West Region: March Madness Bracket Predictions and Picks

March 14, 2022

NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the West Region. Read Seth's March Madness picks, sleepers and busts including teams to target and avoid.

March Madness is officially here, so let's fill out some winning brackets! RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Today we'll be taking a look at the West Region and my bracket picks.

I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in to help you make the right tournament bracket decisions. Below I analyze the top four seeds, a potential bust, and a potential Final Four candidate. Hopefully, my college basketball predictions can help you win your March Madness pools. I really like to use Ken Pomeroy's advanced analytics to help determine a champion. Since 2002, each team to win the title except for one was ranked top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I'll be putting those numbers in parentheses after each breakdown of the top-four seeds. Now let's get to it.

Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets including other predictions for the East, South, and Midwest regions.

West Region Top Four Seeds 

Top four seeds: No. 1 Gonzaga | N0. 2 Duke | No. 3 Texas Tech  | No. 4 Arkansas

Gonzaga is the team to beat. They may not have played many top teams down the stretch as they're in the West Coast Conference, but still did what they had to do winning nearly every game. The Zags have two big men; Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme. That in addition to stealth shooters is too hard to stop. (Ken Pom: #3 offense, #7 defense)

Duke should have no difficulty getting through the first weekend with a first-round matchup against CSU-Fullerton and then against either Davidson or Michigan State. Unless Duke begins to play defense, they will not make it to the Final Four. That and the pressure of being Coach K's final team will weigh on them each round (Ken Pom: #7 offense, #44 defense)

Texas Tech has a great defense and can go toe-to-toe with any team. They have a starting five of seniors and juniors. They had a heartbreaking loss to Arkansas in the Second Round last year and I expect them to go farther this time. (Ken Pom: #65 offense, #1 defense)

Arkansas is a tough team to figure out. They seemed to be clicking at the end of February after beating Kentucky and Tennessee, but Saturday's loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Semis was not good. They'll go as far as star point guard JD Notae takes them (Ken Pom: #40 offense, #16 defense)

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup

No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont 

Arkansas is only a 5.5 point favorite in this one which shows you just how close these teams really are. There's no question Arkansas is the athletically superior team. But this game will be played in Buffalo which gives Vermont the home-court advantage. The Catamounts dominated the America East conference and then rolled in the conference tournament winning each game by 30+ points. Total domination. Vermont is a smart, savvy team that can score a lot. They also rank sixth in the nation in field goal percentage. Vermont also has the in-game coaching edge with John Becker. Eric Musselman is a very good coach but his in-game coaching during Arkansas' Elite Eight run last year was dreadful. If Vermont pulls the upset, look for them to take on UConn in the next round with the Huskies advancing.

Bust of the Region

Duke. They should not be a No. 2 seed. The ACC was so weak this year and Duke lost four conference games. They couldn't even win the ACC Tournament. Their defense is putrid and as I said above, the pressure of playing in what could be Coach K's final game every single game will weigh greatly on them.

Final Four Pick

Gonzaga. Boise State or Memphis will pose no problems for the Zags in the Second Round. UConn in the Sweet 16 will be tough but Gonzaga is too much. Texas Tech or Alabama would pose a much bigger threat to Gonzaga than Duke would in the Elite Eight. Still, the Bulldogs are too good.

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