NBA DFS Prop Picks for 12/13 - Monkey Knife Fight

Monday's nine game slate only consists of three intraconference games, with just one game being played between divisional rivals, the Clippers and Suns. Winning in the regular season is pivotal to playoff standings, especially when some of the seeding comes down to tiebreakers. The Cavaliers have been one of the better teams this season, and against all presumptions, they absolutely have the chance to carry this success into the post-season.

Playing the Heat tonight won't be a legitimate test since Miami is still without Bam Adebayo for some time, but winning this game puts Cleveland at 2-0 in the season series against Miami. Winning this game and losing the third matchup in March still gives the Cavaliers the advantage if seeding was to come down to a tiebreaker between the two.

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 SAC @ TOR

Fred VanVleet (TOR) MORE 21.5 Points - De'Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 19.5 Points

It's tough when a player is playing well, but isn't scoring at the rate we need. This basically defines Fred VanVleet's season, especially over the previous week. Now that he is facing the Kings defense that is extremely bad at defending opponents in the paint, VanVleet has upside across the board, mainly because the spacing from his teammates is going to be exponentially more effective at freeing up shooters tonight.

De'Aaron Fox on the other hand, is in a much worse situation, but this can also work to his favor. Even without a consistent outside shot, Fox is repeatedly putting up massive stat lines anchored by his high-scoring ability. Unfortunately, we've seen quality team defenses shut down his ability to involve teammates and make it hard for him to get to his spots, but the Raptors lack the athleticism in their backcourt to keep up with Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. Neither the Raptors or Kings defense is particularly good at stopping opponents individually, but at least the Raptors frontcourt isn't entirely in shambles due to injury.

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MIA @ CLE

Tyler Herro (MIA) LESS 22.5 Points - Darius Garland (CLE) MORE 19.5 Points

The Cavaliers defense is legitimate and their offense is able to drown out opposing teams that can't keep up on both sides of the ball. If Jimmy Butler was playing, Miami would have some type of consistency in their offense, but until that's the case, it's up to Kyle Lowry and whoever is hitting that night to carry the weight. Cleveland has made it tough for anyone to score 20 points on them without help, so there's no reason to take the over on any Heat players tonight, especially when their only sources for offense are shooters that have proved they can't be the only one scoring and still generate wins.

Darius Garland, however, is almost the complete opposite. Since he has been crowned The Usage King of Cleveland, the Cavaliers offense has improved, shown versatility in where they direct their scoring efforts, and most importantly, haven't exerted nearly any of their resources in attempts to win games. Everything Cleveland is doing right now is sustainable, the players look energetic and engaged, and their offense is predictable enough to know who might produce each night. Even against the Heat defense, Garland has so many tools at his disposal that even Bam Adebayo would have his hands full if he were available.

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GSW @ IND

Steph Curry (GSW) MORE 27.5 Points - Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 19.5 Points

Without context, this hasn't been the best week for Malcolm Brogdon. He's seeing drops in his almost all his averages, but the Pacers are winning games. Brogdon is a very consistent player and rarely does nothing, but he's almost too smart for his own good. He will resort to teammates before trying to find his own shot, and since he's a playmaker first, then a scorer, there's no nightly guarantee he'll even need to find his own scoring groove. He has options and he knows that, but he also rarely let's the Pacers lose games without his final say, usually coming in the form of consecutive three-point attempts. That's of course coming from a bettors perspective, and betting on basketball comes with the territory that even the best players have bad nights, but good players rarely have bad nights, so let's indulge on the Brogdon-Stephen Curry matchup.

Stephen Curry is the only player in the league that can miss shots and still require the full attention of a defense. Lately, like Brogdon, Curry just hasn't been scoring as much as normal, but unlike the Pacers in general, the Warriors are 2-2 over their last four games. After losing just two games out of their first 20, Golden State is 3-3 over their last six games and Curry has only hit 30-points one time throughout that span. Crazily enough, in that six-game period, his highest scoring game came on the night with the fewest attempts, so go figure. A slump for Curry isn't really a slump, because he will shoot out of it and each shot is just another opportunity.

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MIL @ BOS

Jayson Tatum (BOS) LESS 27.5 Points - Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 25.5 Points

In the games Jaylen Brown has played this season, Jayson Tatum has only scored 30 or more points one time.  It came against the Rockets during their losing streak, but Tatum is one of those unpredictable players that can score four points in the first half and still finish the game with 35 points. That's a dramatic example, but you get the idea. When these teams played in mid-November, Tatum only scored 27 points and the Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo, it's unlikely he improves on that playing against a better equipped defense this time around.

Looking at the other side and Giannis facing this Celtics defense, 26 points seems much more reasonable. Despite Al Horford and Robert Williams playing quality defense most nights, they don't have the athleticism or size to keep Antetokounmpo from getting to the rim. The only teams that have been able to physically stop Antetokounmpo have been teams with true centers that clog the paint, draw contact, and contest most shots. Horford and Williams contest shots, but they aren't nearly as physical as someone like Dewayne Dedmon or Mitchell Robinson, so it's hard to see them winning this matchup based on technical defending and IQ.

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