Steelers dropped the Week 17 matchup with Cleveland but consider they either sat or were missing three key players. And we can't forget that the Steelers ended their 11-game win streak by losing four of their last five games. Ben Roethlisberger should be fresh and ready to go, which is an instant boost for Pittsburgh. However, their lack of a run game is very worrisome. There's no clear-cut option and they've averaged just 64.3 ypg over the L3 and just 84 ypg all season. Diontae Johnson seems to have gotten over his drop issues and JuJu Smith-Schuster finished off the season on a positive note with 15 catches and two touchdowns in the final two games. The defensive unit is near full health, with the exception of Joe Haden (COVID). This is a team that has a sack in an NFL record 73 straight games, though they have struggled against the run of late, allowed at least 127 rushing yards over the L3, but again, they've lost some key pieces.
I'd say it's hard to put any validation in the Browns win over Pittsburgh a week ago, but the Browns' COVID issues were arguably the same level as the Steelers resting key players. Pittsburgh getting Roethlisberger back is a key upgrade in itself, even if he has clearly not been himself when playing. Playoff experience at major positions is going to play a crucial role in this one, and that benefits the Steelers in every way. Sure, the line jumped three points due to the COVID losses, but still under a touchdown favorite is good value for the Steelers at home.
Pick: Pittsburgh -6 (-108, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -175)
O/U: 42.5
Sean McVay and his Rams didn't exactly end the season on a high note, losing two of their last three while averaging just 15.3 ppg. The big news out of LA is that Jared Goff (thumb) is just two weeks removed from surgery and McVay isn't spilling much on his availability but one would have to assume he's suiting up; it's the playoffs. If by some chance he doesn't, former Private Equity Analyst John Wolford will draw the start; he was serviceable in Week 17 but he's not a starting NFL quarterback. Regardless of who's under center, they'll do their best to rely on the run game but aside from Cam Akers' 171-yard performance in Week 14, the three headed unit hasn't proven much of late. They also do not take care of the ball, turning it over in every game this year and averaging 1.6 turnovers a game. Those turnover issues pin a lot of pressure on the defense and they've answered. The Rams allow league-lows in YPG (282) and PPG (18.5).
Seattle is the opposite of LA, ending the season on a four-game win streak to close out the NFC's third seed. This is also the healthiest I think I've seen the Seahawks in some time. Chris Carson, who always seems to be hurt, has played since Week 12 but has disappointed with just three total touchdowns in that stretch, while not rushing for over 100 yards all year. Russell Wilson has bailed him out by tossing 40 touchdowns, but of late he's pulled back a bit, having just two multi-touchdown games since Week 12. His weapons in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are an incredibly dynamic duo, so don't be surprised if Seattle releases them. The Seahawk defense should provide some relief on the offense, as they've performed well over the last few outings by allowing just 15.7 ppg and 338 ypg. If Goff somehow doesn't go, then expect the spread to jump heavily.
With the Rams' prominent pass rush, I expect Wilson to be on the run a lot which is what creates a lot of the excitement in this offense. If they're able to frustrate the Seahawks' passing attack, it could be a long day for the three seed. However, the unsurety surrounding the Rams offense without Goff is enough to target the Seahawks alone, but even if Goff does play, the Rams' three headed rushing approach isn't enough to push favor towards the visitors.
Pick: Seattle -3 (-120, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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