Here it is, the final NBA Wednesday of the regular season, and it's a 14-gamer. I'm pretty sad to see it go. On the one hand, a slate where nearly every team is playing is great, and we've got playoffs just around the corner. Those are things to be excited about. On the other hand, it means the end of big slates, thus making it much harder to have unique lineups (and in my opinion, it's not as fun building lineups when the options are limited). That's the sad stuff.
On to the Vegas stuff, though. Specifically, insights we can gather from spreads and point total projections. The most attractive games tonight, from a fantasy perspective, are Denver at Portland (215), New Orleans at Minnesota (214), Memphis at Golden State (213), and the best of the bunch - Sacramento at Houston (222).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/13/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players, to mid-priced options, and value plays on FanDuel.
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FanDuel DFS Guards
Damian Lillard (vs POR, $8,100)
Dollar for dollar, my favorite point on the board this evening. Mr. Curry is a close second, but I'm going to save the dough here and roster Lillard, who has outperformed his price implied point total in three of his last four games. Ahead of the affordable price, the thing that excites me the most here is the matchup. Lillard's opponent, the Nuggets are in the top five in points allowed to opposing point guards. Lillard should be able to exploit the mismatches and run wild.
James Harden (vs SAC, $11,100)
Calling him a bargain would sound a little silly, so I'll stay away from using that term seeing as he's so expensive. However, he has the absolute best matchup of any shooting guard tonight - Sacramento allows more fantasy points to opposing twos than any other team - and both teams play at a very fast pace. It should be a high scoring affair with a fair amount of possessions over the NBA average, benefiting both back courts.
Ricky Rubio (vs NO, $6,300)
I'm going to pick on the New Orleans defense tonight a few times with my roster selections, starting with Ricky. His play has not been all that inspiring of late, but the bright side to that is that his salary has plummeted $800 in the last 10 days. On a night where there are so many great - but expensive - options, you need a Rubio or two in your lineup. He's a guy with an incredibly high ceiling - the type that can be a difference maker in a GPP - and he takes on a very weak defensive unit.
Rodney Hood (at LAL, $5,400)
Not only has Hood exceeded value in eight of his last 10 games, his price is still in a desirable range. Hood has beaten out his price implied value by an average of more than six points per game in the last 10 days, and he has a great opportunity to do so again tonight. This game will be played at a faster pace than the Jazz usually operate with, giving them more offensive possessions for Hood to work with. The Lakers are also not very adept at stopping opposing guards.
Also Consider: Isaiah Thomas (vs MIA, $7,400)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
Rudy Gay (at HOU, $7,100)
Keep an eye on Gay's health status closer to game time as he's currently listed anywhere from Questionable to Probable. Even with that caveat, his projection was too hard to ignore so I couldn't keep him out of my suggested players. Gay has been playing very well, exceeding his price implied production in each of his last five games. That's brought his salary up quite a bit, but keeps him in a range where he can still hit and cruise past value without having a career night. His matchup with Houston tonight is a fantastic one, as they currently allow more points to opposing small forwards than any other team taking the floor this evening.
Robert Covington (at CHI, $6,700)
There are a number of great options at forward in this matchup between the Sixers and Bulls. Covington, priced under 7K, happens to have the best opportunity thanks to a matchup with a beat up Bulls interior. Covington has been a beast this month, too, cruising past his salary implied production in seven of his last nine games, by an impressive average of 6.93 points a night. He should get plenty of looks tonight at the United Center.
Bobby Portis (vs PHI, $5,200)
Sticking with the Philadelphia - Chicago matchup at forward, where Bobby Portis is a great value play tonight. Portis faces one of the weakest interior defenses in the league tonight and on top of that, he's been playing great and getting consistent minutes. He's exceeded value each of his last four times on the floor and should have little trouble doing so again tonight.
Also Consider: Paul Millsap (at WAS, $8,700) and Nikola Mirotic (vs PHI, $5,200)
FanDuel DFS Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns (vs NO, $8,700)
Of all the players taking the floor on this final day of the regular season, my algorithm likes no player more than it does Towns. His play has been a little up and down of late, which brings his price $300 lower than it has been in the past week. As such, he's a pretty good bargain, especially when you consider what a terrific defensive matchup he draws. The Pelicans allow more points to opposing centers than any other team in play Wednesday. Roster Towns and be at ease with your decision.
Also Consider: Jusuf Nurkic (at POR, $4,600)
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