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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, March 19th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Friday's 10-game slate is projected to offer plenty of variance with out-of-conference teams competing and a few teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Damian Lillard went off for 26 points in the first half against the Pelicans, but finished with 36 on the night. It's clear the return of C.J. McCollum has, once again, done nothing more than inspire Lillard. The Trail Blazers needed more spacing and shooters before McCollum got hurt, so now that he is back, both are set to thrive with truckloads of usage. Outside of Portland, rookie narratives stole the show.
As easy as it is to say LaMelo Ball has run away with Rookie of the Year honors, Anthony Edwards has done everything he can to prove otherwise. Lately, the conversation has shifted away from talent, and more towards who is having a bigger impact. Ball creates gravity, whereas Edwards creates unique offense. Both of them possess the ability to score in bunches, but lately, Edwards has been the more successful player. Until Ball starts hitting his shot and the Hornets start winning because of it, the Timberwolves are going to utilize Edwards abilities until they no longer can, and Edwards has the edge for Rookie of the Year.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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SAS @ CLE
Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 24.5 Points - Dejounte Murray (SAS) MORE 17.5 Points
There's no real doubt when it comes to Collin Sexton's scoring ability, especially when his biggest concern is going to be guarding him at the 3-point line. The Spurs aren't bad defensively, they are just more technical and disciplined rather than invasive and annoying. Sexton, being a smaller guard, blows by just about any defender and his main goal is trying to beat whoever is protecting the rim. Since that's Jakob Poeltl, there's a good chance Sexton won't have to carry momentum into this game because this matchup seems to favor him more than anyone.
For Dejounte Murray, there are literally no guarantees to anything. Of course he will play, and there's no doubt he is going to score a few points. But if you have watched the Spurs more than once, or worse, bet on the Spurs more than once, you learn a few things. Nobody on that team wants to take the shot. They will, oh yes, they will. But every single player on that team knows that if they pass up the smart shot for some selfish, hero-ball nonsense, their minutes are gone. Murray has been the point guard for this team and his minutes won't change because of what he brings to both ends of the court. It's literally just the Spurs.
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SAC @ BOS
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 25.5 Points - De'Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 24.5
Before you view this game as a potential blowout, remember who is playing for this Celtics team. Jayson Tatum just seems to be getting back into his normal form, but outside of the starters, the Celtics are lacking in every department. They need Tatum and Brown to have good games or they lose, badly. The Kings don't defend well on the perimeter and they tend to have the paint wide open at the worst times. Even when Tatum is having an off night shooting he scores at the rim, and that's still against some of the league's top defenders.
Sacramento hasn't been playing teams with point guards who can defend and De'Aaron Fox is taking advantage every chance he can. He's averaging 29 points over the past three games and he's been looking for his own shot more consistently. The Kings don't have the best spacing amongst their starters, but they do have players who can finish possessions. Fox has been scoring more than he has been passing, so if that trend continues, he'll cruise by any projected totals he has.
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GSW @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 21.5 Points - Andrew Wiggins (GSW) MORE 20.5
Stephen Curry is listed as doubtful, so assuming he will return for Saturday's game between these two, Friday's game is up for grabs. The Grizzlies have had trouble keeping games competitive because of their lack of scoring, but without Curry, it'll be easier for them to clog the paint and force other Warriors players to actually hit shots. Since it will be primarily be Draymond Green doing all the work, it's likely Andrew Wiggins is going to find himself with way more open three-point attempts. He won't necessarily settle for those if he doesn't have to, but Wiggins should be seen as Golden State's primary scoring threat for a reason.
Without Steph Curry, the backcourt defense does not improve whatsoever, especially if they decide to start someone like Jordan Poole or better yet, Nico Mannion. Morant played against one of the toughest defenses last game and he gets the chance to rebound against a defense that only has Draymond Green. Morant is in for a big game.
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BKN @ ORL
James Harden (BKN) MORE 27.5 Points - Nikola Vucevic (ORL) MORE 26.5
This is slightly dependent on whether Kyrie Irving is playing, but it's not like the Nets offense can really succeed without James Harden's scoring anyway. Brooklyn doesn't have enough players to hit shots and create offense consistently, so this is pretty self-explanatory. The Magic defense isn't nearly as good as it is on paper and the paint isn't defended well.
Orlando is on the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Knicks by one point, so even though this isn't the best rebound game for the team as a whole, Vucevic is going to gladly welcome the weaker defense.
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CHI @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 26.5 Points - Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 24.5
Everything here seems lined up for both to have great games. The matchup for each is favorable, the only problem is, the chances of this game staying competitive are very low. Denver is a seven-point favorite and it's a serious problem that the supporting cast for Jokic has been playing incredibly efficient basketball lately. Jokic really hasn't needed to score, although this game has easy buckets written all over it. There is no way you'll find me betting the under here, but the Bulls hitting shots against a defense that has been playing better as of late doesn't inspire a lot of hope.
The competitiveness of Chicago's game rely on how well Zach LaVine is shooting. You can buy into the altitude, you can buy into the Nuggets defense, but until LaVine starts to play more of point guard role, he's doing everything he can to take 20 shots a game. The projected point totals should rise for him, but even if it bumps up a few points, there aren't any defensive specialists ready to handle LaVine's ability.
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