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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, May 19th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
After a miniature hiatus, we are back with some NBA Playoff props on MonkeyKnifeFight.com. Sadly, there will only be two contests a night due to playoff scheduling, but we are going to pump out daily projections for each game until the NBA Finals start. With so few games, our only options are the ones MKF gives us, so we'll have to do our best in taking the most optimal bets. For Wednesday, we have the San Antonio Spurs playing at Memphis and the Golden State Warriors traveling to L.A. to face the Lakers.
Both games have a certain trajectory they are expected to follow, but add in X-Factors Ja Morant and Steph Curry into each equation and everything becomes a little muddied. Luckily, that's what we love about this sport and playoff basketball is built around no-name players carving their own path while known superstars build upon their legacies. If anything, make sure you are only taking the over on players who actually know how to score the basketball. Playoff defenses tend to know how to disrupt an offense and force players into situations they aren't comfortable with, so knowing that, understand there won't be a single penny bet on Dillon Brooks for however long the Grizzlies are playing post-season basketball.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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SAS @ MEM
DeMar DeRozan (SAS) MORE 24.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) LESS 21.5 Points
Initially, the line here was for DeMar DeRozan and Dillon Brooks, but as of the last hour or so, Ja Morant found his way in as a replacement. If that isn't enough to scare you away from taking the over on either Morant or Brooks, there isn't much that can sway you. Neither Grizzly has been a consistent source of scoring all season, and the stakes have risen considerably from their regular season matchups. San Antonio is going to pack the paint since the Grizzlies can't shoot and that will literally be enough for Memphis to start scrambling for offense.
To make things worse for the Grizzlies, they face DeMar DeRozan, one of the few players that has made a career off being virtually un-gaurdable. You can talk about his lack of spacing, but his physicality and aggression when the ball is in his hands creates enough space for him to drive, hit the mid-range or dish it out to the wing. In nearly every close-game the Spurs played, DeRozan is the one with the ball. Even if it didn't always equal points or a win, DeRozan did what he had to do and did it well. Add in players like Rudy Gay, Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, or Patty Mills and the Grizzlies are going to be dealing with more than just DeRozan's relentless attacking.
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GSW @ LAL
Stephen Curry (GSW) MORE 35.5 Points - LeBron James (LAL) MORE 26.5
With a 35.5-point over, it still seems almost ridiculous to fade Stephen Curry. There is one player the Lakers need to stop and it's asking a lot, even if Los Angeles had the personnel to do so. Curry has been the best offensive player this season and if the Lakers can stop him or hold him to less than 30-points, that's as good as they are going to be able to do. Curry is not exactly the person you want to test, but if he does have a bad night, the Lakers will run away with a victory, sweat-free, and the Warriors won't be able to do anything about it. Both teams fully healthy, it's hard to see Golden State coming away with a win unless Curry has one of the best games of his life.
LeBron James has a much easier path to success tonight, but that's the case pretty much every game. The Warriors defense isn't as bad as they are on paper, but Anthony Davis and LeBron James usually cause teams to crumble up that paper and toss it away because there is really nothing you can do in terms of guarding them, even if they were having a bad night. The Lakers should win and James shouldn't have to go super-mega-nuclear like Curry will have to, but in case Curry is able to keep this game close, James will follow with just as big of a game, just in his own LeBron James-like way. This game has a lot, almost too much, variance involved which ultimately breaks down into "how well is Curry playing?"
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