RADIO
Welcome to week ten, my DFS friends. Week nine was a wild one, as we saw a few significant players return from injury to shake up rotations, while others were bitten by the injury back for the first time. If one thing is certain, it's that lineups and rotations are very fluid in this injury-riddled season that features so many grueling schedules for players on the road. Staying on top of minutes and Usage increases are key for sustained success in this industry, whether you're playing Cash, GPP's, or both.
Before I get further off on a tangent on the young talent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore.
Let's take a look.
DFS Value Risers - Week 10
Kyle Kuzma (PF, LAL)
The price point has plummeted across the industry, and now is the time to pounce. Coinciding with this drop in price has been increased efficiency on the court in shooting percentages, a rise in minutes and, seemingly, a solid spot in a rotation that is otherwise tough to predict in the front court. Thus far in 2017, he's turned a lot of heads and could end up being the steal - perhaps along with O.G. Anonoby - of the second half of last year's draft. Thanks to a 578% true shooting percentage on a 21 Usage rate, a 5.5% offensive rebounding percentage and more than two blocks+steals per 36 minutes, he's been a fantasy darling as well. For a minute there, his price was far too steep to play in cash, limiting him to large field tournaments. As it stands now, though, he's a good cash play thanks to his 30+ minutes of nightly action, and his large offensive role and ability to accumulate blocks and steals in a team that operates as one of the fastest in the NBA make him an elite GPP option right now, too.
Kawhi Leonard (SF, SAS)
This is an incredible price point, and just average Kawhi production can crush his price implied total and make him the best value for the rest of the month. A strong performance - like, say, 70%+ from the field - at this price point would have the ability to nearly break the all-time best point-per-dollar production. Despite the value and my excitement for him, I'd lay off for the time being in cash games until he gets his footing - both physically and in terms of having offensive sets called for him. He needs a bigger role (Usage rate) to ultimately be cash game safe. That said, one of the best qualities about Kawhi in fantasy is that he is not scoring dependent to hit value - he's fantastic at racking up steals, blocks and rebounds. Due to the injury we haven't really been able to take advantage of it yet with him, but with the point increase for blocks and steals on FanDuel, he is going to have a far higher ceiling. As soon as he is green lit for 20+ minutes, which should be this week, fire up a few shares in tournaments.
DFS Value Fallers - Week 10
Kelly Olynyk (PF, MIA)
Olynyk has long-been a frustrating fantasy type. He'll throw in a relatively brilliant performance, and then follow it up with three duds. If one thing is for certain, he's unpredictable at best. At this current price point, he should also be on your bench (save for a desperate dart in tournaments on a small slate). In the past 10 days, we've seen his price increase more than 2K on some sites. While the increase in minutes was there thanks to injuries, and in increase in Usage rate was likely most nights, it hasn't turned into many successful outputs. In his past five games, Olynyk has managed to beat value just once. With Jordan Mickey in the picture now as a legitimate contender for front-court minutes, Olynyk's value takes even more of a hit.
Nikola Mirotic (PF, CHI)
I have to give credit where it's due - Mirotic, even after spending time on the DL with a broken face, has come back to the league without any signs of rust, and is lighting it up. He's posting Usage rates in the 30's, and with high efficiency to pair with it, he's churned out some really strong incredible performances. There is going to be some regression, but he is a good shooter. My concern here, outside of just the enormous price hike, is that the Usage rate in the 30's is not sustainable. There are too many young, emerging pieces of this offense (see: Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn) for Coach Hoiberg to only run plays through his veteran power forward. I still think he's worth a shot in tournaments - especially as the price may score would-be suitors away - but he's much too pricey for cash games with the looming uncertainty about Usage rate.
