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Okay, folks, I'm about to bring you bad news. If you're reading this, it is because you're trying to get an edge over your league mates to beat them this weekend. That means you're here to get informed on what to do and how to tackle your week's most pressing decisions. The bad news: these will be your final guesses of the first half of the season. It's time to panic because in just mere days, we'll be counting down the days to the season's end instead of looking forward to another week of football. But hey, today is not the time to get depressed. Why? Because in this article, we have new insights from everyone's favorite source, NFL NextGen Stats!
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 7 - TE/WR Air Yards Don't Lie - NextGenStats
If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tell us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed). I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of air yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total air yards.
With four weeks in the books, we can (at least moderately) say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean air yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-4 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 18 targets for both WR and TE.
Cushion / Separation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-6% / 2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.
That's why, in fact, nine of the 11 qualified players with SEP figures of 4.0+ yards after seven weeks are tight ends. The only two WRs are Greg Dortch and Ben Skowronek but they have yet to reach 30 targets this season.
Robert Tonyan, Hayden Hurst, and Tyler Conklin lead the way on the SEP leaderboard all at 4.5+ yards and 36+ targets over the year. Nobody is past a SEP of 4.6 (Tonyan and Hurst) while the last time we checked in Week 4, there were two players (John Bates and Noah Fant) above 5.0 yards.
No player with 50+ targets has a SEP of even 4.0 yards with Justin Jefferson leading the group of those 27 players at a 3.9 SEP. Curtis Samuel and Tyreek Hill, both at 3.6 SEP, follow him.
Kalif Raymond is going to be one of the most-added players through the WW ahead of Week 8 after his Week 7 outing. He has hit the ground running, with the largest CUSH (8.2) among all qualified players through last weekend. Tyler Lockett (8.0) is the only other player with a CUSH larger than 7.7 yards.
Lockett and Chris Olave are the only two players with CUSH marks above 7.1 among qualified players with 50+ targets through Week 7.
Noah Fant (7.2) is the only tight end still averaging a CUSH of more than seven yards through Week 7, with teammate Will Dissly ranking joint-second at 6.9 yards (along with Evan Engram and Cade Otton).
There are 35 qualified players with 45+ targets through Week 7. Their average CUSH sits at 6.1 yards and their average SEP stands at 3.0 yards.
Greg Dortch is the best performer in terms of getting separation after being given ample room to operate. Dortch's 11.6 SEP+CUSH yards lead the NFL with Locket clocking in second at 11.3. Fant, Tonyan, and Dissly are all tight ends in the top-10 of that combined leaderboard.
Of the top-15 players in the SEP+CUSH leaderboard, only two are averaging more than 13 FPPG: Tyler Lockett (14.0) and DeVonta Smith (14.1).
DeVante Parker is the player covered at the closest distance on the LOS (3.4 CUSH) and also the one separating the less from his closest defender (1.6 SEP). He clearly trails everybody in the SEP+CUSH leaderboard with a meager 5.0-yard total distance.
Only two other players, both wide receivers, have a combined SEP+CUSH below 7.4 yards: Michael Thomas (6.4) and A.J. Green (6.8). The first tight end to appear on the leaderboard is David Njoku at 7.6 yards followed by Juwan Johnson's 7.9.
Here is the fantasy report for the SEP and CUSH leaderboards after Week 7:
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 16+ FPPG: 5.9 CUSH, 3.0 SEP
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <10 FPPG: 6.2 CUSH, 3.1 SEP
In a few words: don't rely on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6% / 62%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy points he scores.
This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Every player except Darnell Mooney that appears at the top of the table (all of them with a TAY% of at least 40 percent) is averaging 10+ FPPG.
Only five receivers are getting at least 40% of their team's targeted air yards. Mooney (39) is the only one having done so on fewer than 53 targets through Week 7. Truth be told, Mooney has probably not deserved such a big share considering he's the only WR/TE posting fewer than 10 FPPG among those with a TAY% of 30% or larger.
Mark Andrews is the first TE to appear in the TAY% leaderboard, already down in the 12th position with a mark of 36.7%. The next Raven on the list is Devin Duvernay, down to a share of 21.4 TAY%.
If you want a quick proxy to mediocre/short-on-talent offenses, you can divide each player's TAY% by the number of targets he's gotten. Large resulting values (Mooney, Darius Slayton, DJ Chark, Robbie Anderson, DeVante Parker, Nico Collins) mean that those particular players got most of the team air yardage even on a low volume of targets, so you get an idea of how bad the other options on offense are, or how putrid and barely used the passing game is...
Slayton leads all players on that manufactured TAY%/Target basis with a 1.22 mark. Mooney is second at 1.11. The fact that Slayton leads the way with just 18 targets all year long is quite worrying when it comes to the Giants' passing game. Yes, the 6-1 record is extraordinary, but how sustainable is it?
Slayton (22.0%) is the only player with fewer than 20 targets and a TAY% above 18.6%.
Michael Pittman Jr. (22.8%) is the only player with more than 60 targets and a TAY% below 26.3%.
Chris Olave (16.5) is the only pass catcher with an aDOT larger than 13.7 yards downfield with 40+ targets through Week 7. Terry McLaurin is next, with George Pickens following them at a 13.6 TAY.
Without regard for the minimum targets and among qualified players (min. 18 targets), it is D.J. Chark (18.2) leading the way in the aDOT leaderboard with DeVante Parker coming in second at 17.0. No other player is above 16.4 TAY (other than Olave).
Kyle Pitts has been targeted just 30 times but has the largest aDOT among TEs through Week 7 at 12.1 yards downfield.
As many as 25 tight ends have an aDOT inside the bottom-40 with T.J. Hockenson boasting the larger mark at just 8.0 yards downfield. The bottom-five marks all belong to tight ends.
The only wideouts getting targeted at aDOTs below 5.0 yards are Greg Dortch and Deebo Samuel. They are averaging 11.0 and 14.4 PPR points per game.
All qualified WRs (92) are averaging 10.6 TAY yards compared to the TEs cohort (33) averaging 6.9 TAY yards.
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 16+ FPPG: 9.7 aDOT, 31.3% TAY%
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <10 FPPG: 9.4 aDOT, 15.8% TAY%
Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 82% / 80% / 32% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because well, they hand out actual fantasy points. That's why all but three players in the top-36 fantasy leaderboard through Week 7 have caught at least 23 passes.
The only exceptions are Jahan Dotson (12 receptions), Gabe Davis (14), and Michael Thomas (16).
The other players with double-digit FPPG and fewer than 20 receptions are Sterling Shepard, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah McKenzie, Mack Hollins, and Mecole Hardman.
All 33 qualified tight ends have already caught 10 or more passes and all but three have 20+ receptions through Week 7. Only nine TEs, though, are averaging double-digit PPR points per game, and just two are above 12.4 (Mark Andrews with 16.5 and Travis Kelce with 21.0).
As many as 11 players have seen 60+ targets through Week 7. Of those, only three (Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, and Travis Kelce) have caught more than 75% of those targets.
Will Dissly is still the Catch-Rate champ at 95% albeit on a low-volume 20 targets through last weekend. Dortch has caught 88% of his 25 targets, Tonyan 83.3% of his 36, Njoku 81% of his 42, and Kelce 78.3% of his 60.
DJ Moore has the 19th-most targets (54) so far but he boasts a putrid 50% catch rate. No other receiver with 54+ targets has caught fewer than 56.1% of those passes.
Only eight players have qualified with a catch rate of 50% or worse. DJ Moore is the only one with more than 28 targets still at that rate. D.J. Chark boasts the lowest catch rate in the NFL through Week 7 (min. 18 targets) at 38.9%.
All qualified players averaging 15+ FPPG have caught at least 14 passes and 53.9% of their targets. Only Gabe Davis (14) and Michael Thomas (16) are part of this group while having fewer than 28 receptions.
Among players averaging fewer than 10 FPPG, Robert Tonyan has the most receptions with 30 followed by Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage (both 29).
Touchdowns are so scarce and unique that they should be considered "bonus plays" more than anything else. Jahan Dotson is the most-efficient touchdown scorer with one touchdown every 5.5 targets (four TDs on 22 targets). Gabe Davis (4 on 26) and Will Dissly (3 on 20) are the only other player scoring a TD in fewer than every seven targets.
Diontae Johnson is surely living a scoring nightmare. He has 67 targets but no touchdowns through Week 7. Tyler Higbee has the second-most targets (50) without a touchdown. Only two other players have more than 40 targets without having scored once, Chris Godwin and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Tyreek Hill is the least-efficient multi-touchdown scorer, needing 39 (!) targets per touchdown (two TDs on 78 targets) followed by CeeDee Lamb (2 on 66) and Justin Jefferson (2 on 63). No other player has needed more than 29 targets between touchdowns.
Travis Kelce (seven) and Mark Andrews (five) are the most prolific tight ends through Week 7 in terms of scoring plays. No other qualified tight end has crossed the goal line more than three times.
"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 87% / 78% / negative-2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
Tyreek Hill leads the league once more and after the last time, we checked back in Week 4 (477 yards back then) with 773 total yards through Week 7. That said, the two TD are certainly a low mark considering the league-leading 78 targets he's seen to date.
Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson, the only other players with more than 621 yards, are already separated by at least 117 yards from league-leading Hill.
Kelce leads all tight ends with 495 yards and almost half of those (44.3% YAC) came after the catch.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Corey Davis are the only two receivers with more than 350 yards averaging fewer than 10 FPPG through Week 7.
Only three players (D.J. Chark, Scotty Miller, and A.J. Green) have fewer than 100 yards through Week 7 while still qualified with the minimum 18 targets.
All pass catchers averaging 16+ FPPG with the exception of Michael Thomas (171) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (275) have racked up at least 454 yards.
There are only two players with more than 77% of his yards coming after the catch: Dallas Goedert (81.8%) and Rondale Moore (83.6). Both of them have yet to reach 360 yards on the season, though.
Of the eight players currently boasting YAC% figures above 60 percent, six of them are tight ends. Only Moore and Deebo are wide receivers among those in that group.
Tyler Lockett is the only player with more than 337 yards and fewer than 15% of that yardage coming via YAC.
Scotty Miller has the fewer total YAC among qualified players with 12, followed by A.J. Green's 15. No other player is below 22 YAC through Week 7.
Cooper Kupp leads the league with 320 YAC in total. That figure alone is larger and boasts more yards (before and after the catch) than 79 of the qualified WR/TE this week have reached through Week 7.
Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 8% / 8% / 18%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Kupp is the only receiver to have crossed the 300-YAC mark through Week 7. Justin Jefferson fell one single yard short, though, with 299.
Things look different on a per-reception basis, though, with Kupp ranking a much lower 26th overall and Dallas Goedert leading all players with 11.2 YAC/R. No other player is above Deebo's 9.2 YAC/R.
Randall Cobb and Rondale Moore are the only two receivers with YAC/R averages above 7.5 yards that have not scored a touchdown yet.
Gabe Davis and Rashod Bateman have the largest "overperforming" levels through Week 7 going for a plus-minus of 4.6 and 3.8 YACAE.
All players overperforming to the extent of more than 2.6 YAC/R are posting double-digit FPPG.
Four players are overperforming their YAC/R by between 2.0 and 2.6 yards while still averaging fewer than 9.0 FPPG.
Only three players are underperforming their expectations by -1.5 or more yards: Brandin Cooks, Richie James, and Tyler Lockett. Both Lockett and Cooks are still averaging 10+ FPPG.
As always, you can look at this from two different angles: over/underperformance in YAC related to FPPG, and the other way around.
- Players averaging 16+ FPPG are overperforming their xYAC/R by an average of 0.9 yards
- Players averaging <10 FPPG aren't either over/underperforming their xYAC/R.
From the other perspective.
- Players with YACAE figures above 1.0 yards are averaging 12.4 FPPG
- Players with YACAE figures below 0.0 yards are averaging 8.8 FPPG.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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