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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, February 26th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Wednesday's slate of games were overall terrible until the last two games of the night. Nuggets-Wizards came down to the final shot, and Pelicans-Bucks was a close game until the final minute. Thursday has a great chance to make up for yesterday with a nine-game slate, and although most of the games are set to be low scoring, there are still plenty of superstars playing where it's going to be an energetic night of basketball.
The Hornets and Warriors are projected to be the top scoring game of the night, so look for the Bulls-Suns to compete with them for most points scored, while the Kings and Pistons are more likely to find themselves on the opposite end of the scoring spectrum.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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HOU @ TOR
John Wall (HOU) MORE 20.5 Points - Pascal Siakam (TOR) MORE 19.5 Points
Between these two players, only one is certain for production based on their most recent performances. The return of Victor Oladipo was overshadowed by a loss to the Cavaliers, but the Rockets are so limited in terms of options, Wall is set to be the primary scorer every night until Christian Wood returns. No reason not to jump at this point total even with Kyle Lowry checking Wall on defense.
For Pascal Siakam, nothing is really set in stone despite the Rockets frontcourt notoriously giving up points to forwards and centers. The production is spread out as it is, and whoever is hitting for Toronto is going to keep getting fed the ball. Siakam spent all last game in foul trouble, and now that court will have a little more spacing, if he can hit a few shots, 21 points should be easy specifically against this team.
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IND @ BOS
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 24.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 24.5
Where the Celtics have been struggling, the Pacers have been thriving. Indiana has lengthy defenders that can cause problems for Jayson Tatum, and if this game is anything like some of the recent games Boston has played, both the Celtics and Tatum are in for a long night. Indiana is going to own the paint and Myles Turner continues to keep a laser focus on defensive positioning and blocking shots, so Tatum will need to be shooting the lights out to hit the over.
For Sabonis, this has been one of his highest over totals lately, but it's only a reflection of how good he has been compared to the weakness of this defense. The Celtics will have Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis in the paint, but history shows that Sabonis hasn't had much problem scoring on them in the past. Through it all, Sabonis is lined up for a 25+ point game since the Pacers should dictate the pace.
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SAC @ DET
De'Aaron Fox (SAC) LESS 24.5 Points - Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 23.5
Until Delon Wright returns mid-way through March, the Pistons are going to look for two players to carry the load on offense. First will be trying to get Jerami Grant going early every game, with Josh Jackson coming off the bench for support. Grant is a hit-or-miss player and he hasn't shown the same consistency from earlier in the season, but he will still have high-scoring games against bad defenses as the teams leading scorer since he won't settle for just jump shots.
Yesterday, De'Aaron Fox scored 29 points against one of the leagues best defenses, and the task won't get much easier against the Pistons. Detroit's record isn't indicative of their level of play, but Wright was a key piece to limiting backcourt production. Fox will get to the rim, but the Pistons are going to try and take that away quickly to force him to find shooters. Regardless of what happens, Fox has upside in terms of fantasy points, so if you are worried about the point total, the fantasy point total is a safe over.
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UTA @ MIA
Donovan Mitchell (UTA) MORE 22.5 Points - Bam Adebayo (MIA) MORE 19.5
The Utah Jazz are the best team in the league right now, and every night they seem to get better and better. Fully healthy, Donovan Mitchell is still going to be the most important player in the offense, and over the last week, he's averaging 20 shots a game. The Lakers defense isn't anything close to what they were last season, so don't think his last performance is guaranteeing him production. The Heat are one of the top teams at limiting guards, but Mitchell has a hair-trigger and won't let a defense stop him from at least trying to get to his spots.
Bam Adebayo has yet to score 20 points against Rudy Gobert, and with how well the Jazz are playing, it's even harder to see him getting easy shots up. In another segment of the season, Adebayo maybe has a chance, but the Jazz are too good right now to assume they are going to get bested by Adebayo alone. If anything he is going to benefit from Jimmy Butler trying to run the offense, and even then that's not enough to guarantee a 20-point outing.
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