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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 31st, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
It's the middle of the week and after only four games Tuesday, Wednesday rebounds with a massive 10-game slate. Although speculation will get you in trouble, as we near the end of the season, you need to pay attention to lineup announcements and roster changes. Teams will not be sending out their very-best players, utilizing their very best schemes just to steal a win. The best way to encapsulate this is by looking at the Milwaukee Bucks. On March 27th, the Bucks rolled out what had to be their worst starting lineup this season, but it wasn't for nothing.
Since the Knicks will likely make the playoffs, and there is a good chance they could face the Bucks, the fewer minutes they are allowed to become familiarized with Giannis Antetokounmpo's style, the more it favors the Bucks as a whole. This will start to become more common around other teams, so although you have nothing to worry about in terms of losing money on MonkeyKnifeFight.com, if you also play DFS, this could either break you or send you laughing to the bank.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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POR @ DET
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 27.5 Points - Jerami Grant (DET) LESS 20.5 Points
It's hard to imagine a lot of people have been willingly watching the Pistons this season, and based on the Blake Griffin takes, you'd know they haven't. So although Detroit is not nearly as bad as their record may seem, they are much worse now from when the season started. Their defense and top scorer have both taken multiple steps backwards, and even though they have a few drops of talent spread throughout the roster, it's not really a combined effort anymore.
They will get dissected by Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum tonight despite Delon Wright being able to hold his own. The points are a much harder sell, but Lillard only has to score 44 FPTS to break the threshold. Points or no points, he will contribute. Jerami Grant, on the other hand, is like trying to sell someone a rock that floats. Sure, you can skip a rock and make it look like it won't sink, but eventually, all rocks hit the bottom. Jerami Grant is a boulder.
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HOU @ BKN
James Harden (BKN) MORE 27.5 Points - Christian Wood (HOU) MORE 20.5
The best part of the Brooklyn Nets being overloaded with superstars is that they play superstar defense. Also known as not playing defense. This will work for us in multiple ways, very similar to how the Nets-Timberwolves game played out. The Nets frontcourt is going to struggle, while they are carried by whatever Harden and Kyrie Irving can toss up. For the Rockets, it's come down to John Wall, Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood doing, literally, everything they can to provide some support for the rest of this roster.
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NYK @ MIN
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) MORE 24.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 23.5
Despite this seeming like a low projected for both, the Knicks are going to slow this game down as much as they can. Minnesota isn't the team to take control of games like the Knicks, so although these two are going to be the main contributors, the overall production is going to be limited. Julius Randle gets his attempts every game, but he's not afraid to accept that he's not having a good night shooting. His supporting cast consists of players that are more than capable of hitting shots, so even though they absolutely need his offense, his scoring is not nearly as guaranteed as his overall playmaking.
Since the Timberwolves don't have that designated player to focus on defense, it's unlikely Randle is kept out of the paint. For Karl-Anthony Towns, who prefers to play more like a guard, working from the outside-in, this is still a top defense he has to power through. Since strength isn't his style, look for him to be taking more shots and looking for cutters rather than just bumping around down low to draw contact. Unless he's just not missing from deep, it will take serious effort for him to produce. He's also lucky Mitchell Robinson is hurt.
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SAC @ SAS
De'Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 27.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) MORE 21.5
If you like debating with yourself for hours on end, questioning the ability of top-tier NBA coaches and players alike, then this is your game. De'Aaron Fox is averaging 35 points over the past four games, but is facing, arguably, the most disciplined team in the league that loves isolating productive players in hopes that the rest of the team can pick up the slack. Even if this was the playoffs, and Coach Gregg Popovich specifically came out and said the Spurs are game-planning to stop Fox from scoring, it's not certain that the Spurs players would be able to physically do that.
For the Kings defense, they will have just as much trouble trying to defend the paint from players who do everything they can to get easy looks. DeMar DeRozan is the captain of that offense and even against some of the league's best paint protectors, he still gets to where he wants. Usually, DeRozan will defer offense to the hot hand, but tonight, it's more likely that the hot-hand is him if he only has to worry about Richaun Holmes defending the paint.
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