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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, February 22nd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Not the biggest slate to start off the week, but six games is enough after last nights Clippers-Nets contest, where viewers and, most likely, players were left with a sour aftertaste. Flopping has a very specific part in the game of basketball, and despite the legitimacy of it as a strategy, there is no avoiding it. Players will flop and officials will call it. Just remember that every year in the playoffs, when that last shot is being taken, they aren't calling a foul.
The past few years, the playoffs have been a landscape for ideal officiating. It hasn't, and it'll never be perfect, but letting the players play, while letting the floppers get angry is the way it's headed. This has no real bearing on today's slate of games, but since the last second of basketball stole the spotlight from an entire slate of games yesterday, it seemed worth the time. Tonight, five of the six games tonight fall between 225 and 230 for their point totals, so there will be no shortage of opportunities.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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CHI @ HOU
Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 31.5 Points - John Wall (HOU) MORE 24.5 Points
Looking at the pace of these teams, it's hard to see points not being scored. Over the past five games, however, the Bulls have dropped from third in pace to 14th. It's not a steep enough drop off to assume both LaVine and Wall won't score, but if you are looking for other prop bets in this game, the assist numbers might not reach what you need them too. The Bulls play up and down based on their opponent, and very rarely are they the ones controlling the tempo of the game start to finish.
Banking on Zach LaVine to score over 30 points on any given night isn't really a problem anymore, with his usage and place in the offense, there are numbers to back up why 32 points isn't out of reach. For John Wall, he's been putting up more and more points every game and even though 25 points isn't a guarantee for him, for how much production the Bulls give up in the paint, the chances will be there for him to have a great all-around game at the least.
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MEM @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 29.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 21.5
Outside of centers, the Memphis Grizzlies defense struggles to hold anyone, let alone one of the best playmakers in the league. Going with the under here is assuming Doncic has a bad game, against a bad defense, when a ton of points are set to be scored, is not my cup of tea. For Ja Morant, it's a similar story. There won't be much defense this game, as indicated by the point total, so there are going to be enough chances for both players to hit their over, plus some.
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MIA @ OKC
Bam Adebayo (MIA) MORE 20.5 Points - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) MORE 20.5
Betting on the Heat can get annoying because of their distribution on offense, and no one seems to really be their set scorer outside of Bam Adebayo, who benefits mainly from roaming the paint all game and having a team that is willing to pass. That's enough to warrant 21 points against the Thunder frontcourt who can only really send out Al Horford as support.
Coming off a great game last night, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't guaranteed anything against the Heat defense. They man up against their assignments and even good points guards have struggled to really produce against this team. Even if they can get by their matchup, most of the time they are required to pass out and can't even manage to get assists out of the teams successful possessions. He should score and there is no doubt he will, it's just hard to see it anywhere outside of the 18-21 point range. Since the Heat forces players to make tough shots, it seems more likely Gilgeous-Alexander sees more attempts rather than passes them up to players who have basically established they cannot shoot.
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POR @ PHX
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 31.5 Points - Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 25.5
Based on stats alone, you take the over for both here. Damian Lillard has been playing too well to just bank on a bad game against this defense, but Devin Booker doesn't really qualify as someone you can trust lately to have high-scoring games. The potential is there, but if betting on potential was a thing, we'd all be rich. Booker has games where he scores 16 points in the first half, then basically can't score for the rest of the game, despite his team struggling.
It's hard to predict and against the Trail Blazers, it's tough to see Chris Paul stealing the scoring spotlight once again. The sad part is, it's happened before and it will happen again, BUT, that all being said, with the amount of points likely to be scored, combined with the atrociousness of the Portland defense, it's going to feel silly taking the under.
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