Yankee Yo-Yo: Bronx Bombers to Buy or Sell in Fantasy

August 22, 2020

Jamie Steed evaluates the New York Yankees roster for fantasy baseball value to determine who is a buy, sell, add, drop, or hold around midseason of the 2020 MLB season.

For most teams, we've now reached the 20+ game mark of the season meaning we are over one-third of the way through this shortened season. There are of course some exceptions with teams needing to make up games missed after Covid-19 outbreaks but for the most part, we have enough data on how things are going to start making roster decisions based on statistics rather than where you drafted a certain player.

One team which has avoided much disruption from the Covid-19 outbreaks is the New York Yankees, which is good news for us fantasy players as they represent one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses. Although the Yankees have missed most of the schedule disruption so far, the last two weeks have seen some significant roster problems with a flurry of key injuries coinciding with their star closer return from the Covid-19 restriction list.

We're going to take a look at the fantasy impact of the recent Yankees news, how the injuries will affect your rosters and ways to capitalize on the activity both short-term and long-term.

Outfield

This is the more complex portion of the Yankees' current roster dilemma but also has the potential to be the most impactful in fantasy. The Yankees outfield sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both hit the IL within a few days of each other. Stanton is expected to be back in early September from his hamstring injury, while Judge was only placed on the IL as a precaution with the most minor of minor calf strains and is expected back as soon as eligible this weekend.

When Stanton hit the IL, the expectation was for Mike Tauchman to get everyday playing time. This seemed optimistic however as Stanton had been exclusively used as a DH and since he went on the IL, the DH spot has been used by Mike Ford (four times), Clint Frazier (twice), Gary Sanchez (once) and Miguel Andujar (once). Only when Frazier is the DH, does that open up any more playing time for Tauchman. In fact, from the time Stanton went on the IL, Tauchman didn't start a game until Judge got hurt (August 12th). Since then, Tauchman has only started in four of the Yankees' six games.

Frazier has started in all six games in which Judge and Stanton have been on the IL and has been the Yankees best hitter in that span putting together a .409/.458/.818 slash line with two homers, eight RBI and scoring three runs. Tauchman has been no slouch himself this year as he's put up a .333/.412/.444 slash line with four stolen bases but is yet to hit a home run. It has been clear that Frazier's benefitted more from the slugging duo's injuries than Tauchman has so far and Frazier's power shouldn't be in question at this stage.

When Judge returns (potentially this weekend), I expect the Yankees will use him as a DH more going forward as a precaution especially as the calf issue was blamed on playing three days running on turf. Given that will mean less playing time for Ford and allows the Yankees to utilize the plethora of outfielders they have, it seems like the best option for them to put the most productive lineup on the field.

That will free up the spot in right field which Tauchman and Frazier will likely share time at. Although Tauchman does have the stronger side of a potential platoon and is the better defensive outfielder of the two, the Yankees appear to favor Frazier's bat. When Judge does play the outfield, Frazier is more likely to be the DH than Tauchman so I expect Frazier to have a significant role in some form when Judge returns.

There is another wrinkle in the Yankees outfield as Brett Gardner's bat continues to run cold and Aaron Hicks is still working his way back from Tommy John Surgery. As long as Hicks is healthy, he will be the regular center fielder for the Yankees. His plate discipline (21.3% BB%) alone is enough to keep him in the lineup and being a switch hitter should prevent any possible platoon. Gardner is still hitting below .200 and despite a 15.5% BB%, still only has a .167/.293/.396 slash line. He's sat out the Yankees first two games to start this week and appears to be losing his spot in the lineup if he hasn't already. That should open up more playing time for Tauchman and Frazier too, who have similar Major League career numbers at this point.

Going forward, if you roster Judge and/or Stanton, you keep them and hope they can stay healthy for the remainder of the season. I understand frustrations with their health and wanting to trade them but you get so much less for players on the IL. And did you really expect either of them to go through this season without an IL stint at some point? If you do want to move on from either, you're better off waiting until they return, play a handful of games and then look to flip them. Depending on your trade deadline, that might be too late for teams rostering Stanton.

Hicks is playing almost every day and hits in the top half of the lineup so should be rostered in all leagues, especially those counting walks/OBP. Frazier looks in line to play regularly until Stanton returns, especially if Judge sees more time as the DH. When Stanton returns, Frazier should still see action in left field, especially against left-handed pitchers. Tauchman appears poised to take over Gardner as the regular left fielder for now but could find himself in a timeshare with Frazier when Stanton returns.

Frazier is a must-add in all league sizes while Tauchman is more of an option in 12+ team leagues. Both are having productive seasons and when they are in the Yankees lineup, you likely won't have better options to warrant them not starting for your fantasy teams. It is entirely feasible the Yankees lineup consists of Stanton as the DH, Judge in right, Hicks in center and Frazier/Tauchman platooning in left when (or if) all are healthy.

Second Base

The Yankee injury bug didn't stop at Stanton and Judge, as DJ LeMahieu left Saturday's game with a sore left thumb which was later diagnosed as a sprain. He joined Judge and Stanton on the IL and is expected to miss 2-3 weeks, although there is still a small possibility of season-ending surgery. If LeMahieu needs surgery he's an obvious cut in redraft leagues, but until such time, he's someone you put on your IL and keep until he returns.

Now, what about LeMahieu's replacement? Miguel Andujar took his spot on the active roster and there was a school of thought that Andujar would play third base, Giovanny Urshela moves across to shortstop and Gleyber Torres shifts to second base. That hasn't happened in the three games since LeMahieu's injury. Tyler Wade started at second base the first two games and Thairo Estrada filled in the next two days. In all four games, LeMahieu's replacement has hit ninth in the lineup.

Although this could pan out as a platoon with Wade being a left-handed hitter and Estrada hitting right-handed, both have started against a rightie and leftie on the mound. Wade is still more likely to get the greater share of playing time at second base in LeMahieu's absence given he started the season on the active roster, but Estrada did homer on Monday night while playing third base to give Urshela a day off which is likely why he got the start at second base the following two days. Estrada didn't take advantage of the opportunity, going 1 for 6 with four strikeouts in those two games. Both replacements are predominately a glove-first player and you may be forgiven in thinking neither has any fantasy relevance. But that isn't strictly true.

If as I suspect, Wade gets the greater share of starts at second base, he can help tally some stolen bases and some runs in the time LeMahieu is out. Last season, Wade appeared in 43 games (28 starts) and stole seven bases without being caught. Despite just five starts this year, Wade has scored four runs with two of them coming as a pinch-runner so the Yankees have faith in him on the basepaths. The Yankees also haven't been afraid to get Wade to bunt for a hit during his time in the Majors which will help his average and stolen base opportunities.

While Wade isn't someone I consider a must add, if you are in need of steals then Wade should certainly be on your radar in leagues of 14+ teams. Although batting ninth isn't ideal, it does mean when he gets on base he'll have the top of the Yankees lineup coming up behind him. Wade will need to improve on his .190/.292/.238 slash line, but he's unlikely to hit a home run and his value comes from what he can do once he gets on base. As long as he can improve his OBP to nearer last year's .330 mark, Wade can bring you some fantasy value with steals and runs.

If Estrada finds himself in front of Wade in the pecking order, he too is someone worthy of consideration in deeper leagues as a stolen base contributor. He's tallied 52 steals in 454 Minor League games and also has a career .280/.337/.389 slash line in the minors. While Estrada isn't much of a power threat either, he does hit for a solid average as shown by his .274 Major League batting average in his 78 career plate appearances so could find himself a better real-life and fantasy option than Wade.

Closer

Aroldis Chapman returned to the bullpen this week after missing the start of the season due to a positive Covid-19 test earlier at the preseason camp. Now healthy, Chapman came on to pitch in the ninth inning on Monday night with a four-run lead. After inducing a soft lineout, he gave up a triple and a double before striking out the next two hitters to seal the victory, albeit without getting a save. Importantly for Chapman, his fastball velocity was where it usually is with six of the 11 fastballs he threw topping 100 MPH. Chapman threw 14 of his 20 total pitches for strikes so while the two extra-base hits weren't ideal, there doesn't appear to be any concern stemming from his first outing of the season.

With Chapman back, where does that leave the interim closer Zack Britton? Britton had been exemplary closing games during Chapman's absence, converting all eight save opportunities with his one loss coming after entering a tie game and giving up the winning run. That changed on Wednesday night when he was tagged for his second loss after giving up two runs (one earned) in the eighth inning of a tie game. Britton stuck out Austin Meadows to end the seventh before coming back out in the eighth. The unearned run was due to Britton failing to catch a soft toss while covering first base to lead off the inning which was followed by a walk, a fielder's choice out and two singles.

After the games, it emerged that Britton had a hamstring issue and now could head to the IL himself. Given Britton had a 1.08 ERA from his 8.1 IP before Wednesday night, the hamstring issue does appear to have been the cause for his disappointing outing against the Rays. Britton has thrown his sinker 80% of the time this season and if we look at the pitch percentage by location prior to Wednesday, you will see why hitters find it so difficult to get hits against Britton.

Compare this to Britton's pitch chart against the Rays on Wednesday night:

The two green "in play" dots up in the zone were the two base hits Britton coughed up before leaving the game so the outing was pretty out of character given his usual pitch location. Because of this, I'm prepared to put down the bad outing to his apparent hamstring injury.

For fantasy purposes, we'll assume Britton has to go to the IL. If he does, then Adam Ottavino is likely the next in line to be Chapman's setup guy. So far this year, Ottavino has a near-identical line to Britton's before Wednesday; 8.1 IP, 1.08 ERA and nine strikeouts. Because of Aaron Boone's refusal to have anyone pitch three days running, Ottavino could see save opportunities as long as Britton is out. In leagues counting holds, he is someone who should be rostered and is a viable option in 12+ team leagues for the help he'll offer in your ratios alone.

If Britton does avoid the IL (or when he comes back from a potential IL stint), he should be back as the next in line for saves and should resume as the everyday setup guy for the Yankees, bumping Ottavino back a place in the queue. If you have a spare IL spot available to use on Britton, do so but he's certainly not a must keep and can be cut in any league if he misses time.

Conclusion

Any roster change with the Yankees demands fantasy consideration purely based on their collective production. When three players who were all drafted inside the first 70 picks all go on the IL at the same time, that will garner even more attention when looking for their replacements. The Yankees outfielder replacements carry the most fantasy intrigue as they both have hit well and been productive when they play, opening a door to more playing time which will only inflate their value. All of the current IL players we've covered should return in time to contribute throughout the final third of the season and there's no reason to suspect their production will diminish so should be held on to as potential fantasy title winners down the stretch.

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