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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, March 1st, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Not a huge Monday slate with seven games scheduled, and out-of-conference games don't exactly increase the appeal. Right before the All-Star Break, players who have been unavailable most of the season are trying to make the most of their minutes, for example Evan Fournier and Justise Winslow. While superstars are arguably easing their workload in hopes getting some extra rest before the break.
With rotational players and bench players both getting more minutes despite seemingly coming out of the woodwork, situations like that are going to pull from top players. With these out-of-conference games, recognize the playoff implications here and if it's not set to be a high-scoring game, don't get too caught up in the competition.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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DAL @ ORL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 28.5 Points - Nikola Vucevic (ORL) MORE 25.5 Points
Both Luka Doncic and Nikola Vucevic have already dropped a full point since 12AM CST, so look for the totals to even out as it gets closer to game time. With the expected pace of this game, it's not a guarantee there are going to be a ton of point scored, and lately, Doncic has been playing a supporting role on offense. He's not entirely demanding usage, but rather using his ability to control the game to involve other players and let their pace help direct scoring. It hasn't worked perfectly, but with Kristaps Porzingis slowly returning, Doncic' overall output is going to be determined by how well the rest of the Mavericks play, and whether or not they keep games competitive enough for Doncic' scoring to be needed.
Vucevic on the other hand, is the total opposite. Without his scoring, the Magic are barely able to stay afloat, and even with Evan Fournier playing well, there isn't enough spacing in the frontcourt for the Orlando guards to consistently score. Every game the Magic have played this season, Vucevic is the primary scorer and is fed the ball until they know what type of night he is going to have in terms of scoring. Dallas frontcourt has height and length, but they don't have the defense capable of limiting Vucevic when he is playing even halfway decent.
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UTA @ NOP
Zion Williamson (NOP) MORE 26.5 Points - Donovan Mitchell (UTA) MORE 25.5
Even the best defenses have no answer for a talented player performing at their best, and while this isn't necessarily Williamson at his best, the defense needed to stop him isn't on the Jazz roster. In fact, the Jazz defense might be in for a serious struggle if Rudy Gobert isn't able to get his timing right against not just Zion, but the primary ball handler for the Pelicans. Since Gobert is going to be responsible with controlling the paint and keeping out players like Brandon Ingram, Steven Adams, and Lonzo Ball, it's going to be a tough task. Utah closes out on shooters and make things tough for players that thrive playing on the perimeter, which isn't Williamson.
For the Jazz offense, Donovan Mitchell will always be the primary playmaker, despite players like Joe Ingles and Mike Conley always getting their fair share of usage. With how Mitchell is playing compared to the Pelicans guards, only Josh Hart has a real chance of keeping Mitchell from the rim. New Orleans frontcourt does have the defense of both Williamson and Adams, but with the Jazz spacing, it won't take but a few threes before Mitchell is creating his own lanes.
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BKN @ SAS
Kyrie Irving (BKN) MORE 26.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) MORE 19.5
Without Kevin Durant, the Nets offense has been fairly predictable. The ball is going to James Harden or Kyrie Irving when they are on the court, and they are going to initiate the offense. They are also going to be one of the players that Brooklyn's role players are going to look to find when they can't get an easy shot off. Regardless, there is no real reason to see a bad game from Irving or Harden, even with the Spurs attention to defense.
DeMar DeRozan had one of his best games of the season last outing, and even with his surge in scoring, the Spurs offense doesn't really encourage consecutive big games, despite them happening frequently. There is no saying who will have the hot hand, but in a battle of scoring between the Nets and the Spurs, it's pretty clear who the frontrunners for usage and production will be. Even when DeRozan doesn't score, he drives with purpose and if anything will look to create for others. Seeing how the Nets defense lacks a true rim protector and defensive specialist, it's hard to see someone who takes pride in getting to the rim, not getting to the rim.
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CHA @ POR
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 31.5 Points - Terry Rozier (CHA) MORE 20.5
The Hornets played against the Kings last night, and heading into the last minute, Sacramento was up significantly and Terry Rozier was having a terrible game. That turned around quickly and because the Kings were not able to pull away in the waning moments of the game, it allowed for Charlotte to close the gap and strike the most opportune moment. Terry Rozier still had a bad game, but based on how much momentum he carried out of the game, it's hard to see him continuing this terrible trend against a team he will be able to score against.
Damian Lillard is another story. There are no teams he plays poorly against, there are only defenses that kept his team down bad enough where Lillard couldn't will them back into the game late in the fourth. The Hornets backcourt is going to have a rough time trying to keep up with Lillard, and if there was an over for assists available, there's a good reason to take the over on both.
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