X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NBA Betting Picks - Best Bets for Saturday 3/27

Zion Williamson - New Orleans Pelicans

Thunder Dan Palyo gives his top NBA bets for March 27th. He lays out his favorite picks against the spread, totals, teasers, and parlays, as well as his favorite player prop of the day.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! Thursday night we hit another spread as the Knicks came back after trailing the entire game against Washington to hit two late free throws and cover. Whew, it was a sweat for sure.

The Sixers over just narrowly missed, but I think it was still the right bet and the line moved up consistently all day. I am still kicking myself, however, for not recommending the over in the Sacramento game since it was the highest-rated in my model.

The 3-team money line parlay hit, which made it a profitable night for me. Tobias came up two rebounds short of his prop, though, dropping my props record to 0-2.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

There are nine games on tonight's card with the first games tipping at 8:00 PM Eastern. For those who are joining me for the first time, let's start with an overview of how I approach betting and DFS in the NBA on a daily basis.

 

Overview

For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.

I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, March 27th, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

  • Season Record 4-4
  • Against the Spread 2-0
  • Over/Under 1-1
  • Teasers/Parlays 1-1
  • Player Props 0-2

 

Against the Spread

Dallas Mavericks (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans

I am trying to figure out how Dallas is favored on the road here and I am a bit stumped. They were handled by the Pacers last night despite a big game from Porzingis, who tried his best to carry the load since Doncic was out. Luka has a bad back and I would be somewhat surprised if he's feeling better by today. Even if Luka plays, Porzo logged 38 minutes last night and could be rested on the second half of a back-to-back leaving Dallas one star short again.

The Mavs simply don't have much firepower on offense when they are missing Luka or Porzingis and they're a subpar defensive team all the time. While the Pelicans have their struggles on defense, they are an elite offensive team and Zion Williamson is taking the league by storm. He had another huge outing last night and could dominate this Dallas frontcourt in this one.

The Pelicans are 7-3 against the spread this season as home dogs, winning all seven of those games - not just covering. I won't be surprised to see this line move towards New Orleans today and once we get word that at least one of those Mavs studs is out, we could even see the Pelicans favored. Jump on New Orleans now to maximize value.

The Pick: Pelicans ML (+104 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Over/Under

Chicago Bulls (+3) @ San Antonio Spurs (223.5 total)

It's a tough card for totals as not many games really stand out in my model today. But this one really does as I have it pegged for only 218 points. After starting out the year as a team that was playing solid offense but no defense, the Bulls have reversed course and started to play better defense. They've also slowed down their pace of play considerably, and that's a trend I think we see continue as they should play through newly acquired center Nikola Vucevic quite a bit on offense in the half-court.

The trends all line up here nicely, as the Bulls are now hitting the under at a 51% rate and the Spurs at a 57% rate. I mentioned the pace for Chicago already, but the Spurs are playing slower lately, too, and the difference in the projected pace of this game based on each teams' last ten games is a full five possessions slower when compared to their season averages.

The Pick: Under 223.5 (play all the way down to 221)

 

Teaser/Parlay

I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.

Today I am going to keep it simple. I like the Pelicans as home dogs, as I mentioned earlier. But I also like the Bulls as road dogs against a struggling Spurs team. I have the Bulls and Spurs rated really closely in terms of their overall team quality, but I think the addition of Vucevic is really going to improve Chicago's offensive consistency and rebounding.

I can parlay both underdogs for some nice odds here. I think both teams could easily be favored. Here's what it looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

Player Prop of the Day

This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. Today I am targeting one of my favorite fantasy players, Pelicans guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Better known as "NAW" in NBA circles, the second-year guard is coming on strong as a member of the Pelicans rotation and has performed well in spot-starts when Lonzo Ball is hurt. He will make his fourth-straight start tonight in a great matchup against the Mavericks, a team that has allowed some serious production to the point guard position this season. NAW has hit the over on this prop three straight times and the guaranteed minutes and positive matchup make me think he will do it again.

The Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 23.5 PRA (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)

 

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event