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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for January 4th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Nine game slates offer so much variance that prop bets become one of the most immersive ways to bet on a nightly basis. Not only did Steph Curry score 62 points in a win over the Trail Blazers last night, but the Phoenix Suns almost completed a near 30-point comeback against the Los Angeles Clippers. The NBA is still proving to be a wild-land, but schemes are still becoming easier to track and team-dynamics are easier to dictate with every game.
Overall, tonight's slate isn't the highest scoring compared to the past few nights, so make sure you are checking the pace of the team's playing before taking any overs. Bringing it back to Curry, he is on the second night of a back-to-back, but he faces the Sacramento Kings, a team that lost their last game handily to a James Harden-less Rockets. The upside is maximized with both defenses ranking near the bottom, but all the eyes will be on Curry. There are few players with as much momentum as him, especially after last night.
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CHA-PHI
Terry Rozier (ATL) OVER 18.5 Points - Joel Embiid (PHI) OVER 24.5 Points
These teams are playing each other in consecutive games, so the defensive schemes are likely to change, but both Terry Rozier and Joel Embiid exploited their matchups with ease. Usually Devonte' Graham shoots better, but even if he has a better game, the Hornets didn't score nearly enough points for Rozier to assume a secondary role in the offense. A promising sign is that eight of the nine players in the Charlotte rotation had at least two assists. If one player isn't hitting, they find the few that are.
For Embiid, he is competing for production with the shooters like Seth Curry and Danny Green. For every three they miss, that's another possession for Embiid in the post. There is almost a direct correlation between the 76ers success and Embiid's usage, so while Philadelphia should win, don't expect their shooters to be as efficient and that will allow Embiid to see the extra possessions needed to hit the over.
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BOS-TOR
Jayson Tatum (BOS) OVER 25.5 Points - Pascal Siakam (PHI) UNDER 19.5 Points
The Toronto Raptors defense has the same discipline that made them one of the top defenses in recent years, but anchored by Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher, it's the not the same type of consistency. Players like Brandon Ingram, and in this case Jayson Tatum, are going to score at will. On an individual talent standpoint, Tatum is one of the hardest players to guard, and that's before you really add in the fact that he is part of a scoring tandem. Tatum hasn't scored more than 25 in the last four meetings with the Raptors, but this defense is not the same as the ones he's been facing and you can bet he's ready to prove that to them.
Pascal Siakam has been on the wrong end of the internet's jokes lately, but remember that any casual fan can make a joke about a lack of stats, it takes experience to put money on that slump. Siakam isn't slumping as much as he is owning a backup role in the offense, when he absolutely should. With just two 20-point games through his first five games, it's clear the Raptors are focusing their offense away from simply giving Siakam the ball and letting him work, so the under is fairly safe here with his given track record.
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IND-NOP
Brandon Ingram (NOP) OVER 25.5 Points - Victor Oladipo (IND) UNDER 20.5
After getting MVP chants last game, Brandon Ingram is going to be riding a type of high only few players get. Not only is his incredibly high usage going to stay that way, but the entire Pelicans squad rallies around his offense. The Pacers defense is solid, but that works more into Ingram's hand, especially if we are taking the over here.
The Pelicans defense is not the best on paper, but they are able to slow the pace with their bigs and playmakers, not to mention they have the length and athleticism to end possessions, ranking third in the league in rebounds. Victor Oladipo's stats have been fairly spread out and with how the Pacers offense runs, so he shouldn't see a ton of extra shots in this matchup. With a slower pace, look for him to drive and dish rather than trying absorb contact from someone like Steven Adams or Jaxson Hayes over and over.
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