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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, March 12th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Although there are seven games on Friday's slate, only five games have been posted so far. We are waiting on the projections for Orlando, San Antonio, Houston, and Utah, but those games are likely to be on the slower, low-scoring end. The Rockets have been slipping recently and despite John Wall and Victor Oladipo producing, together they struggle to get much support from anywhere else, especially now that P.J. Tucker is officially out of the rotation. Kevin Porter Jr. however, is going to continue to have a major impact now that he is back.
With how well the Jazz are playing, it's hard to see their game the Rockets staying competitive, and an out-of-conference game for the Spurs can be a recipe for disaster in terms of betting, but that doesn't mean there won't be any opportunities to cash out on. When those games get posted, it'll be hard to stay away despite the poor circumstances surrounding.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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DEN @ MEM
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 20.5 Points
The Nuggets as a whole have been playing better, but that doesn't mean Nikola Jokic is sacrificing his scoring because of it. If anything, they eventually start to struggle and have no choice but to hope Jokic can bail them out with his playmaking. The Grizzlies are a tough opponent to gauge, simply because it's hard to tell what team Denver will be facing. Will Memphis hit shots and keep it close with their ability to defend with high energy? Or will they just play how they have for most of season and solely rely on Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas, and Kyle Anderson to carry the workload?
If the Nuggets were playing at a contenders level, you could see them rolling right over Memphis on the first night of a back-to-back, but that's not the case and it really hasn't been at any point this season. This is likely to be one of the higher scoring games of the night and the spread is -3.5 in favor of Denver for a reason. Memphis can keep games close and outside of the superstars, there's not enough firepower on the Nuggets roster to ensure anything will come easy. Both Jokic and Morant are going to be needed tonight.
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PHI @ WAS
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 31.5 Points - Tobias Harris (PHI) MORE 20.5
Tobias Harris for 20 points is about as automatic as you can get, but that still requires a team that has him as the primary source of production. Once Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons return, the guarantee falls apart, but for now, ride this train for as long as it will take you. If Bradley Beal was playing like he was earlier in the season, this would be the no-brainer of the night.
Sadly, teams are slowly locking on to Beal and every game is more of a fight just to get him open than it really is him scoring. Without the 76ers best defenders, there is little hope for stopping both Beal and Westbrook, so hopefully their gameplan heading into the night is letting both of them score and just hoping they both don't go for 40.
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CLE @ NOP
Zion Williamson (NOP) MORE 25.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 24.5
The Pelicans weren't able to keep last night's game with the Timberwolves close, but Zion Williamson was able to score and against the Cavaliers frontcourt, the case is still the same. The rest of the Pelicans roster is unpredictable because of their inconsistent shooting, but Williamson has proved himself to be near unstoppable when he gets the ball. There is little that can be done on Cleveland's ends to provide enough resistance to think they will be able to stop Zion from scoring just because Jarrett Allen is there.
The Pelicans backcourt doesn't seem like they would be the ones team score against, but the evidence is there. Collin Sexton doesn't back down against good defenses. Even against a strong paint presence in Zion and Steven Adams, Sexton usually just needs to hit a few shots for him to hit the over since he finishes at the rim so consistently.
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MIA @ CHA
Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 25.5 Points - Jimmy Butler (MIA) MORE 22.5
By all means, stay away from this specific bet. Zach LaVine hasn't really shown much consistency with how the Bulls have been playing and we can't blame him. Granted, he has zero scoring consistency himself and with the threshold being 26 points, there's nothing certain about him having high-scoring games anymore. You might be thinking, well why not take the under then? Because everything on paper says he will have a low-scoring game, but the law of basketball says otherwise.
With the Heat defense locked in, it really just means more chances for LaVine to do whatever he can to score, which is where he thrives. There's just multiple sides to that. Either LaVine carries the Bulls into a competitive game or they get blown out. Either way, the risk outweighs the reward of banking on big game from Chicago. It's a similar situation for Butler in the sense of, a lot of things can happen. With the amount of options Butler has at his disposal, he doesn't need to score unless he has to. Even though his scoring has been utilized lately, it's not where he is focusing and the Heat don't look to get him going as much as they want to get shooters and players like Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk in a rhythm.
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IND @ LAL
LeBron James (LAL) MORE 27.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 20.5
Even without all the starters, LeBron James isn't doing all the scoring and that shouldn't be a surprise. James is the type of player that will score 22 points in the first half, and then finish with 22 points because he spent the latter half of the game trying to get teammates involved. That's just how he plays, and against a team that also likes to slow the game down, outside of James, there aren't any other players that are certain to score.
If there was one player to benefit to the absence of Anthony Davis, it's Myles Turner. The energy he will be able to save on that end of the court is going to translate to offensive production. With how well Domantas Sabonis has been playing as a playmaker and passer rather than post-up option, the Pacers are going to look for him to space out of the offense and free up players like Turner and Malcolm Brogdon, both who have favorable matchups. If Sabonis wasn't playing the passing role and doing it well, you could see him doing nothing but score, but that just hasn't been the case watching Indiana before the break.
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